Water footprint scenarios for 2050: a global analysis. 2014

A Ertug Ercin, and Arjen Y Hoekstra
Twente Water Centre, University of Twente, P.O. Box 217, 7500 AE Enschede, The Netherlands. Electronic address: a.e.ercin@utwente.nl.

This study develops water footprint scenarios for 2050 based on a number of drivers of change: population growth, economic growth, production/trade pattern, consumption pattern (dietary change, bioenergy use) and technological development. The objective the study is to understand the changes in the water footprint (WF) of production and consumption for possible futures by region and to elaborate the main drivers of this change. In addition, we assess virtual water flows between the regions of the world to show dependencies of regions on water resources in other regions under different possible futures. We constructed four scenarios, along two axes, representing two key dimensions of uncertainty: globalization versus regional selfsufficiency, and economy-driven development versus development driven by social and environmental objectives. The study shows how different drivers will change the level of water consumption and pollution globally in 2050. The presented scenarios can form a basis for a further assessment of how humanity can mitigate future freshwater scarcity. We showed with this study that reducing humanity's water footprint to sustainable levels is possible even with increasing populations, provided that consumption patterns change. This study can help to guide corrective policies at both national and international levels, and to set priorities for the years ahead in order to achieve sustainable and equitable use of the world's fresh water resources.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008962 Models, Theoretical Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of systems, processes, or phenomena. They include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Experimental Model,Experimental Models,Mathematical Model,Model, Experimental,Models (Theoretical),Models, Experimental,Models, Theoretic,Theoretical Study,Mathematical Models,Model (Theoretical),Model, Mathematical,Model, Theoretical,Models, Mathematical,Studies, Theoretical,Study, Theoretical,Theoretical Model,Theoretical Models,Theoretical Studies
D011158 Population Growth Increase, over a specific period of time, in the number of individuals living in a country or region. Population Explosion,Baby Boom,Baby Bust,High Fertility Population,Natural Increase,Past Trends,Population Growth and Natural Resources,Population Size and Growth,Zero Population Growth,Baby Booms,Baby Busts,Explosion, Population,Explosions, Population,Growth, Population,High Fertility Populations,Increase, Natural,Increases, Natural,Natural Increases,Past Trend,Population Explosions,Population, High Fertility,Populations, High Fertility,Trend, Past,Trends, Past
D003247 Conservation of Natural Resources The protection, preservation, restoration, and rational use of all resources in the total environment. Carrying Capacity,Deforestation,Desertification,Environmental Protection,Natural Resources Conservation,Protection, Environmental,Capacities, Carrying,Capacity, Carrying,Carrying Capacities,Conservation, Natural Resources
D004787 Environmental Pollution Contamination of the air, bodies of water, or land with substances that are harmful to human health and the environment. Pollution, Environmental,Soil Pollution,Pollution, Soil
D005618 Fresh Water Water containing no significant amounts of salts, such as water from RIVERS and LAKES. Freshwater,Fresh Waters,Freshwaters,Water, Fresh,Waters, Fresh
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D014881 Water Supply Means or process of supplying water (as for a community) usually including reservoirs, tunnels, and pipelines and often the watershed from which the water is ultimately drawn. (Webster, 3d ed) Supplies, Water,Supply, Water,Water Supplies
D038622 Internationality The quality or state of relating to or affecting two or more nations. (After Merriam-Webster Collegiate Dictionary, 10th ed) Globalization,International Aspects,International Perspectives,International Relations,Multinational Aspects,Multinational Perspectives,Aspect, International,Aspect, Multinational,Aspects, International,Aspects, Multinational,International Aspect,International Perspective,Multinational Aspect,Multinational Perspective,Perspective, International,Perspective, Multinational,Perspectives, International,Perspectives, Multinational,Relations, International

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