A Likelihood Approach for Real-Time Calibration of Stochastic Compartmental Epidemic Models. 2017

Christoph Zimmer, and Reza Yaesoubi, and Ted Cohen
Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America.

Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens given the importance of chance events when the number of infectious individuals is small. However, methods for parameter estimation and prediction for these types of stochastic models remain limited. In this manuscript, we describe a calibration and prediction framework for stochastic compartmental transmission models of epidemics. The proposed method, Multiple Shooting for Stochastic systems (MSS), applies a linear noise approximation to describe the size of the fluctuations, and uses each new surveillance observation to update the belief about the true epidemic state. Using simulated outbreaks of a novel viral pathogen, we evaluate the accuracy of MSS for real-time parameter estimation and prediction during epidemics. We assume that weekly counts for the number of new diagnosed cases are available and serve as an imperfect proxy of incidence. We show that MSS produces accurate estimates of key epidemic parameters (i.e. mean duration of infectiousness, R0, and Reff) and can provide an accurate estimate of the unobserved number of infectious individuals during the course of an epidemic. MSS also allows for accurate prediction of the number and timing of future hospitalizations and the overall attack rate. We compare the performance of MSS to three state-of-the-art benchmark methods: 1) a likelihood approximation with an assumption of independent Poisson observations; 2) a particle filtering method; and 3) an ensemble Kalman filter method. We find that MSS significantly outperforms each of these three benchmark methods in the majority of epidemic scenarios tested. In summary, MSS is a promising method that may improve on current approaches for calibration and prediction using stochastic models of epidemics.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D002138 Calibration Determination, by measurement or comparison with a standard, of the correct value of each scale reading on a meter or other measuring instrument; or determination of the settings of a control device that correspond to particular values of voltage, current, frequency or other output. Calibrations
D003198 Computer Simulation Computer-based representation of physical systems and phenomena such as chemical processes. Computational Modeling,Computational Modelling,Computer Models,In silico Modeling,In silico Models,In silico Simulation,Models, Computer,Computerized Models,Computer Model,Computer Simulations,Computerized Model,In silico Model,Model, Computer,Model, Computerized,Model, In silico,Modeling, Computational,Modeling, In silico,Modelling, Computational,Simulation, Computer,Simulation, In silico,Simulations, Computer
D003199 Computer Systems Systems composed of a computer or computers, peripheral equipment, such as disks, printers, and terminals, and telecommunications capabilities. Computer Architecture,Computer System,Computer Systems Development,Computer Systems Evaluation,Computer Systems Organization,Real Time System,Real-Time Systems,Organization, Computer Systems,Architecture, Computer,Architectures, Computer,Computer Architectures,Computer Systems Evaluations,Development, Computer Systems,Evaluation, Computer Systems,Evaluations, Computer Systems,Real Time Systems,Real-Time System,System, Computer,System, Real Time,System, Real-Time,Systems, Computer,Systems, Real Time,Systems, Real-Time,Time System, Real,Time Systems, Real
D003627 Data Interpretation, Statistical Application of statistical procedures to analyze specific observed or assumed facts from a particular study. Data Analysis, Statistical,Data Interpretations, Statistical,Interpretation, Statistical Data,Statistical Data Analysis,Statistical Data Interpretation,Analyses, Statistical Data,Analysis, Statistical Data,Data Analyses, Statistical,Interpretations, Statistical Data,Statistical Data Analyses,Statistical Data Interpretations
D004812 Epidemiologic Methods Research techniques that focus on study designs and data gathering methods in human and animal populations. Epidemiologic Method,Epidemiological Methods,Methods, Epidemiologic,Epidemiological Method,Method, Epidemiologic,Method, Epidemiological,Methods, Epidemiological
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000818 Animals Unicellular or multicellular, heterotrophic organisms, that have sensation and the power of voluntary movement. Under the older five kingdom paradigm, Animalia was one of the kingdoms. Under the modern three domain model, Animalia represents one of the many groups in the domain EUKARYOTA. Animal,Metazoa,Animalia
D012680 Sensitivity and Specificity Binary classification measures to assess test results. Sensitivity or recall rate is the proportion of true positives. Specificity is the probability of correctly determining the absence of a condition. (From Last, Dictionary of Epidemiology, 2d ed) Specificity,Sensitivity,Specificity and Sensitivity
D013269 Stochastic Processes Processes that incorporate some element of randomness, used particularly to refer to a time series of random variables. Process, Stochastic,Stochastic Process,Processes, Stochastic
D015203 Reproducibility of Results The statistical reproducibility of measurements (often in a clinical context), including the testing of instrumentation or techniques to obtain reproducible results. The concept includes reproducibility of physiological measurements, which may be used to develop rules to assess probability or prognosis, or response to a stimulus; reproducibility of occurrence of a condition; and reproducibility of experimental results. Reliability and Validity,Reliability of Result,Reproducibility Of Result,Reproducibility of Finding,Validity of Result,Validity of Results,Face Validity,Reliability (Epidemiology),Reliability of Results,Reproducibility of Findings,Test-Retest Reliability,Validity (Epidemiology),Finding Reproducibilities,Finding Reproducibility,Of Result, Reproducibility,Of Results, Reproducibility,Reliabilities, Test-Retest,Reliability, Test-Retest,Result Reliabilities,Result Reliability,Result Validities,Result Validity,Result, Reproducibility Of,Results, Reproducibility Of,Test Retest Reliability,Validity and Reliability,Validity, Face

Related Publications

Christoph Zimmer, and Reza Yaesoubi, and Ted Cohen
July 2021, Biostatistics (Oxford, England),
Christoph Zimmer, and Reza Yaesoubi, and Ted Cohen
January 1985, IMA journal of mathematics applied in medicine and biology,
Christoph Zimmer, and Reza Yaesoubi, and Ted Cohen
January 1989, Journal of mathematical biology,
Christoph Zimmer, and Reza Yaesoubi, and Ted Cohen
January 1993, IMA journal of mathematics applied in medicine and biology,
Christoph Zimmer, and Reza Yaesoubi, and Ted Cohen
December 1988, Biometrics,
Christoph Zimmer, and Reza Yaesoubi, and Ted Cohen
June 2023, Bollettino della Unione matematica italiana (2008),
Christoph Zimmer, and Reza Yaesoubi, and Ted Cohen
May 2010, Mathematical biosciences,
Christoph Zimmer, and Reza Yaesoubi, and Ted Cohen
August 2007, Journal of mathematical biology,
Christoph Zimmer, and Reza Yaesoubi, and Ted Cohen
January 1995, Mathematical biosciences,
Christoph Zimmer, and Reza Yaesoubi, and Ted Cohen
June 2024, Mathematical biosciences,
Copied contents to your clipboard!