Space-time clustering characteristics of tuberculosis in China, 2005-2011. 2013

Fei Zhao, and Shiming Cheng, and Guangxue He, and Fei Huang, and Hui Zhang, and Biao Xu, and Tonderayi C Murimwa, and Jun Cheng, and Dongmei Hu, and Lixia Wang
National Center for Tuberculosis Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.

OBJECTIVE China is one of the 22 tuberculosis (TB) high-burden countries in the world. As TB is a major public health problem in China, spatial analysis could be applied to detect geographic distribution of TB clusters for targeted intervention on TB epidemics. METHODS Spatial analysis was applied for detecting TB clusters on county-based TB notification data in the national notifiable infectious disease case reporting surveillance system from 2005 to 2011. Two indicators of TB epidemic were used including new sputum smear-positive (SS+) notification rate and total TB notification rate. Global Moran's I by ArcGIS was used to assess whether TB clustering and its trend were significant. SaTScan software that used the retrospective space-time analysis and Possion probability model was utilized to identify geographic areas and time period of potential clusters with notification rates on county-level from 2005 to 2011. RESULTS Two indicators of TB notification had presented significant spatial autocorrelation globally each year (p<0.01). Global Moran's I of total TB notification rate had positive trend as time went by (t=6.87, p<0.01). The most likely clusters of two indicators had similar spatial distribution and size in the south-central regions of China from 2006 to 2008, and the secondary clusters in two regions: northeastern China and western China. Besides, the secondary clusters of total TB notification rate had two more large clustering centers in Inner Mongolia, Gansu and Qinghai provinces and several smaller clusters in Shanxi, Henan, Hebei and Jiangsu provinces. CONCLUSIONS The total TB notification cases clustered significantly in some special areas each year and the clusters trended to aggregate with time. The most-likely and secondary clusters that overlapped among two TB indicators had higher TB burden and risks of TB transmission. These were the focused geographic areas where TB control efforts should be prioritized.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D002681 China A country spanning from central Asia to the Pacific Ocean. Inner Mongolia,Manchuria,People's Republic of China,Sinkiang,Mainland China
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D013029 Space-Time Clustering A statistically significant excess of cases of a disease, occurring within a limited space-time continuum. Clustering, Space-Time,Clusterings, Space-Time,Space Time Clustering,Space-Time Clusterings
D014376 Tuberculosis Any of the infectious diseases of man and other animals caused by species of MYCOBACTERIUM TUBERCULOSIS. Koch's Disease,Kochs Disease,Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection,Infection, Mycobacterium tuberculosis,Infections, Mycobacterium tuberculosis,Koch Disease,Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infections,Tuberculoses
D018563 Disease Notification Notification or reporting by a physician or other health care provider of the occurrence of specified contagious diseases such as tuberculosis and HIV infections to designated public health agencies. The United States system of reporting notifiable diseases evolved from the Quarantine Act of 1878, which authorized the US Public Health Service to collect morbidity data on cholera, smallpox, and yellow fever; each state in the US has its own list of notifiable diseases and depends largely on reporting by the individual health care provider. (From Segen, Dictionary of Modern Medicine, 1992) Exposure Notification,Infectious Disease Reporting,Notification, Disease,Disease Notifications,Disease Reporting, Infectious,Disease Reportings, Infectious,Exposure Notifications,Infectious Disease Reportings,Notification, Exposure,Notifications, Disease,Notifications, Exposure,Reporting, Infectious Disease,Reportings, Infectious Disease

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