Predicting the risk of an endemic focus of Leishmania tropica becoming established in South-Western Europe through the presence of its main vector, Phlebotomus sergenti Parrot, 1917. 2013

S D Barón, and F Morillas-Márquez, and M Morales-Yuste, and V Díaz-Sáez, and M Gállego, and R Molina, and J Martín-Sánchez
Departamento de Parasitología, Facultad de Farmacia, Universidad de Granada, Campus Universitario de Cartuja, 18071 Granada, Spain.

The aim of the study was the construction of risk maps for exposure to Phlebotomus sergenti, the main vector of Leishmania tropica, with a view to identifying hot spots for the potential establishment of this parasite in the southwest of Europe. Data were collected on the presence/absence of this vector and the ecological and climatic characteristics of 662 sampling sites located in the southeast, centre and northeast of the Iberian Peninsula (south-western Europe). The environmental factors associated with the distribution of P. sergenti were determined. The best predictors for the presence of this dipteran were ‘altitude’, ‘land use’, ‘land surface temperature’, ‘aspect’, ‘adjacent land cover’, ‘absence of vegetation in wall’ and the ‘absence of PVC pipes in the drainage holes of retaining walls’. Risk maps for exposure to the vector were drawn up based on these variables. The validation of the predictive risk model confirmed its usefulness in the detection of areas with a high risk of P. sergenti being present. These locations represent potential hot spots for an autochthonous focus of L. tropica becoming established. The risk maps produced for P. sergenti presence revealed several areas in the centre and south of the Iberian Peninsula to be the most prone to this process, which would make it possible for the disease to enter south-western Europe.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007303 Insect Vectors Insects that transmit infective organisms from one host to another or from an inanimate reservoir to an animate host. Insect Vector,Vector, Insect,Vectors, Insect
D007895 Leishmania tropica A parasitic hemoflagellate of the subgenus Leishmania leishmania that infects humans and rodents. This taxonomic complex includes species which cause a disease called Oriental sore which is a form of cutaneous leishmaniasis (LEISHMANIASIS, CUTANEOUS) of the Old World. Leishmania (Leishmania) tropica,Leishmania tropica minor,Leishmania leishmania tropica,Leishmania tropicas
D010691 Phlebotomus A genus of PSYCHODIDAE which functions as the vector of a number of pathogenic organisms, including LEISHMANIA DONOVANI; LEISHMANIA TROPICA; Bartonella bacilliformis, and the Pappataci fever virus (SANDFLY FEVER NAPLES VIRUS).
D005060 Europe The continent north of AFRICA, west of ASIA and east of the ATLANTIC OCEAN. Northern Europe,Southern Europe,Western Europe
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000818 Animals Unicellular or multicellular, heterotrophic organisms, that have sensation and the power of voluntary movement. Under the older five kingdom paradigm, Animalia was one of the kingdoms. Under the modern three domain model, Animalia represents one of the many groups in the domain EUKARYOTA. Animal,Metazoa,Animalia
D012306 Risk The probability that an event will occur. It encompasses a variety of measures of the probability of a generally unfavorable outcome. Relative Risk,Relative Risks,Risk, Relative,Risks,Risks, Relative
D015233 Models, Statistical Statistical formulations or analyses which, when applied to data and found to fit the data, are then used to verify the assumptions and parameters used in the analysis. Examples of statistical models are the linear model, binomial model, polynomial model, two-parameter model, etc. Probabilistic Models,Statistical Models,Two-Parameter Models,Model, Statistical,Models, Binomial,Models, Polynomial,Statistical Model,Binomial Model,Binomial Models,Model, Binomial,Model, Polynomial,Model, Probabilistic,Model, Two-Parameter,Models, Probabilistic,Models, Two-Parameter,Polynomial Model,Polynomial Models,Probabilistic Model,Two Parameter Models,Two-Parameter Model
D016773 Leishmaniasis, Cutaneous An endemic disease that is characterized by the development of single or multiple localized lesions on exposed areas of skin that typically ulcerate. The disease has been divided into Old and New World forms. Old World leishmaniasis is separated into three distinct types according to epidemiology and clinical manifestations and is caused by species of the L. tropica and L. aethiopica complexes as well as by species of the L. major genus. New World leishmaniasis, also called American leishmaniasis, occurs in South and Central America and is caused by species of the L. mexicana or L. braziliensis complexes. Leishmaniasis, American,Leishmaniasis, New World,Leishmaniasis, Old World,Oriental Sore,American Leishmaniasis,Cutaneous Leishmaniases,Cutaneous Leishmaniasis,Leishmaniases, Cutaneous,New World Leishmaniasis,Old World Leishmaniasis,Sore, Oriental
D062206 Spatial Analysis Investigative techniques which measure the topological, geometric, and or geographic properties of the entities studied. Kernel Density Estimation,Kriging,Spacial Analysis,Spatial Autocorrelation,Spatial Dependency,Spatial Interpolation,Analyses, Spacial,Analyses, Spatial,Analysis, Spacial,Analysis, Spatial,Autocorrelation, Spatial,Autocorrelations, Spatial,Density Estimation, Kernel,Density Estimations, Kernel,Dependencies, Spatial,Dependency, Spatial,Estimation, Kernel Density,Estimations, Kernel Density,Interpolation, Spatial,Interpolations, Spatial,Kernel Density Estimations,Krigings,Spacial Analyses,Spatial Analyses,Spatial Autocorrelations,Spatial Dependencies,Spatial Interpolations

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