BACKGROUND Fine-needle aspiration biopsy (FNAB) cannot distinguish a follicular thyroid carcinoma (FTC) from a follicular adenoma in follicular lesions. We designed this study to determine whether the preoperative thyroglobulin (Tg) and change in serum Tg during thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) suppression can predict FTC in thyroid nodules with a cytological diagnosis of follicular lesion. METHODS Among 854 patients who underwent thyroid surgery, the 198 patients who presented with thyroid nodules with a cytological diagnosis of follicular lesion were analyzed. Predictive factors for malignancy were evaluated using multivariate logistic regression models. Subgroup analyses of patients with TSH suppression therapy by levothyroxine were also conducted. RESULTS Thirty-two patients (16%) had FTC, and 166 patients had confirmed benign nodules. The median preoperative serum Tg levels were significantly higher in patients with FTC compared to those with benign pathology (449 vs. 34 ng/mL, p < 0.001). The serum Tg (odds ratios (OR) 10.311, p < 0.001) and tumor volume (OR 4.500, p = 0.035) were found to be independent predictors for FTC in all patients with a cytological diagnosis of follicular lesion. Forty-eight patients received TSH suppression therapy. When we performed subgroup analyses on the patients with TSH suppression therapy, decrease less than 15% in serum Tg during TSH suppression was found to be an independent predictor of FTC (OR 13.918, p = 0.018). CONCLUSIONS Preoperative serum Tg and changes in serum Tg during TSH suppression independently predict FTC in thyroid nodules with a cytological diagnosis of follicular lesion.