Invention as a combinatorial process: evidence from US patents. 2015

Hyejin Youn, and Deborah Strumsky, and Luis M A Bettencourt, and José Lobo
Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, Oxford OX2 6ED, UK Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX2 6GG, UK CABDyN Complexity Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK Santa Fe Institute, 1399 Hyde Park Road, Santa Fe, NM 87501, USA youn@maths.ox.ac.uk.

Invention has been commonly conceptualized as a search over a space of combinatorial possibilities. Despite the existence of a rich literature, spanning a variety of disciplines, elaborating on the recombinant nature of invention, we lack a formal and quantitative characterization of the combinatorial process underpinning inventive activity. Here, we use US patent records dating from 1790 to 2010 to formally characterize invention as a combinatorial process. To do this, we treat patented inventions as carriers of technologies and avail ourselves of the elaborate system of technology codes used by the United States Patent and Trademark Office to classify the technologies responsible for an invention's novelty. We find that the combinatorial inventive process exhibits an invariant rate of 'exploitation' (refinements of existing combinations of technologies) and 'exploration' (the development of new technological combinations). This combinatorial dynamic contrasts sharply with the creation of new technological capabilities-the building blocks to be combined-that has significantly slowed down. We also find that, notwithstanding the very reduced rate at which new technologies are introduced, the generation of novel technological combinations engenders a practically infinite space of technological configurations.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D009626 Terminology as Topic Works about the terms, expressions, designations, or symbols used in a particular science, discipline, or specialized subject area. Etymology,Nomenclature as Topic,Etymologies
D010330 Patents as Topic Works about exclusive legal rights or privileges applied to inventions, plants, etc. Trademarks,Patents as Topics,Trademark
D003198 Computer Simulation Computer-based representation of physical systems and phenomena such as chemical processes. Computational Modeling,Computational Modelling,Computer Models,In silico Modeling,In silico Models,In silico Simulation,Models, Computer,Computerized Models,Computer Model,Computer Simulations,Computerized Model,In silico Model,Model, Computer,Model, Computerized,Model, In silico,Modeling, Computational,Modeling, In silico,Modelling, Computational,Simulation, Computer,Simulation, In silico,Simulations, Computer
D003627 Data Interpretation, Statistical Application of statistical procedures to analyze specific observed or assumed facts from a particular study. Data Analysis, Statistical,Data Interpretations, Statistical,Interpretation, Statistical Data,Statistical Data Analysis,Statistical Data Interpretation,Analyses, Statistical Data,Analysis, Statistical Data,Data Analyses, Statistical,Interpretations, Statistical Data,Statistical Data Analyses,Statistical Data Interpretations
D013672 Technology The application of scientific knowledge to practical purposes in any field. It includes methods, techniques, and instrumentation. Industrial Arts,Arts, Industrial
D013673 Technology Assessment, Biomedical Evaluation of biomedical technology in relation to cost, efficacy, utilization, etc., and its future impact on social, ethical, and legal systems. Assessment, Biomedical Technology,Assessment, Technology,Biomedical Technology Assessment,Technology Assessment,Technology Assessment, Health,Assessment, Health Technology,Assessments, Biomedical Technology,Assessments, Health Technology,Assessments, Technology,Biomedical Technology Assessments,Health Technology Assessment,Health Technology Assessments,Technology Assessments,Technology Assessments, Biomedical,Technology Assessments, Health
D014481 United States A country in NORTH AMERICA between CANADA and MEXICO.
D015233 Models, Statistical Statistical formulations or analyses which, when applied to data and found to fit the data, are then used to verify the assumptions and parameters used in the analysis. Examples of statistical models are the linear model, binomial model, polynomial model, two-parameter model, etc. Probabilistic Models,Statistical Models,Two-Parameter Models,Model, Statistical,Models, Binomial,Models, Polynomial,Statistical Model,Binomial Model,Binomial Models,Model, Binomial,Model, Polynomial,Model, Probabilistic,Model, Two-Parameter,Models, Probabilistic,Models, Two-Parameter,Polynomial Model,Polynomial Models,Probabilistic Model,Two Parameter Models,Two-Parameter Model

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