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Estimating average attributable fractions with confidence intervals for cohort and case-control studies. 2018

John Ferguson, and Alberto Alvarez-Iglesias, and John Newell, and John Hinde, and Martin O'Donnell
1 HRB Clinical Research Facility, National University of Ireland Galway, Ireland.

Chronic diseases tend to depend on a large number of risk factors, both environmental and genetic. Average attributable fractions were introduced by Eide and Gefeller as a way of partitioning overall disease burden into contributions from individual risk factors; this may be useful in deciding which risk factors to target in disease interventions. Here, we introduce new estimation methods for average attributable fractions that are appropriate for both case-control designs and prospective studies. Confidence intervals, derived using Monte Carlo simulation, are also described. Finally, we introduce a novel approximation for the sample average attributable fraction that will ensure a computationally tractable approach when the number of risk factors is large. An R package, [Formula: see text], implementing the methods described in this manuscript can be downloaded from the CRAN repository.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D009010 Monte Carlo Method In statistics, a technique for numerically approximating the solution of a mathematical problem by studying the distribution of some random variable, often generated by a computer. The name alludes to the randomness characteristic of the games of chance played at the gambling casinos in Monte Carlo. (From Random House Unabridged Dictionary, 2d ed, 1993) Method, Monte Carlo
D011446 Prospective Studies Observation of a population for a sufficient number of persons over a sufficient number of years to generate incidence or mortality rates subsequent to the selection of the study group. Prospective Study,Studies, Prospective,Study, Prospective
D002908 Chronic Disease Diseases which have one or more of the following characteristics: they are permanent, leave residual disability, are caused by nonreversible pathological alteration, require special training of the patient for rehabilitation, or may be expected to require a long period of supervision, observation, or care (Dictionary of Health Services Management, 2d ed). For epidemiological studies chronic disease often includes HEART DISEASES; STROKE; CANCER; and diabetes (DIABETES MELLITUS, TYPE 2). Chronic Condition,Chronic Illness,Chronically Ill,Chronic Conditions,Chronic Diseases,Chronic Illnesses,Condition, Chronic,Disease, Chronic,Illness, Chronic
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D012307 Risk Factors An aspect of personal behavior or lifestyle, environmental exposure, inborn or inherited characteristic, which, based on epidemiological evidence, is known to be associated with a health-related condition considered important to prevent. Health Correlates,Risk Factor Scores,Risk Scores,Social Risk Factors,Population at Risk,Populations at Risk,Correlates, Health,Factor, Risk,Factor, Social Risk,Factors, Social Risk,Risk Factor,Risk Factor Score,Risk Factor, Social,Risk Factors, Social,Risk Score,Score, Risk,Score, Risk Factor,Social Risk Factor
D016001 Confidence Intervals A range of values for a variable of interest, e.g., a rate, constructed so that this range has a specified probability of including the true value of the variable. Confidence Interval,Interval, Confidence,Intervals, Confidence
D016022 Case-Control Studies Comparisons that start with the identification of persons with the disease or outcome of interest and a control (comparison, referent) group without the disease or outcome of interest. The relationship of an attribute is examined by comparing both groups with regard to the frequency or levels of outcome over time. Case-Base Studies,Case-Comparison Studies,Case-Referent Studies,Matched Case-Control Studies,Nested Case-Control Studies,Case Control Studies,Case-Compeer Studies,Case-Referrent Studies,Case Base Studies,Case Comparison Studies,Case Control Study,Case Referent Studies,Case Referrent Studies,Case-Comparison Study,Case-Control Studies, Matched,Case-Control Studies, Nested,Case-Control Study,Case-Control Study, Matched,Case-Control Study, Nested,Case-Referent Study,Case-Referrent Study,Matched Case Control Studies,Matched Case-Control Study,Nested Case Control Studies,Nested Case-Control Study,Studies, Case Control,Studies, Case-Base,Studies, Case-Comparison,Studies, Case-Compeer,Studies, Case-Control,Studies, Case-Referent,Studies, Case-Referrent,Studies, Matched Case-Control,Studies, Nested Case-Control,Study, Case Control,Study, Case-Comparison,Study, Case-Control,Study, Case-Referent,Study, Case-Referrent,Study, Matched Case-Control,Study, Nested Case-Control
D018570 Risk Assessment The qualitative or quantitative estimation of the likelihood of adverse effects that may result from exposure to specified health hazards or from the absence of beneficial influences. (Last, Dictionary of Epidemiology, 1988) Assessment, Risk,Benefit-Risk Assessment,Risk Analysis,Risk-Benefit Assessment,Health Risk Assessment,Risks and Benefits,Analysis, Risk,Assessment, Benefit-Risk,Assessment, Health Risk,Assessment, Risk-Benefit,Benefit Risk Assessment,Benefit-Risk Assessments,Benefits and Risks,Health Risk Assessments,Risk Analyses,Risk Assessment, Health,Risk Assessments,Risk Benefit Assessment,Risk-Benefit Assessments
D035843 Biomedical Research Research that involves the application of the natural sciences, especially biology and physiology, to medicine. Medical Research,Experimental Medicine,Investigational Medicine,Investigative Medicine,Research, Biomedical,Research, Medical,Medicine, Experimental,Medicine, Investigational,Medicine, Investigative

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