Predicting Preterm Birth Among Women Screened by North Carolina's Pregnancy Medical Home Program. 2015

Christine M Tucker, and Kate Berrien, and M Kathryn Menard, and Amy H Herring, and Julie Daniels, and Diane L Rowley, and Carolyn Tucker Halpern
Department of Maternal and Child Health, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Campus Box #8120, Chapel Hill, NC, 27599-8120, USA. cmtucker@live.unc.edu.

OBJECTIVE To determine which combination of risk factors from Community Care of North Carolina's (CCNC) Pregnancy Medical Home (PMH) risk screening form was most predictive of preterm birth (PTB) by parity and race/ethnicity. METHODS This retrospective cohort included pregnant Medicaid patients screened by the PMH program before 24 weeks gestation who delivered a live birth in North Carolina between September 2011-September 2012 (N = 15,428). Data came from CCNC's Case Management Information System, Medicaid claims, and birth certificates. Logistic regression with backward stepwise elimination was used to arrive at the final models. To internally validate the predictive model, we used bootstrapping techniques. RESULTS The prevalence of PTB was 11 %. Multifetal gestation, a previous PTB, cervical insufficiency, diabetes, renal disease, and hypertension were the strongest risk factors with odds ratios ranging from 2.34 to 10.78. Non-Hispanic black race, underweight, smoking during pregnancy, asthma, other chronic conditions, nulliparity, and a history of a low birth weight infant or fetal death/second trimester loss were additional predictors in the final predictive model. About half of the risk factors prioritized by the PMH program remained in our final model (ROC = 0.66). The odds of PTB associated with food insecurity and obesity differed by parity. The influence of unsafe or unstable housing and short interpregnancy interval on PTB differed by race/ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS Evaluation of the PMH risk screen provides insight to ensure women at highest risk are prioritized for care management. Using multiple data sources, salient risk factors for PTB were identified, allowing for better-targeted approaches for PTB prevention.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007231 Infant, Newborn An infant during the first 28 days after birth. Neonate,Newborns,Infants, Newborn,Neonates,Newborn,Newborn Infant,Newborn Infants
D008403 Mass Screening Organized periodic procedures performed on large groups of people for the purpose of detecting disease. Screening,Mass Screenings,Screening, Mass,Screenings,Screenings, Mass
D008484 Medicaid Federal program, created by Public Law 89-97, Title XIX, a 1965 amendment to the Social Security Act, administered by the states, that provides health care benefits to indigent and medically indigent persons. Dental Medicaid Program,Medical Assistance, Title 19,Dental Medicaid Programs,Medicaid Program, Dental,Medicaid Programs, Dental,Program, Dental Medicaid,Programs, Dental Medicaid
D009657 North Carolina State bounded on the north by Virginia, on the east and Southeast by the Atlantic Ocean, on the south by Georgia and South Carolina, and on the west by Tennessee.
D010298 Parity The number of offspring a female has borne. It is contrasted with GRAVIDITY, which refers to the number of pregnancies, regardless of outcome. Multiparity,Nulliparity,Primiparity,Parity Progression Ratio,Parity Progression Ratios,Ratio, Parity Progression,Ratios, Parity Progression
D011237 Predictive Value of Tests In screening and diagnostic tests, the probability that a person with a positive test is a true positive (i.e., has the disease), is referred to as the predictive value of a positive test; whereas, the predictive value of a negative test is the probability that the person with a negative test does not have the disease. Predictive value is related to the sensitivity and specificity of the test. Negative Predictive Value,Positive Predictive Value,Predictive Value Of Test,Predictive Values Of Tests,Negative Predictive Values,Positive Predictive Values,Predictive Value, Negative,Predictive Value, Positive
D011247 Pregnancy The status during which female mammals carry their developing young (EMBRYOS or FETUSES) in utero before birth, beginning from FERTILIZATION to BIRTH. Gestation,Pregnancies
D001719 Birth Certificates Official certifications by a physician recording the individual's birth date, place of birth, parentage and other required identifying data which are filed with the local registrar of vital statistics. Birth Records,Birth Certificate,Birth Record,Certificate, Birth,Certificates, Birth,Record, Birth,Records, Birth
D005006 Ethnicity A group of people with a common cultural heritage that sets them apart from others in a variety of social relationships. Ethnic Groups,Nationality,Ethnic Group,Nationalities
D005260 Female Females

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