Adverse events following immunization: assessing probability of causation. 1989

G M Fenichel, and D A Lane, and J R Livengood, and S J Horwitz, and J H Menkes, and J F Schwartz
Department of Neurology, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN 37232.

The Monitoring System for Adverse Events Following Immunization of the Centers for Disease Control collects data on events temporally related to immunization. Occasionally, reports are received of neurologic disturbances temporally related to receipt of vaccine. Most of these disturbances are events that regularly occur in the absence of immunization. It is then difficult to determine whether the relationship between the immunization and illness is causal or coincidental. We developed a method to assess causation of serious neurologic events by probability theory. By combining epidemiologic information on disease incidence with specific elements of the patient history, an estimate of the odds of vaccine causation can be derived, based on rational assumptions rather than observer bias. The result is not a diagnosis but an estimate of probability.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007114 Immunization Deliberate stimulation of the host's immune response. ACTIVE IMMUNIZATION involves administration of ANTIGENS or IMMUNOLOGIC ADJUVANTS. PASSIVE IMMUNIZATION involves administration of IMMUNE SERA or LYMPHOCYTES or their extracts (e.g., transfer factor, immune RNA) or transplantation of immunocompetent cell producing tissue (thymus or bone marrow). Immunologic Stimulation,Immunostimulation,Sensitization, Immunologic,Variolation,Immunologic Sensitization,Immunological Stimulation,Sensitization, Immunological,Stimulation, Immunologic,Immunizations,Immunological Sensitization,Immunological Sensitizations,Immunological Stimulations,Sensitizations, Immunological,Stimulation, Immunological,Stimulations, Immunological,Variolations
D007223 Infant A child between 1 and 23 months of age. Infants
D008297 Male Males
D008962 Models, Theoretical Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of systems, processes, or phenomena. They include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Experimental Model,Experimental Models,Mathematical Model,Model, Experimental,Models (Theoretical),Models, Experimental,Models, Theoretic,Theoretical Study,Mathematical Models,Model (Theoretical),Model, Mathematical,Model, Theoretical,Models, Mathematical,Studies, Theoretical,Study, Theoretical,Theoretical Model,Theoretical Models,Theoretical Studies
D011336 Probability The study of chance processes or the relative frequency characterizing a chance process. Probabilities
D001927 Brain Diseases Pathologic conditions affecting the BRAIN, which is composed of the intracranial components of the CENTRAL NERVOUS SYSTEM. This includes (but is not limited to) the CEREBRAL CORTEX; intracranial white matter; BASAL GANGLIA; THALAMUS; HYPOTHALAMUS; BRAIN STEM; and CEREBELLUM. Intracranial Central Nervous System Disorders,Brain Disorders,CNS Disorders, Intracranial,Central Nervous System Disorders, Intracranial,Central Nervous System Intracranial Disorders,Encephalon Diseases,Encephalopathy,Intracranial CNS Disorders,Brain Disease,Brain Disorder,CNS Disorder, Intracranial,Encephalon Disease,Encephalopathies,Intracranial CNS Disorder
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D015984 Causality The relating of causes to the effects they produce. Causes are termed necessary when they must always precede an effect and sufficient when they initiate or produce an effect. Any of several factors may be associated with the potential disease causation or outcome, including predisposing factors, enabling factors, precipitating factors, reinforcing factors, and risk factors. Causation,Enabling Factors,Multifactorial Causality,Multiple Causation,Predisposing Factors,Reinforcing Factors,Causalities,Causalities, Multifactorial,Causality, Multifactorial,Causation, Multiple,Causations,Causations, Multiple,Enabling Factor,Factor, Enabling,Factor, Predisposing,Factor, Reinforcing,Factors, Enabling,Factors, Predisposing,Factors, Reinforcing,Multifactorial Causalities,Multiple Causations,Predisposing Factor,Reinforcing Factor

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