Quantitative assessment of the risk of introduction of bovine viral diarrhea virus in Danish dairy herds. 2014

Alessandro Foddai, and Anette Boklund, and Anders Stockmarr, and Kaspar Krogh, and Claes Enøe
Section for Epidemiology, National Veterinary Institute, Technical University of Denmark, Bülowsvej 27, DK-1870 Frederiksberg C, Denmark. Electronic address: alefo@vet.dtu.dk.

A quantitative risk assessment was carried out to estimate the likelihood of introducing bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) in Danish dairy herds per year and per trimester, respectively. The present study gives important information on the impact of risk mitigation measures and sources of uncertainty due to lack of data. As suggested in the Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS Agreement), the OIE Terrestrial Animal Health Code was followed for a transparent science-based risk assessment. Data from 2010 on imports of live cattle, semen, and embryos, exports of live cattle, as well as use of vaccines were analyzed. Information regarding the application of biosecurity measures, by veterinarians and hoof trimmers practicing in Denmark and in other countries, was obtained by contacting several stakeholders, public institutions and experts. Stochastic scenario trees were made to evaluate the importance of the various BVDV introduction routes. With the current surveillance system, the risk of BVDV introduction was estimated to one or more introductions within a median of nine years (3-59). However, if all imported animals were tested and hoof trimmers always disinfected the tools used abroad, the risk could be reduced to one or more introductions within 33 years (8-200). Results of this study can be used to improve measures of BVD surveillance and prophylaxis in Danish dairy herds.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D001908 Diarrhea Viruses, Bovine Viral A group of viruses in the genus PESTIVIRUS, causing diarrhea, fever, oral ulcerations, hemorrhagic syndrome, and various necrotic lesions among cattle and other domestic animals. The two species (genotypes), BVDV-1 and BVDV-2 , exhibit antigenic and pathological differences. The historical designation, BVDV, consisted of both (then unrecognized) genotypes. Bovine Viral Diarrhea Viruses,Diarrhea Virus, Bovine Viral,Bovine Diarrhea Virus,Bovine Pestivirus,Bovine Diarrhea Viruses,Bovine Pestiviruses,Diarrhea Virus, Bovine,Diarrhea Viruses, Bovine,Pestiviruses, Bovine,Virus, Bovine Diarrhea,Viruses, Bovine Diarrhea
D001912 Bovine Virus Diarrhea-Mucosal Disease Acute disease of cattle caused by the bovine viral diarrhea viruses (DIARRHEA VIRUSES, BOVINE VIRAL). Often mouth ulcerations are the only sign but fever, diarrhea, drop in milk yield, and loss of appetite are also seen. Severity of clinical disease varies and is strain dependent. Outbreaks are characterized by low morbidity and high mortality. Mucosal Disease, Bovine Viral Diarrhea,Bovine Virus Diarrhea Mucosal Disease
D002417 Cattle Domesticated bovine animals of the genus Bos, usually kept on a farm or ranch and used for the production of meat or dairy products or for heavy labor. Beef Cow,Bos grunniens,Bos indicus,Bos indicus Cattle,Bos taurus,Cow,Cow, Domestic,Dairy Cow,Holstein Cow,Indicine Cattle,Taurine Cattle,Taurus Cattle,Yak,Zebu,Beef Cows,Bos indicus Cattles,Cattle, Bos indicus,Cattle, Indicine,Cattle, Taurine,Cattle, Taurus,Cattles, Bos indicus,Cattles, Indicine,Cattles, Taurine,Cattles, Taurus,Cow, Beef,Cow, Dairy,Cow, Holstein,Cows,Dairy Cows,Domestic Cow,Domestic Cows,Indicine Cattles,Taurine Cattles,Taurus Cattles,Yaks,Zebus
D003612 Dairying Production, storage, and distribution of DAIRY PRODUCTS. Dairy Industry,Dairy Industries,Industries, Dairy,Industry, Dairy
D003718 Denmark A country in northern Europe, bordering the Baltic Sea and the North Sea. The capital is Copenhagen. Faeroe Islands,Faroe Islands
D000818 Animals Unicellular or multicellular, heterotrophic organisms, that have sensation and the power of voluntary movement. Under the older five kingdom paradigm, Animalia was one of the kingdoms. Under the modern three domain model, Animalia represents one of the many groups in the domain EUKARYOTA. Animal,Metazoa,Animalia
D062665 Epidemiological Monitoring Collection, analysis, and interpretation of data about the frequency, distribution, and consequences of disease or health conditions, for use in the planning, implementing, and evaluating public health programs. Epidemiologic Monitoring,Epidemiologic Surveillance,Monitoring, Epidemiologic,Epidemiologic Surveillances,Monitoring, Epidemiological,Surveillance, Epidemiologic,Surveillances, Epidemiologic
D018570 Risk Assessment The qualitative or quantitative estimation of the likelihood of adverse effects that may result from exposure to specified health hazards or from the absence of beneficial influences. (Last, Dictionary of Epidemiology, 1988) Assessment, Risk,Benefit-Risk Assessment,Risk Analysis,Risk-Benefit Assessment,Health Risk Assessment,Risks and Benefits,Analysis, Risk,Assessment, Benefit-Risk,Assessment, Health Risk,Assessment, Risk-Benefit,Benefit Risk Assessment,Benefit-Risk Assessments,Benefits and Risks,Health Risk Assessments,Risk Analyses,Risk Assessment, Health,Risk Assessments,Risk Benefit Assessment,Risk-Benefit Assessments

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