Utility of different cardiovascular disease prediction models in rheumatoid arthritis. 2014

A Purcarea, and S Sovaila, and G Udrea, and E Rezus, and A Gheorghe, and C Tiu, and V Stoica
Strasbourg Medical University, Civil Hospital Strasbourg, Internal Medicine Department, France ; "Carol Davila" University of Medicine and Pharmacy, "Cantacuzino" Hospital, Internal Medicine and Rheumatology Department, Bucharest, Romania.

BACKGROUND Rheumatoid arthritis comes with a 30% higher probability for cardiovascular disease than the general population. Current guidelines advocate for early and aggressive primary prevention and treatment of risk factors in high-risk populations but this excess risk is under-addressed in RA in real life. This is mainly due to difficulties met in the correct risk evaluation. This study aims to underline the differences in results of the main cardiovascular risk screening models in the real life rheumatoid arthritis population. METHODS In a cross-sectional study, patients addressed to a tertiary care center in Romania for an biannual follow-up of rheumatoid arthritis and the ones who were considered free of any cardiovascular disease were assessed for subclinical atherosclerosis. Clinical, biological and carotidal ultrasound evaluations were performed. A number of cardiovascular disease prediction scores were performed and differences between tests were noted in regard to subclinical atherosclerosis as defined by the existence of carotid intima media thickness over 0,9 mm or carotid plaque. RESULTS In a population of 29 Romanian rheumatoid arthritis patients free of cardiovascular disease, the performance of Framingham Risk Score, HeartSCORE, ARIC cardiovascular disease prediction score, Reynolds Risk Score, PROCAM risk score and Qrisk2 score were compared. All the scores under-diagnosed subclinical atherosclerosis. With an AUROC of 0,792, the SCORE model was the only one that could partially stratify patients in low, intermediate and high-risk categories. The use of the EULAR recommended modifier did not help to reclassify patients. CONCLUSIONS The only score that showed a statistically significant prediction capacity for subclinical atherosclerosis in a Romanian rheumatoid arthritis population was SCORE. The additional calibration or the use of imaging techniques in CVD risk prediction for the intermediate risk category might be warranted.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008297 Male Males
D008875 Middle Aged An adult aged 45 - 64 years. Middle Age
D008954 Models, Biological Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of biological processes or diseases. For disease models in living animals, DISEASE MODELS, ANIMAL is available. Biological models include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Biological Model,Biological Models,Model, Biological,Models, Biologic,Biologic Model,Biologic Models,Model, Biologic
D012015 Reference Standards A basis of value established for the measure of quantity, weight, extent or quality, e.g. weight standards, standard solutions, methods, techniques, and procedures used in diagnosis and therapy. Standard Preparations,Standards, Reference,Preparations, Standard,Standardization,Standards,Preparation, Standard,Reference Standard,Standard Preparation,Standard, Reference
D002318 Cardiovascular Diseases Pathological conditions involving the CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEM including the HEART; the BLOOD VESSELS; or the PERICARDIUM. Adverse Cardiac Event,Cardiac Events,Major Adverse Cardiac Events,Adverse Cardiac Events,Cardiac Event,Cardiac Event, Adverse,Cardiac Events, Adverse,Cardiovascular Disease,Disease, Cardiovascular,Event, Cardiac
D005260 Female Females
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D001172 Arthritis, Rheumatoid A chronic systemic disease, primarily of the joints, marked by inflammatory changes in the synovial membranes and articular structures, widespread fibrinoid degeneration of the collagen fibers in mesenchymal tissues, and by atrophy and rarefaction of bony structures. Etiology is unknown, but autoimmune mechanisms have been implicated. Rheumatoid Arthritis
D012307 Risk Factors An aspect of personal behavior or lifestyle, environmental exposure, inborn or inherited characteristic, which, based on epidemiological evidence, is known to be associated with a health-related condition considered important to prevent. Health Correlates,Risk Factor Scores,Risk Scores,Social Risk Factors,Population at Risk,Populations at Risk,Correlates, Health,Factor, Risk,Factor, Social Risk,Factors, Social Risk,Risk Factor,Risk Factor Score,Risk Factor, Social,Risk Factors, Social,Risk Score,Score, Risk,Score, Risk Factor,Social Risk Factor
D012372 ROC Curve A graphic means for assessing the ability of a screening test to discriminate between healthy and diseased persons; may also be used in other studies, e.g., distinguishing stimuli responses as to a faint stimuli or nonstimuli. ROC Analysis,Receiver Operating Characteristic,Analysis, ROC,Analyses, ROC,Characteristic, Receiver Operating,Characteristics, Receiver Operating,Curve, ROC,Curves, ROC,ROC Analyses,ROC Curves,Receiver Operating Characteristics

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