OBJECTIVE Higher systolic exercise blood pressure (BP) is associated with increased cardiovascular risk in hypertension. We aimed at identifying covariates of systolic exercise BP in overweight subjects. METHODS 77 subjects with body mass index (BMI) > 27 kg/m(2) and without known heart disease were tested. BP was measured by sphygmomanometry before and at all exercise stages during maximal exercise capacity testing on a treadmill. High peak systolic exercise BP was defined as ≥ 200 mmHg. RESULTS The study population was 48 ± 10 years and included 60% women and 42% with known hypertension. Average BMI was 32.6 ± 4.8 kg/m(2) and clinic BP 132/82 ± 17/8 mmHg. High systolic exercise BP was found in 32%. Subjects with high systolic exercise BP had higher systolic clinic and 24-h ambulatory BP (ABP), as well as lower peak oxygen uptake, compared with subjects with normal systolic exercise BP (all p < 0.05). In multiple regression analysis known hypertension (β = 0.33), higher systolic ABP (β = 0.22) and high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol level (β = 0.23, all p < 0.05) predicted higher systolic exercise BP independent of sex and peak oxygen uptake (multiple R(2) = 0.32, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS Among overweight subjects, known hypertension, higher systolic ABP and HDL-cholesterol level were the most important factors predicting higher systolic exercise BP.