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An approach to estimating tuberculosis incidence and case detection rate from routine notification data. 2015

K K Avilov, and A A Romanyukha, and S E Borisov, and E M Belilovsky, and O B Nechaeva, and A S Karkach
<sup>*</sup>Institute for Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, <sup>†</sup>Federal Research Institute for Health Organization and Informatics, Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Moscow.

OBJECTIVE To estimate tuberculosis (TB) incidence and case detection rate (CDR) using routine TB surveillance data only. METHODS A mathematical model of the case detection process, representing competition between disease progression and case finding, is proposed. The model describes disease progression as a two-stage process (bacillary and non-bacillary TB), and so relates the proportion of bacillary TB cases on detection to the effectiveness of detection. Thus, given the annual numbers of newly detected TB cases stratified by bacillary status, the model estimates detection rates, incidence and CDR. Routine notification data from eight provinces in Russia, 2000-2011, were used for the study. RESULTS Subnational level estimates of incidence and CDR were obtained. Incidence estimates varied by two-fold among the provinces; corrected CDR estimates varied by 1.5 times. The trend in the incidence estimates was similar to that in the World Health Organization estimates for the whole of Russia. The change in the trend in WHO CDR estimates in 2008-2009 was not supported by our estimates. CONCLUSIONS The general approach that uses multistage models of disease progression and accordingly stratified notification data can be applied in various settings for the routine estimation of incidence and CDR.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008962 Models, Theoretical Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of systems, processes, or phenomena. They include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Experimental Model,Experimental Models,Mathematical Model,Model, Experimental,Models (Theoretical),Models, Experimental,Models, Theoretic,Theoretical Study,Mathematical Models,Model (Theoretical),Model, Mathematical,Model, Theoretical,Models, Mathematical,Studies, Theoretical,Study, Theoretical,Theoretical Model,Theoretical Models,Theoretical Studies
D009169 Mycobacterium tuberculosis A species of gram-positive, aerobic bacteria that produces TUBERCULOSIS in humans, other primates, CATTLE; DOGS; and some other animals which have contact with humans. Growth tends to be in serpentine, cordlike masses in which the bacilli show a parallel orientation. Mycobacterium tuberculosis H37Rv
D011159 Population Surveillance Ongoing scrutiny of a population (general population, study population, target population, etc.), generally using methods distinguished by their practicability, uniformity, and frequently their rapidity, rather than by complete accuracy. Surveillance, Population
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D012426 Russia A country located in north Asia bordering the Arctic Ocean, extending from Europe (the portion west of the Urals) to the North Pacific Ocean. The capital is Moscow. Russian S.F.S.R.,Russian Federation (Europe),Russian SFSR
D014376 Tuberculosis Any of the infectious diseases of man and other animals caused by species of MYCOBACTERIUM TUBERCULOSIS. Koch's Disease,Kochs Disease,Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection,Infection, Mycobacterium tuberculosis,Infections, Mycobacterium tuberculosis,Koch Disease,Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infections,Tuberculoses
D015994 Incidence The number of new cases of a given disease during a given period in a specified population. It also is used for the rate at which new events occur in a defined population. It is differentiated from PREVALENCE, which refers to all cases in the population at a given time. Attack Rate,Cumulative Incidence,Incidence Proportion,Incidence Rate,Person-time Rate,Secondary Attack Rate,Attack Rate, Secondary,Attack Rates,Cumulative Incidences,Incidence Proportions,Incidence Rates,Incidence, Cumulative,Incidences,Person time Rate,Person-time Rates,Proportion, Incidence,Rate, Attack,Rate, Incidence,Rate, Person-time,Rate, Secondary Attack,Secondary Attack Rates

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