Biomaterial Database

Ambrosia pollen in Tulsa, Oklahoma: aerobiology, trends, and forecasting model development. 2014

Lauren Eileen Howard, and Estelle Levetin

Department of Biological Sciences, University of Tulsa, Tulsa, Oklahoma.

BACKGROUND Ambrosia pollen is an important aeroallergen in North America; the ability to predict daily pollen levels may provide an important benefit for sensitive individuals. OBJECTIVE To analyze the long-term Ambrosia pollen counts and develop a forecasting model to predict the next day's pollen concentration. METHODS Airborne pollen has been collected since December 1986 with a Burkard spore trap at the University of Tulsa. Summary statistics and season metrics were calculated for the 27 years of data. Concentration and previous-day meteorologic data from 1987 to 2011 were used to develop a multiple regression model to predict pollen levels for the following day. Model output was compared to 2012 and 2013 ragweed pollen data. RESULTS The Tulsa ragweed season extends from the middle of August to late October. The mean start date is August 22, the mean peak date is September 10, and the mean end date is October 20. The mean cumulative season total is 11,599 pollen/m(3), and the mean daily concentration is 197 pollen/m(3). Previous-day meteorologic and phenologic data were positively related to pollen concentration (P < .001). Precipitation was modeled as a dichotomous variable. The final model included minimum temperature, dichotomous precipitation, dew point, and phenology variable (R = 0.7146, P < .001). Analysis of the model's accuracy revealed that the model was highly representative of the 2012 and 2013 seasons (R = 0.680, P < .001). CONCLUSIONS Multiple regression models may be useful in explaining the variability of Ambrosia pollen levels. Further testing of the modeling parameters in different geographical areas is needed.

UI	MeSH Term	Description	Entries
D009825	Oklahoma	State bounded on the north by Kansas, on the east by Missouri and Arkansas, on the south by Texas, and on the west by New Mexico.
D011058	Pollen	The fertilizing element of plants that contains the male GAMETOPHYTES.	Male Gametes, Plant,Male Gametophytes,Microspores, Plant,Plant Microspores,Pollen Grains,Gamete, Plant Male,Gametes, Plant Male,Gametophyte, Male,Gametophytes, Male,Grain, Pollen,Grains, Pollen,Male Gamete, Plant,Male Gametophyte,Microspore, Plant,Plant Male Gamete,Plant Male Gametes,Plant Microspore,Pollen Grain
D004784	Environmental Monitoring	The monitoring of the level of toxins, chemical pollutants, microbial contaminants, or other harmful substances in the environment (soil, air, and water), workplace, or in the bodies of people and animals present in that environment.	Monitoring, Environmental,Environmental Surveillance,Surveillance, Environmental
D006255	Rhinitis, Allergic, Seasonal	Allergic rhinitis that occurs at the same time every year. It is characterized by acute CONJUNCTIVITIS with lacrimation and ITCHING, and regarded as an allergic condition triggered by specific ALLERGENS.	Hay Fever,Pollen Allergy,Pollinosis,Seasonal Allergic Rhinitis,Hayfever,Allergic Rhinitides, Seasonal,Allergic Rhinitis, Seasonal,Allergies, Pollen,Allergy, Pollen,Fever, Hay,Pollen Allergies,Pollinoses,Rhinitides, Seasonal Allergic,Rhinitis, Seasonal Allergic,Seasonal Allergic Rhinitides
D006801	Humans	Members of the species Homo sapiens.	Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000485	Allergens	Antigen-type substances that produce immediate hypersensitivity (HYPERSENSITIVITY, IMMEDIATE).	Allergen
D012621	Seasons	Divisions of the year according to some regularly recurrent phenomena usually astronomical or climatic. (From McGraw-Hill Dictionary of Scientific and Technical Terms, 6th ed)	Seasonal Variation,Season,Seasonal Variations,Variation, Seasonal,Variations, Seasonal
D015233	Models, Statistical	Statistical formulations or analyses which, when applied to data and found to fit the data, are then used to verify the assumptions and parameters used in the analysis. Examples of statistical models are the linear model, binomial model, polynomial model, two-parameter model, etc.	Probabilistic Models,Statistical Models,Two-Parameter Models,Model, Statistical,Models, Binomial,Models, Polynomial,Statistical Model,Binomial Model,Binomial Models,Model, Binomial,Model, Polynomial,Model, Probabilistic,Model, Two-Parameter,Models, Probabilistic,Models, Two-Parameter,Polynomial Model,Polynomial Models,Probabilistic Model,Two Parameter Models,Two-Parameter Model
D055904	Meteorology	The science of studying the characteristics of the atmosphere such as its temperature, density, winds, clouds, precipitation, and other atmospheric phenomena and aiming to account for the weather in terms of external influences and the basic laws of physics. (From McGraw-Hill Dictionary of Scientific and Technical Terms, 6th ed)	Biometeorology,Climatology
D031164	Ambrosia	A plant genus of the family ASTERACEAE. The POLLEN is one cause of HAYFEVER.	Ambrosia artemisiifolia,Ambrosia paniculata,Ambrosia trifida,Annual Ragweed,Common Ragweed,Giant Ragweed,Ragweed,Short Ragweed,Annual Ragweeds,Common Ragweeds,Giant Ragweeds,Ragweed, Annual,Ragweed, Common,Ragweed, Giant,Ragweed, Short,Ragweeds,Short Ragweeds