The risk of disease to great apes: simulating disease spread in orang-utan (Pongo pygmaeus wurmbii) and chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii) association networks. 2014

Charlotte Carne, and Stuart Semple, and Helen Morrogh-Bernard, and Klaus Zuberbühler, and Julia Lehmann
Centre for Research in Evolutionary and Environmental Anthropology, University of Roehampton, London, United Kingdom.

All great ape species are endangered, and infectious diseases are thought to pose a particular threat to their survival. As great ape species vary substantially in social organisation and gregariousness, there are likely to be differences in susceptibility to disease types and spread. Understanding the relation between social variables and disease is therefore crucial for implementing effective conservation measures. Here, we simulate the transmission of a range of diseases in a population of orang-utans in Sabangau Forest (Central Kalimantan) and a community of chimpanzees in Budongo Forest (Uganda), by systematically varying transmission likelihood and probability of subsequent recovery. Both species have fission-fusion social systems, but differ considerably in their level of gregariousness. We used long-term behavioural data to create networks of association patterns on which the spread of different diseases was simulated. We found that chimpanzees were generally far more susceptible to the spread of diseases than orang-utans. When simulating different diseases that varied widely in their probability of transmission and recovery, it was found that the chimpanzee community was widely and strongly affected, while in orang-utans even highly infectious diseases had limited spread. Furthermore, when comparing the observed association network with a mean-field network (equal contact probability between group members), we found no major difference in simulated disease spread, suggesting that patterns of social bonding in orang-utans are not an important determinant of susceptibility to disease. In chimpanzees, the predicted size of the epidemic was smaller on the actual association network than on the mean-field network, indicating that patterns of social bonding have important effects on susceptibility to disease. We conclude that social networks are a potentially powerful tool to model the risk of disease transmission in great apes, and that chimpanzees are particularly threatened by infectious disease outbreaks as a result of their social structure.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007214 Indonesia A republic stretching from the Indian Ocean east to New Guinea, comprising six main islands: Java, Sumatra, Bali, Kalimantan (the Indonesian portion of the island of Borneo), Sulawesi (formerly known as the Celebes) and Irian Jaya (the western part of New Guinea). Its capital is Djakarta. The ethnic groups living there are largely Chinese, Arab, Eurasian, Indian, and Pakistani; 85% of the peoples are of the Islamic faith. Celebes,Indonesian New Guinea,Irian Jaya,Java,Madoera,Netherlands East Indies,New Guinea, Indonesian,New Guinea, West,Sulawesi,Sumatra,Timor,West Irian,Bali,East Indies,Madura,Malay Archipelago
D008954 Models, Biological Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of biological processes or diseases. For disease models in living animals, DISEASE MODELS, ANIMAL is available. Biological models include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Biological Model,Biological Models,Model, Biological,Models, Biologic,Biologic Model,Biologic Models,Model, Biologic
D002679 Pan troglodytes The common chimpanzee, a species of the genus Pan, family HOMINIDAE. It lives in Africa, primarily in the tropical rainforests. There are a number of recognized subspecies. Chimpanzee,Chimpanzee troglodytes,Chimpanzee troglodyte,Chimpanzees,Pan troglodyte,troglodyte, Pan,troglodytes, Chimpanzee
D003141 Communicable Diseases An illness caused by an infectious agent or its toxins that occurs through the direct or indirect transmission of the infectious agent or its products from an infected individual or via an animal, vector or the inanimate environment to a susceptible animal or human host. Infectious Diseases,Communicable Disease,Disease, Communicable,Disease, Infectious,Diseases, Communicable,Diseases, Infectious,Infectious Disease
D003198 Computer Simulation Computer-based representation of physical systems and phenomena such as chemical processes. Computational Modeling,Computational Modelling,Computer Models,In silico Modeling,In silico Models,In silico Simulation,Models, Computer,Computerized Models,Computer Model,Computer Simulations,Computerized Model,In silico Model,Model, Computer,Model, Computerized,Model, In silico,Modeling, Computational,Modeling, In silico,Modelling, Computational,Simulation, Computer,Simulation, In silico,Simulations, Computer
D004198 Disease Susceptibility A constitution or condition of the body which makes the tissues react in special ways to certain extrinsic stimuli and thus tends to make the individual more than usually susceptible to certain diseases. Diathesis,Susceptibility, Disease,Diatheses,Disease Susceptibilities,Susceptibilities, Disease
D000818 Animals Unicellular or multicellular, heterotrophic organisms, that have sensation and the power of voluntary movement. Under the older five kingdom paradigm, Animalia was one of the kingdoms. Under the modern three domain model, Animalia represents one of the many groups in the domain EUKARYOTA. Animal,Metazoa,Animalia
D012307 Risk Factors An aspect of personal behavior or lifestyle, environmental exposure, inborn or inherited characteristic, which, based on epidemiological evidence, is known to be associated with a health-related condition considered important to prevent. Health Correlates,Risk Factor Scores,Risk Scores,Social Risk Factors,Population at Risk,Populations at Risk,Correlates, Health,Factor, Risk,Factor, Social Risk,Factors, Social Risk,Risk Factor,Risk Factor Score,Risk Factor, Social,Risk Factors, Social,Risk Score,Score, Risk,Score, Risk Factor,Social Risk Factor
D012931 Social Environment The aggregate of social and cultural institutions, forms, patterns, and processes that influence the life of an individual or community. Social Context,Environment, Social,Social Ecology,Context, Social,Contexts, Social,Ecologies, Social,Ecology, Social,Environments, Social,Social Contexts,Social Ecologies,Social Environments
D014454 Uganda A republic in eastern Africa, south of SUDAN and west of KENYA. Its capital is Kampala. Republic of Uganda

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