Benefits and harms of mammography screening after age 74 years: model estimates of overdiagnosis. 2015

Nicolien T van Ravesteyn, and Natasha K Stout, and Clyde B Schechter, and Eveline A M Heijnsdijk, and Oguzhan Alagoz, and Amy Trentham-Dietz, and Jeanne S Mandelblatt, and Harry J de Koning
Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, the Netherlands (NTvR, EAMH, HJdK); Department of Population Medicine, Harvard Medical School/Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute, Boston, MA (NKS); Departments of Family and Social Medicine and Epidemiology and Population Health, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, NY (CBS); Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering (OA) and Carbone Cancer Center and Department of Population Health Sciences (ATD), University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI; Department of Oncology, Georgetown University Medical Center and Cancer Prevention and Control Program, Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, Washington, DC (JSM). n.vanravesteyn@erasmusmc.nl.

BACKGROUND The aim of this study was to quantify the benefits and harms of mammography screening after age 74 years, focusing on the amount of overdiagnosis of invasive breast cancer and ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). METHODS Three well-established microsimulation models were used to simulate a cohort of American women born in 1960. All women received biennial screening starting at age 50 years with cessation ages varying from 74 up to 96 years. We estimated the number of life-years gained (LYG), quality-adjusted life-years, breast cancer deaths averted, false-positives, and overdiagnosed women per 1000 screens. RESULTS The models predicted that there were 7.8 to 11.4 LYG per 1000 screens at age 74 years (range across models), decreasing to 4.8 to 7.8 LYG per 1000 screens at age 80 years, and 1.4 to 2.4 LYG per 1000 screens at age 90 years. When adjusted for quality-of-life decrements, the LYG decreased by 5% to 13% at age 74 years and 11% to 22% at age 80 years. At age 90 to 92 years, all LYG were counterbalanced by a loss in quality-of-life, mainly because of the increasing number of overdiagnosed breast cancers per 1000 screens: 1.2 to 5.0 at age 74 years, 1.8 to 6.0 at age 80 years, and 3.7 to 7.5 at age 90 years. The age at which harms began to outweigh benefits shifted to a younger age when larger or longer utility losses because of a breast cancer diagnosis were assumed. CONCLUSIONS The balance between screening benefits and harms becomes less favorable after age 74 years. At age 90 years, harms outweigh benefits, largely as a consequence of overdiagnosis. This age was the same across the three models, despite important model differences in assumptions on DCIS.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008327 Mammography Radiographic examination of the breast. 3D-Mammography,Digital Breast Tomosynthesis,Digital Mammography,X-ray Breast Tomosynthesis,3D Mammography,3D-Mammographies,Breast Tomosyntheses, Digital,Breast Tomosyntheses, X-ray,Breast Tomosynthesis, Digital,Breast Tomosynthesis, X-ray,Digital Breast Tomosyntheses,Digital Mammographies,Mammographies,Mammographies, Digital,Mammography, Digital,X ray Breast Tomosynthesis,X-ray Breast Tomosyntheses
D008403 Mass Screening Organized periodic procedures performed on large groups of people for the purpose of detecting disease. Screening,Mass Screenings,Screening, Mass,Screenings,Screenings, Mass
D008875 Middle Aged An adult aged 45 - 64 years. Middle Age
D001943 Breast Neoplasms Tumors or cancer of the human BREAST. Breast Cancer,Breast Tumors,Cancer of Breast,Breast Carcinoma,Cancer of the Breast,Human Mammary Carcinoma,Malignant Neoplasm of Breast,Malignant Tumor of Breast,Mammary Cancer,Mammary Carcinoma, Human,Mammary Neoplasm, Human,Mammary Neoplasms, Human,Neoplasms, Breast,Tumors, Breast,Breast Carcinomas,Breast Malignant Neoplasm,Breast Malignant Neoplasms,Breast Malignant Tumor,Breast Malignant Tumors,Breast Neoplasm,Breast Tumor,Cancer, Breast,Cancer, Mammary,Cancers, Mammary,Carcinoma, Breast,Carcinoma, Human Mammary,Carcinomas, Breast,Carcinomas, Human Mammary,Human Mammary Carcinomas,Human Mammary Neoplasm,Human Mammary Neoplasms,Mammary Cancers,Mammary Carcinomas, Human,Neoplasm, Breast,Neoplasm, Human Mammary,Neoplasms, Human Mammary,Tumor, Breast
D002285 Carcinoma, Intraductal, Noninfiltrating A noninvasive (noninfiltrating) carcinoma of the breast characterized by a proliferation of malignant epithelial cells confined to the mammary ducts or lobules, without light-microscopy evidence of invasion through the basement membrane into the surrounding stroma. Carcinoma, Intraductal,DCIS,Ductal Carcinoma In Situ,Atypical Ductal Hyperplasia,Intraductal Carcinoma, Noninfiltrating,Atypical Ductal Hyperplasias,Carcinoma, Noninfiltrating Intraductal,Carcinomas, Intraductal,Carcinomas, Noninfiltrating Intraductal,Ductal Hyperplasia, Atypical,Ductal Hyperplasias, Atypical,Hyperplasia, Atypical Ductal,Hyperplasias, Atypical Ductal,Intraductal Carcinoma,Intraductal Carcinomas,Intraductal Carcinomas, Noninfiltrating,Noninfiltrating Intraductal Carcinoma,Noninfiltrating Intraductal Carcinomas
D005189 False Positive Reactions Positive test results in subjects who do not possess the attribute for which the test is conducted. The labeling of healthy persons as diseased when screening in the detection of disease. (Last, A Dictionary of Epidemiology, 2d ed) False Positive Reaction,Positive Reaction, False,Positive Reactions, False,Reaction, False Positive,Reactions, False Positive
D005260 Female Females
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000368 Aged A person 65 years of age or older. For a person older than 79 years, AGED, 80 AND OVER is available. Elderly
D000375 Aging The gradual irreversible changes in structure and function of an organism that occur as a result of the passage of time. Senescence,Aging, Biological,Biological Aging

Related Publications

Nicolien T van Ravesteyn, and Natasha K Stout, and Clyde B Schechter, and Eveline A M Heijnsdijk, and Oguzhan Alagoz, and Amy Trentham-Dietz, and Jeanne S Mandelblatt, and Harry J de Koning
June 2012, The Medical journal of Australia,
Nicolien T van Ravesteyn, and Natasha K Stout, and Clyde B Schechter, and Eveline A M Heijnsdijk, and Oguzhan Alagoz, and Amy Trentham-Dietz, and Jeanne S Mandelblatt, and Harry J de Koning
January 2012, BMJ (Clinical research ed.),
Nicolien T van Ravesteyn, and Natasha K Stout, and Clyde B Schechter, and Eveline A M Heijnsdijk, and Oguzhan Alagoz, and Amy Trentham-Dietz, and Jeanne S Mandelblatt, and Harry J de Koning
May 2015, Breast cancer research : BCR,
Nicolien T van Ravesteyn, and Natasha K Stout, and Clyde B Schechter, and Eveline A M Heijnsdijk, and Oguzhan Alagoz, and Amy Trentham-Dietz, and Jeanne S Mandelblatt, and Harry J de Koning
January 2012, The Medical journal of Australia,
Nicolien T van Ravesteyn, and Natasha K Stout, and Clyde B Schechter, and Eveline A M Heijnsdijk, and Oguzhan Alagoz, and Amy Trentham-Dietz, and Jeanne S Mandelblatt, and Harry J de Koning
January 2012, The Medical journal of Australia,
Nicolien T van Ravesteyn, and Natasha K Stout, and Clyde B Schechter, and Eveline A M Heijnsdijk, and Oguzhan Alagoz, and Amy Trentham-Dietz, and Jeanne S Mandelblatt, and Harry J de Koning
December 2007, Annals of internal medicine,
Nicolien T van Ravesteyn, and Natasha K Stout, and Clyde B Schechter, and Eveline A M Heijnsdijk, and Oguzhan Alagoz, and Amy Trentham-Dietz, and Jeanne S Mandelblatt, and Harry J de Koning
October 2012, Annals of internal medicine,
Nicolien T van Ravesteyn, and Natasha K Stout, and Clyde B Schechter, and Eveline A M Heijnsdijk, and Oguzhan Alagoz, and Amy Trentham-Dietz, and Jeanne S Mandelblatt, and Harry J de Koning
April 2013, Danish medical journal,
Nicolien T van Ravesteyn, and Natasha K Stout, and Clyde B Schechter, and Eveline A M Heijnsdijk, and Oguzhan Alagoz, and Amy Trentham-Dietz, and Jeanne S Mandelblatt, and Harry J de Koning
January 2011, Epidemiologic reviews,
Nicolien T van Ravesteyn, and Natasha K Stout, and Clyde B Schechter, and Eveline A M Heijnsdijk, and Oguzhan Alagoz, and Amy Trentham-Dietz, and Jeanne S Mandelblatt, and Harry J de Koning
February 2012, Tidsskrift for den Norske laegeforening : tidsskrift for praktisk medicin, ny raekke,
Copied contents to your clipboard!