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The projected incidence of AIDS and estimated prevalence of HIV infection in the United States. 1988

J M Karon, and T J Dondero, and J W Curran
AIDS Program, Centers for Disease Control, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Atlanta, Georgia 30333.

Planning for health and social services and for prevention programs requires predicting the number of AIDS cases likely to be diagnosed during the next several years and estimating the prevalence of HIV infection. Extrapolating from recent AIDS incidence data, we estimate that 365,000 AIDS cases will be diagnosed in the United States through 1992 (68% prediction interval, 205,000 to 440,000). Both recent HIV seroprevalence surveys and historical AIDS incidence are consistent with the U.S. Public Health Service estimate that 1.0 to 1.5 million persons in the United States are now infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Although current estimates of future AIDS cases and of current prevalence of HIV infection are somewhat uncertain, better statistical estimation procedures are being developed, and current surveys will provide additional data on HIV prevalence in the United States within the next several years.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007275 Injections, Intravenous Injections made into a vein for therapeutic or experimental purposes. Intravenous Injections,Injection, Intravenous,Intravenous Injection
D008297 Male Males
D002487 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. An agency of the UNITED STATES PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICE that conducts and supports programs for the prevention and control of disease and provides consultation and assistance to health departments and other countries. United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,CDC,CDCP,Center for Disease Control,Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Centers for Disease Control,Centers for Disease Control (U.S.),Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (U.S.),Centers for Disease Control, U.S.,United States Centers for Disease Control
D003430 Cross-Sectional Studies Studies in which the presence or absence of disease or other health-related variables are determined in each member of the study population or in a representative sample at one particular time. This contrasts with LONGITUDINAL STUDIES which are followed over a period of time. Disease Frequency Surveys,Prevalence Studies,Analysis, Cross-Sectional,Cross Sectional Analysis,Cross-Sectional Survey,Surveys, Disease Frequency,Analyses, Cross Sectional,Analyses, Cross-Sectional,Analysis, Cross Sectional,Cross Sectional Analyses,Cross Sectional Studies,Cross Sectional Survey,Cross-Sectional Analyses,Cross-Sectional Analysis,Cross-Sectional Study,Cross-Sectional Surveys,Disease Frequency Survey,Prevalence Study,Studies, Cross-Sectional,Studies, Prevalence,Study, Cross-Sectional,Study, Prevalence,Survey, Cross-Sectional,Survey, Disease Frequency,Surveys, Cross-Sectional
D005260 Female Females
D005544 Forecasting The prediction or projection of the nature of future problems or existing conditions based upon the extrapolation or interpretation of existing scientific data or by the application of scientific methodology. Futurology,Projections and Predictions,Future,Predictions and Projections
D006306 Health Surveys A systematic collection of factual data pertaining to health and disease in a human population within a given geographic area. Abortion Surveys,Abortion Survey,Health Survey,Survey, Abortion,Survey, Health,Surveys, Abortion,Surveys, Health
D006679 HIV Seropositivity Development of neutralizing antibodies in individuals who have been exposed to the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV/HTLV-III/LAV). AIDS Seroconversion,AIDS Seropositivity,Anti-HIV Positivity,HIV Antibody Positivity,HIV Seroconversion,HTLV-III Seroconversion,HTLV-III Seropositivity,AIDS Seroconversions,AIDS Seropositivities,Anti HIV Positivity,Anti-HIV Positivities,Antibody Positivities, HIV,Antibody Positivity, HIV,HIV Antibody Positivities,HIV Seroconversions,HIV Seropositivities,HTLV III Seroconversion,HTLV III Seropositivity,HTLV-III Seroconversions,HTLV-III Seropositivities,Positivities, Anti-HIV,Positivities, HIV Antibody,Positivity, Anti-HIV,Positivity, HIV Antibody,Seroconversion, AIDS,Seroconversion, HIV,Seroconversion, HTLV-III,Seroconversions, AIDS,Seroconversions, HIV,Seroconversions, HTLV-III,Seropositivities, AIDS,Seropositivities, HIV,Seropositivities, HTLV-III,Seropositivity, AIDS,Seropositivity, HIV,Seropositivity, HTLV-III
D006716 Homosexuality The sexual attraction or relationship between members of the same SEX. Homosexuality, Ego-Dystonic,Ego-Dystonic Homosexuality,Homosexuality, Ego Dystonic
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man

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