Predicting first trimester pregnancy outcome: derivation of a multiple marker test. 2016

Suneeta Senapati, and Mary D Sammel, and Samantha F Butts, and Peter Takacs, and Karine Chung, and Kurt T Barnhart
Department Obstetrics and Gynecology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Electronic address: Suneeta.Senapati@uphs.upenn.edu.

OBJECTIVE To predict first trimester pregnancy outcome using biomarkers in a multicenter cohort. METHODS Case-control study. METHODS Three academic centers. METHODS Women with pain and bleeding in early pregnancy. METHODS Sera from women who were 5-12 weeks' gestational age with ectopic pregnancy (EP), viable intrauterine pregnancy (IUP), and miscarriage/spontaneous abortion (SAB) was analyzed by ELISA and immunoassay for activin A, inhibin A, P, A Disintegrin And Metalloprotease-12, pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A), pregnancy specific B1-glycoprotein (SP1), placental-like growth factor, vascular endothelial growth factor, glycodelin (Glyc), and hCG. Classification trees were developed to optimize sensitivity/specificity for pregnancy location and viability. METHODS Area under receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of first trimester pregnancy outcome. RESULTS In 230 pregnancies, the combination of trees to maximize sensitivity and specificity resulted in 73% specificity (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.65-0.80) and 31% sensitivity (95% CI 0.21-0.43) for viability. Similar methods had 21% sensitivity (95% CI 0.12-0.32) and 33% specificity (95% CI 0.26-0.41) for location. Activin A, Glyc, and A Disintegrin And Metalloprotease-12 definitively classified pregnancy location in 29% of the sample with 100% accuracy for EP. Progesterone and PAPP-A classified the viability in 61% of the sample with 94% accuracy. CONCLUSIONS Multiple marker panels can distinguish pregnancy location and viability in a subset of women at risk for early pregnancy complications. This strategy of combining markers to maximize sensitivity and specificity results in high accuracy in a subset of subjects. Activin A, ADAM12, and Glyc are the most promising markers for pregnancy location; P and PAPP-A for viability.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007118 Immunoassay A technique using antibodies for identifying or quantifying a substance. Usually the substance being studied serves as antigen both in antibody production and in measurement of antibody by the test substance. Immunochromatographic Assay,Assay, Immunochromatographic,Assays, Immunochromatographic,Immunoassays,Immunochromatographic Assays
D011237 Predictive Value of Tests In screening and diagnostic tests, the probability that a person with a positive test is a true positive (i.e., has the disease), is referred to as the predictive value of a positive test; whereas, the predictive value of a negative test is the probability that the person with a negative test does not have the disease. Predictive value is related to the sensitivity and specificity of the test. Negative Predictive Value,Positive Predictive Value,Predictive Value Of Test,Predictive Values Of Tests,Negative Predictive Values,Positive Predictive Values,Predictive Value, Negative,Predictive Value, Positive
D011247 Pregnancy The status during which female mammals carry their developing young (EMBRYOS or FETUSES) in utero before birth, beginning from FERTILIZATION to BIRTH. Gestation,Pregnancies
D011256 Pregnancy Outcome Results of conception and ensuing pregnancy, including LIVE BIRTH; STILLBIRTH; or SPONTANEOUS ABORTION. The outcome may follow natural or artificial insemination or any of the various ASSISTED REPRODUCTIVE TECHNIQUES, such as EMBRYO TRANSFER or FERTILIZATION IN VITRO. Outcome, Pregnancy,Outcomes, Pregnancy,Pregnancy Outcomes
D011261 Pregnancy Trimester, First The beginning third of a human PREGNANCY, from the first day of the last normal menstrual period (MENSTRUATION) through the completion of 14 weeks (98 days) of gestation. Early Placental Phase,Pregnancy, First Trimester,Trimester, First,Early Placental Phases,First Pregnancy Trimester,First Pregnancy Trimesters,First Trimester,First Trimester Pregnancies,First Trimester Pregnancy,First Trimesters,Phase, Early Placental,Phases, Early Placental,Placental Phase, Early,Placental Phases, Early,Pregnancies, First Trimester,Pregnancy Trimesters, First,Trimesters, First
D011266 Pregnancy-Associated Plasma Protein-A A product of the PLACENTA, and DECIDUA, secreted into the maternal circulation during PREGNANCY. It has been identified as an IGF binding protein (IGFBP)-4 protease that proteolyzes IGFBP-4 and thus increases IGF bioavailability. It is found also in human FIBROBLASTS, ovarian FOLLICULAR FLUID, and GRANULOSA CELLS. The enzyme is a heterotetramer of about 500-kDa. PAPP-A,IGFBP-4 Metalloproteinase,IGFBP-4 Protease,IGFBP-4-Specific Proteinase,Insulin-Like Growth Factor-Dependent IGF Binding Protein-4 Protease,Insulin-Like-Growth Factor Binding Protein-4 Protease,PAPP-alpha,Pregnancy Associated alpha Plasma Protein,Pregnancy-Associated alpha-Plasma Protein,IGFBP 4 Metalloproteinase,IGFBP 4 Protease,Insulin Like Growth Factor Binding Protein 4 Protease,Insulin Like Growth Factor Dependent IGF Binding Protein 4 Protease,Metalloproteinase, IGFBP-4,PAPP alpha,Pregnancy Associated Plasma Protein A,Protease, IGFBP-4
D011271 Pregnancy, Ectopic A potentially life-threatening condition in which EMBRYO IMPLANTATION occurs outside the cavity of the UTERUS. Most ectopic pregnancies (>96%) occur in the FALLOPIAN TUBES, known as TUBAL PREGNANCY. They can be in other locations, such as UTERINE CERVIX; OVARY; and abdominal cavity (PREGNANCY, ABDOMINAL). Ectopic Pregnancy,Pregnancy, Extrauterine,Ectopic Pregnancies,Extrauterine Pregnancies,Extrauterine Pregnancy,Pregnancies, Ectopic,Pregnancies, Extrauterine
D011374 Progesterone The major progestational steroid that is secreted primarily by the CORPUS LUTEUM and the PLACENTA. Progesterone acts on the UTERUS, the MAMMARY GLANDS and the BRAIN. It is required in EMBRYO IMPLANTATION; PREGNANCY maintenance, and the development of mammary tissue for MILK production. Progesterone, converted from PREGNENOLONE, also serves as an intermediate in the biosynthesis of GONADAL STEROID HORMONES and adrenal CORTICOSTEROIDS. Pregnenedione,Progesterone, (13 alpha,17 alpha)-(+-)-Isomer,Progesterone, (17 alpha)-Isomer,Progesterone, (9 beta,10 alpha)-Isomer
D004797 Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay An immunoassay utilizing an antibody labeled with an enzyme marker such as horseradish peroxidase. While either the enzyme or the antibody is bound to an immunosorbent substrate, they both retain their biologic activity; the change in enzyme activity as a result of the enzyme-antibody-antigen reaction is proportional to the concentration of the antigen and can be measured spectrophotometrically or with the naked eye. Many variations of the method have been developed. ELISA,Assay, Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent,Assays, Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent,Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay,Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assays,Immunosorbent Assay, Enzyme-Linked,Immunosorbent Assays, Enzyme-Linked
D005260 Female Females

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