Mapping influenza transmission in the ferret model to transmission in humans. 2015

Michael G Buhnerkempe, and Katelyn Gostic, and Miran Park, and Prianna Ahsan, and Jessica A Belser, and James O Lloyd-Smith
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, United States.

The controversy surrounding 'gain-of-function' experiments on high-consequence avian influenza viruses has highlighted the role of ferret transmission experiments in studying the transmission potential of novel influenza strains. However, the mapping between influenza transmission in ferrets and in humans is unsubstantiated. We address this gap by compiling and analyzing 240 estimates of influenza transmission in ferrets and humans. We demonstrate that estimates of ferret secondary attack rate (SAR) explain 66% of the variation in human SAR estimates at the subtype level. Further analysis shows that ferret transmission experiments have potential to identify influenza viruses of concern for epidemic spread in humans, though small sample sizes and biological uncertainties prevent definitive classification of human transmissibility. Thus, ferret transmission experiments provide valid predictions of pandemic potential of novel influenza strains, though results should continue to be corroborated by targeted virological and epidemiological research.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007251 Influenza, Human An acute viral infection in humans involving the respiratory tract. It is marked by inflammation of the NASAL MUCOSA; the PHARYNX; and conjunctiva, and by headache and severe, often generalized, myalgia. Grippe,Human Flu,Human Influenza,Influenza in Humans,Influenza,Flu, Human,Human Influenzas,Influenza in Human,Influenzas,Influenzas, Human
D008962 Models, Theoretical Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of systems, processes, or phenomena. They include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Experimental Model,Experimental Models,Mathematical Model,Model, Experimental,Models (Theoretical),Models, Experimental,Models, Theoretic,Theoretical Study,Mathematical Models,Model (Theoretical),Model, Mathematical,Model, Theoretical,Models, Mathematical,Studies, Theoretical,Study, Theoretical,Theoretical Model,Theoretical Models,Theoretical Studies
D009976 Orthomyxoviridae Infections Virus diseases caused by the ORTHOMYXOVIRIDAE. Orthomyxovirus Infections,Infections, Orthomyxoviridae,Infections, Orthomyxovirus,Swine Influenza,Infection, Orthomyxoviridae,Infection, Orthomyxovirus,Influenza, Swine,Orthomyxoviridae Infection,Orthomyxovirus Infection
D004195 Disease Models, Animal Naturally-occurring or experimentally-induced animal diseases with pathological processes analogous to human diseases. Animal Disease Model,Animal Disease Models,Disease Model, Animal
D005289 Ferrets Semidomesticated variety of European polecat much used for hunting RODENTS and/or RABBITS and as a laboratory animal. It is in the subfamily Mustelinae, family MUSTELIDAE. Domestic Polecat,Domestic Polecats,European Polecat,European Polecats,Ferret,Mustela putorius,Mustela putorius furo,Polecat, Domestic,Polecat, European,Polecats, Domestic,Polecats, European
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000818 Animals Unicellular or multicellular, heterotrophic organisms, that have sensation and the power of voluntary movement. Under the older five kingdom paradigm, Animalia was one of the kingdoms. Under the modern three domain model, Animalia represents one of the many groups in the domain EUKARYOTA. Animal,Metazoa,Animalia

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