Set-membership estimations for the evolution of infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations. 2017

Tsvetomir Tsachev, and Vladimir M Veliov, and Andreas Widder
Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Acad. G. Bonchev Str., Block 8, 1113, Sofia, Bulgaria.

The paper presents an approach for set-membership estimation of the state of a heterogeneous population in which an infectious disease is spreading. The population state may consist of susceptible, infected, recovered, etc. groups, where the individuals are heterogeneous with respect to traits, relevant to the particular disease. Set-membership estimations in this context are reasonable, since only vague information about the distribution of the population along the space of heterogeneity is available in practice. The presented approach comprises adapted versions of methods which are known in estimation and control theory, and involve solving parametrized families of optimization problems. Since the models of disease spreading in heterogeneous populations involve distributed systems (with non-local dynamics and endogenous boundary conditions), these problems are non-standard. The paper develops the needed theoretical instruments and a solution scheme. SI and SIR models of epidemic diseases are considered as case studies and the results reveal qualitative properties that may be of interest.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008954 Models, Biological Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of biological processes or diseases. For disease models in living animals, DISEASE MODELS, ANIMAL is available. Biological models include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Biological Model,Biological Models,Model, Biological,Models, Biologic,Biologic Model,Biologic Models,Model, Biologic
D003141 Communicable Diseases An illness caused by an infectious agent or its toxins that occurs through the direct or indirect transmission of the infectious agent or its products from an infected individual or via an animal, vector or the inanimate environment to a susceptible animal or human host. Infectious Diseases,Communicable Disease,Disease, Communicable,Disease, Infectious,Diseases, Communicable,Diseases, Infectious,Infectious Disease
D003710 Demography Statistical interpretation and description of a population with reference to distribution, composition, or structure. Demographer,Demographic,Demographic and Health Survey,Population Distribution,Accounting, Demographic,Analyses, Demographic,Analyses, Multiregional,Analysis, Period,Brass Technic,Brass Technique,Demographers,Demographic Accounting,Demographic Analysis,Demographic Factor,Demographic Factors,Demographic Impact,Demographic Impacts,Demographic Survey,Demographic Surveys,Demographic and Health Surveys,Demographics,Demography, Historical,Demography, Prehistoric,Factor, Demographic,Factors, Demographic,Family Reconstitution,Historical Demography,Impact, Demographic,Impacts, Demographic,Multiregional Analysis,Period Analysis,Population Spatial Distribution,Prehistoric Demography,Reverse Survival Method,Stable Population Method,Survey, Demographic,Surveys, Demographic,Analyses, Period,Analysis, Demographic,Analysis, Multiregional,Demographic Analyses,Demographies, Historical,Demographies, Prehistoric,Distribution, Population,Distribution, Population Spatial,Distributions, Population,Distributions, Population Spatial,Family Reconstitutions,Historical Demographies,Method, Reverse Survival,Method, Stable Population,Methods, Reverse Survival,Methods, Stable Population,Multiregional Analyses,Period Analyses,Population Distributions,Population Methods, Stable,Population Spatial Distributions,Prehistoric Demographies,Reconstitution, Family,Reconstitutions, Family,Reverse Survival Methods,Spatial Distribution, Population,Spatial Distributions, Population,Stable Population Methods,Technic, Brass,Technique, Brass
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man

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