Intraseason waning of influenza vaccine protection: Evidence from the US Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network, 2011-12 through 2014-15. 2017

Jill M Ferdinands, and Alicia M Fry, and Sue Reynolds, and Joshua Petrie, and Brendan Flannery, and Michael L Jackson, and Edward A Belongia
Influenza Division, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Atlanta, GA, USA.

Recent studies suggest that influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) may wane over the course of an influenza season, leading to suboptimal VE during late influenza seasons. We examined the association between influenza VE and time since vaccination among patients ≥9 years old with medically-attended acute respiratory illness in the US Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network using data pooled from the 2011-12 through 2014-15 influenza seasons. We used multivariate logistic regression with PCR-confirmed influenza infection as the outcome and vaccination status defined by days between vaccination and symptom onset as the predictor. Models were adjusted for calendar time and other potential confounding factors. We observed decreasing VE with increasing time since vaccination for influenza A(H3N2) (p=0.004), influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 (p=0.01), and influenza B viruses (p=0.04). Maximum VE was observed shortly after vaccination, followed by a decline in VE of about 7% (absolute) per month for influenza A(H3N2) and influenza B and 6% - 11% per month for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses. VE remained greater than zero for at least six months for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and influenza B and at least five months for influenza A(H3N2) viruses. Decline in VE was more pronounced among patients with prior season influenza vaccination. A similar pattern of increasing influenza risk with increasing time since vaccination was seen in analyses limited to vaccinees. We observed decreasing influenza vaccine protection with increasing time since vaccination across influenza types/subtypes. This association is consistent with intraseason waning of host immunity, but bias or residual confounding could explain these findings.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007251 Influenza, Human An acute viral infection in humans involving the respiratory tract. It is marked by inflammation of the NASAL MUCOSA; the PHARYNX; and conjunctiva, and by headache and severe, often generalized, myalgia. Grippe,Human Flu,Human Influenza,Influenza in Humans,Influenza,Flu, Human,Human Influenzas,Influenza in Human,Influenzas,Influenzas, Human
D007252 Influenza Vaccines Vaccines used to prevent infection by viruses in the family ORTHOMYXOVIRIDAE. It includes both killed and attenuated vaccines. The composition of the vaccines is changed each year in response to antigenic shifts and changes in prevalence of influenza virus strains. The flu vaccines may be mono- or multi-valent, which contains one or more ALPHAINFLUENZAVIRUS and BETAINFLUENZAVIRUS strains. Flu Vaccine,Influenzavirus Vaccine,Monovalent Influenza Vaccine,Universal Flu Vaccine,Universal Influenza Vaccine,Flu Vaccines,High-Dose Trivalent Influenza Vaccine,Influenza Vaccine,Influenza Virus Vaccine,Influenza Virus Vaccines,Influenzavirus Vaccines,Intranasal Live-Attenuated Influenza Vaccine,LAIV Vaccine,Monovalent Influenza Vaccines,Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccine,Trivalent Influenza Vaccine,Trivalent Live Attenuated Influenza Vaccine,Universal Flu Vaccines,Universal Influenza Vaccines,Flu Vaccine, Universal,High Dose Trivalent Influenza Vaccine,Influenza Vaccine, Monovalent,Influenza Vaccine, Quadrivalent,Influenza Vaccine, Trivalent,Influenza Vaccine, Universal,Intranasal Live Attenuated Influenza Vaccine,Vaccine, Flu,Vaccine, Influenza,Vaccine, Influenza Virus,Vaccine, Influenzavirus,Vaccine, LAIV,Vaccine, Monovalent Influenza,Vaccine, Quadrivalent Influenza,Vaccine, Trivalent Influenza,Virus Vaccine, Influenza
D008297 Male Males
D008875 Middle Aged An adult aged 45 - 64 years. Middle Age
D002648 Child A person 6 to 12 years of age. An individual 2 to 5 years old is CHILD, PRESCHOOL. Children
D005260 Female Females
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000293 Adolescent A person 13 to 18 years of age. Adolescence,Youth,Adolescents,Adolescents, Female,Adolescents, Male,Teenagers,Teens,Adolescent, Female,Adolescent, Male,Female Adolescent,Female Adolescents,Male Adolescent,Male Adolescents,Teen,Teenager,Youths
D000328 Adult A person having attained full growth or maturity. Adults are of 19 through 44 years of age. For a person between 19 and 24 years of age, YOUNG ADULT is available. Adults
D000368 Aged A person 65 years of age or older. For a person older than 79 years, AGED, 80 AND OVER is available. Elderly

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