Time preference for health in cost-effectiveness analysis. 1989

J Lipscomb
Departments of Public Policy Studies and Community and Family Medicine, Duke University, Durham, NC 27706.

In program evaluation, should a predicted health status gain of 1 quality-adjusted life year (QALY) occurring 10 years from now be valued the same as a 1-QALY increase realizable 5 years from now? Or 1 year from now? If not, how should these future gains (or losses) be evaluated from a present-time perspective? Such questions arise frequently in cost-effectiveness analyses of disease prevention-health promotion programs. This report argues there are actually two distinct interpretations of time preference jointly relevant in many multiperiod program evaluations. 1) In ongoing programs where both present and future population cohorts are, in effect, vying for resources, decision makers must establish a relative social weighting of cohorts by specifying (now) the dollar worth of any unit QALY gain achievable in each. This is a problem of intergenerational equity in the resource allocation process. 2) Individuals, in any cohort, may possess a time preference for the sequence of events comprising their own multiperiod health outcomes. Current models, typically discounting future health gains to present value at some constant rate (r), can well accommodate the first interpretation but not (simultaneously) the second. In response, this report introduces a two-step evaluation procedure featuring the "scenario strategy," a holistic multiattribute preference approach to evaluating multiperiod health outcomes. It allows one to isolate statistically time preference effects at the individual or group level and to incorporate them naturally into the overall evaluation of multiperiod outcomes. A survey-based example and an appendix illustrate the main points.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008962 Models, Theoretical Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of systems, processes, or phenomena. They include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Experimental Model,Experimental Models,Mathematical Model,Model, Experimental,Models (Theoretical),Models, Experimental,Models, Theoretic,Theoretical Study,Mathematical Models,Model (Theoretical),Model, Mathematical,Model, Theoretical,Models, Mathematical,Studies, Theoretical,Study, Theoretical,Theoretical Model,Theoretical Models,Theoretical Studies
D003362 Cost-Benefit Analysis A method of comparing the cost of a program with its expected benefits in dollars (or other currency). The benefit-to-cost ratio is a measure of total return expected per unit of money spent. This analysis generally excludes consideration of factors that are not measured ultimately in economic terms. In contrast a cost effectiveness in general compares cost with qualitative outcomes. Cost and Benefit,Cost-Benefit Data,Benefits and Costs,Cost Benefit,Cost Benefit Analysis,Cost-Utility Analysis,Costs and Benefits,Economic Evaluation,Marginal Analysis,Analyses, Cost Benefit,Analysis, Cost Benefit,Analysis, Cost-Benefit,Analysis, Cost-Utility,Analysis, Marginal,Benefit and Cost,Cost Benefit Analyses,Cost Benefit Data,Cost Utility Analysis,Cost-Benefit Analyses,Cost-Utility Analyses,Data, Cost-Benefit,Economic Evaluations,Evaluation, Economic,Marginal Analyses
D003627 Data Interpretation, Statistical Application of statistical procedures to analyze specific observed or assumed facts from a particular study. Data Analysis, Statistical,Data Interpretations, Statistical,Interpretation, Statistical Data,Statistical Data Analysis,Statistical Data Interpretation,Analyses, Statistical Data,Analysis, Statistical Data,Data Analyses, Statistical,Interpretations, Statistical Data,Statistical Data Analyses,Statistical Data Interpretations
D006262 Health The state of the organism when it functions optimally without evidence of disease. Individual Health,Normalcy,Normality,Health, Individual,Normalcies,Normalities
D006295 Health Resources Available manpower, facilities, revenue, equipment, and supplies to produce requisite health care and services. Resources,Health Resource,Resource,Resource, Health,Resources, Health
D006302 Health Services Research The integration of epidemiologic, sociological, economic, and other analytic sciences in the study of health services. Health services research is usually concerned with relationships between need, demand, supply, use, and outcome of health services. The aim of the research is evaluation, particularly in terms of structure, process, output, and outcome. (From Last, Dictionary of Epidemiology, 2d ed) Health Care Research,Medical Care Research,Research, Health Services,Action Research,Health Services Evaluation,Healthcare Research,Research, Medical Care,Evaluation, Health Services,Evaluations, Health Services,Health Services Evaluations,Research, Action,Research, Health Care,Research, Healthcare
D006304 Health Status The level of health of the individual, group, or population as subjectively assessed by the individual or by more objective measures. General Health,General Health Level,General Health Status,Level of Health,Overall Health,Overall Health Status,General Health Levels,Health Level,Health Level, General,Health Levels,Health Status, General,Health Status, Overall,Health, General,Health, Overall,Level, General Health,Levels, General Health,Status, General Health,Status, Health,Status, Overall Health
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D001294 Attitude to Health Public attitudes toward health, disease, and the medical care system. Health Attitude,Attitude, Health,Attitudes, Health,Health Attitudes,Health, Attitude to
D013995 Time The dimension of the physical universe which, at a given place, orders the sequence of events. (McGraw-Hill Dictionary of Scientific and Technical Terms, 6th ed) Effects, Long-Term,Effects, Longterm,Long-Term Effects,Longterm Effects,Effect, Long-Term,Effect, Longterm,Effects, Long Term,Long Term Effects,Long-Term Effect,Longterm Effect

Related Publications

J Lipscomb
January 1993, Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making,
J Lipscomb
October 2009, Health economics, policy, and law,
J Lipscomb
March 2001, Atencion primaria,
J Lipscomb
June 2012, The European journal of health economics : HEPAC : health economics in prevention and care,
J Lipscomb
January 2006, Journal of health communication,
J Lipscomb
July 1995, Hospital cost management and accounting,
J Lipscomb
January 1989, The Hastings Center report,
J Lipscomb
January 2003, Value in health : the journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research,
Copied contents to your clipboard!