Biomaterial Database

Have winter fuel payments reduced excess winter mortality in England and Wales? 2015

J Iparraguirre

Age UK, Tavis House, 1-6 Tavistock Square, London WC1H 9NA, UK.

BACKGROUND The historical series of excess winter mortality (EWM) in England and Wales presents a negative trend. Winter fuel payments (WFPs) are the most important benefits for people aged 65 or over directly related to Winter Mortality in the UK. METHODS This study presents a time series analysis of the direct effect of WFPs on EWM in England and Wales. RESULTS We find a significant structural break in trend and volatility in the EWM series in England and Wales in 1999-2000. After controlling for a number of covariates, an ARIMA-X model finds that WFPs can account for almost half of the reduction in EWM in England and Wales since 1999/2000. CONCLUSIONS Almost half of the reduction in EWM since 1999/2000 is attributable to WFPs.

UI	MeSH Term	Description	Entries
D008297	Male		Males
D009026	Mortality	All deaths reported in a given population.	CFR Case Fatality Rate,Crude Death Rate,Crude Mortality Rate,Death Rate,Age Specific Death Rate,Age-Specific Death Rate,Case Fatality Rate,Decline, Mortality,Determinants, Mortality,Differential Mortality,Excess Mortality,Mortality Decline,Mortality Determinants,Mortality Rate,Mortality, Differential,Mortality, Excess,Age-Specific Death Rates,Case Fatality Rates,Crude Death Rates,Crude Mortality Rates,Death Rate, Age-Specific,Death Rate, Crude,Death Rates,Determinant, Mortality,Differential Mortalities,Excess Mortalities,Mortalities,Mortality Declines,Mortality Determinant,Mortality Rate, Crude,Mortality Rates,Rate, Age-Specific Death,Rate, Case Fatality,Rate, Crude Death,Rate, Crude Mortality,Rate, Death,Rate, Mortality,Rates, Case Fatality
D002423	Cause of Death	Factors which produce cessation of all vital bodily functions. They can be analyzed from an epidemiologic viewpoint.	Causes of Death,Death Cause,Death Causes
D004739	England	A part of Great Britain within the United Kingdom.
D005260	Female		Females
D005380	Financing, Government	Federal, state, or local government organized methods of financial assistance.	Federal Aid,Financing, Public,Grants and Subsidies, Government,Hill-Burton Act,Subsidies, Government,Government Financing,Act, Hill-Burton,Aid, Federal,Aids, Federal,Federal Aids,Government Subsidies,Government Subsidy,Hill Burton Act,Public Financing,Subsidy, Government
D005544	Forecasting	The prediction or projection of the nature of future problems or existing conditions based upon the extrapolation or interpretation of existing scientific data or by the application of scientific methodology.	Futurology,Projections and Predictions,Future,Predictions and Projections
D005579	Fossil Fuels	Any combustible hydrocarbon deposit formed from the remains of prehistoric organisms. Examples are petroleum, coal, and natural gas.	Fossil Fuel,Fuel, Fossil,Fuels, Fossil
D006361	Heating	The application of heat to raise the temperature of the environment, ambient or local, or the systems for accomplishing this effect. It is distinguished from HEAT, the physical property and principle of physics.
D006801	Humans	Members of the species Homo sapiens.	Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man