The effect of cigarette price increases on cigarette consumption, tax revenue, and smoking-related death in Africa from 1999 to 2013. 2017

Li-Ming Ho, and Christian Schafferer, and Jie-Min Lee, and Chun-Yuan Yeh, and Chi-Jung Hsieh
Department of Marine Leisure Management, National Kaohsiung Marine University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.

OBJECTIVE This study investigates the effects of price hikes on cigarette consumption, tobacco tax revenues, and reduction in smoking-caused mortality in 36 African countries. METHODS Using panel data from the 1999-2013 Euromonitor International, the World Bank and the World Health Organization, we applied fixed-effects and random-effects regression models of panel data to estimate the elasticity of cigarette prices and simulate the effect of price fluctuations. RESULTS Cigarette price elasticity was the highest for low-income countries and considerably lower for other African economies. The administered simulation shows that with an average annual cigarette price increase of 7.38%, the average annual cigarette consumption would decrease by 3.84%, and the average annual tobacco tax revenue would increase by 19.39%. By 2050, the number of averted smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) will be the highest in South Africa, followed by the Democratic Republic of Congo, Madagascar, and Ethiopia. CONCLUSIONS Excise tax increases have a significant effect on the reduction of smoking prevalence and the number of averted smoking-attributable deaths, Low-income countries are most affected by high taxation policies.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D011640 Public Policy A course or method of action selected, usually by a government, from among alternatives to guide and determine present and future decisions. Social Policy,Affirmative Action,Migration Policy,Population Policy,Social Protection,Action, Affirmative,Migration Policies,Policies, Migration,Policies, Population,Policies, Public,Policies, Social,Policy, Migration,Policy, Population,Policy, Public,Policy, Social,Population Policies,Protection, Social,Public Policies,Social Policies
D003132 Commerce The interchange of goods or commodities, especially on a large scale, between different countries or between populations within the same country. It includes trade (the buying, selling, or exchanging of commodities, whether wholesale or retail) and business (the purchase and sale of goods to make a profit). (From Random House Unabridged Dictionary, 2d ed, p411, p2005 & p283) Business,Commercial Sector,Prices,Sales,Vendors,Businesses,Commerces,Commercial Sectors,Price,Sale,Sector, Commercial,Sectors, Commercial,Vendor
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000349 Africa The continent south of EUROPE, east of the ATLANTIC OCEAN and west of the INDIAN OCEAN.
D012907 Smoking Willful or deliberate act of inhaling and exhaling SMOKE from burning substances or agents held by hand. Smoking Behaviors,Smoking Habit,Behavior, Smoking,Behaviors, Smoking,Habit, Smoking,Habits, Smoking,Smoking Behavior,Smoking Habits
D013660 Taxes Governmental levies on property, inheritance, gifts, etc. Institutional Tax,Institutional Taxes,Tax,Taxation,Tax, Institutional,Taxes, Institutional
D015995 Prevalence The total number of cases of a given disease in a specified population at a designated time. It is differentiated from INCIDENCE, which refers to the number of new cases in the population at a given time. Period Prevalence,Point Prevalence,Period Prevalences,Point Prevalences,Prevalence, Period,Prevalence, Point,Prevalences
D062789 Tobacco Products Substances and products derived from NICOTIANA TABACUM. Cigarettes,Cigars,Bidis,Bidis Tobacco,Cigarillos,Kreteks,Kreteks Tobacco,Pipe Tobacco,Tobacco, Bidi,Bidi,Bidi Tobacco,Bidi Tobaccos,Bidis Tobaccos,Cigar,Cigarette,Cigarillo,Kretek,Kreteks Tobaccos,Pipe Tobaccos,Product, Tobacco,Products, Tobacco,Tobacco Product,Tobacco, Bidis,Tobacco, Kreteks,Tobacco, Pipe,Tobaccos, Bidi,Tobaccos, Bidis,Tobaccos, Kreteks,Tobaccos, Pipe

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