Air quality and acute deaths in California, 2000-2012. 2017

S Stanley Young, and Richard L Smith, and Keneth K Lopiano
CGStat, 3401 Caldwell Drive, Raleigh, NC 27607, United States. Electronic address: genetree@bellsouth.net.

Many studies have shown an association between air quality and acute deaths, and such associations are widely interpreted as causal. Several factors call causation and even association into question, for example multiple testing and multiple modeling, publication bias and confirmation bias. Many published studies are difficult or impossible to reproduce because of lack of access to confidential data sources. Here we make publically available a dataset containing daily air quality levels, PM2.5 and ozone, daily temperature levels, minimum and maximum and daily maximum relative humidity levels for the eight most populous California air basins, thirteen years, >2M deaths, over 37,000 exposure days. The data are analyzed using standard time series analysis, and a sensitivity analysis is computed varying model parameters, locations and years. Our analysis finds little evidence for association between air quality and acute deaths. These results are consistent with those for the widely cited NMMAPS dataset when the latter are restricted to California. The daily death variability was mostly explained by time of year or weather variables; Neither PM2.5 nor ozone added appreciably to the prediction of daily deaths. These results call into question the widespread belief that association between air quality and acute deaths is causal/near-universal.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D009026 Mortality All deaths reported in a given population. CFR Case Fatality Rate,Crude Death Rate,Crude Mortality Rate,Death Rate,Age Specific Death Rate,Age-Specific Death Rate,Case Fatality Rate,Decline, Mortality,Determinants, Mortality,Differential Mortality,Excess Mortality,Mortality Decline,Mortality Determinants,Mortality Rate,Mortality, Differential,Mortality, Excess,Age-Specific Death Rates,Case Fatality Rates,Crude Death Rates,Crude Mortality Rates,Death Rate, Age-Specific,Death Rate, Crude,Death Rates,Determinant, Mortality,Differential Mortalities,Excess Mortalities,Mortalities,Mortality Declines,Mortality Determinant,Mortality Rate, Crude,Mortality Rates,Rate, Age-Specific Death,Rate, Case Fatality,Rate, Crude Death,Rate, Crude Mortality,Rate, Death,Rate, Mortality,Rates, Case Fatality
D010126 Ozone The unstable triatomic form of oxygen, O3. It is a powerful oxidant that is produced for various chemical and industrial uses. Its production is also catalyzed in the ATMOSPHERE by ULTRAVIOLET RAY irradiation of oxygen or other ozone precursors such as VOLATILE ORGANIC COMPOUNDS and NITROGEN OXIDES. About 90% of the ozone in the atmosphere exists in the stratosphere (STRATOSPHERIC OZONE). Ground Level Ozone,Low Level Ozone,Tropospheric Ozone,Level Ozone, Ground,Level Ozone, Low,Ozone, Ground Level,Ozone, Low Level,Ozone, Tropospheric
D002140 California State bounded on the east by Nevada and Arizona, on the south by Mexico and the Pacific Ocean on the south and west, and on the north by Oregon.
D002423 Cause of Death Factors which produce cessation of all vital bodily functions. They can be analyzed from an epidemiologic viewpoint. Causes of Death,Death Cause,Death Causes
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000393 Air Pollutants Any substance in the air which could, if present in high enough concentration, harm humans, animals, vegetation or materials. Substances include GASES; PARTICULATE MATTER; and volatile ORGANIC CHEMICALS. Air Pollutant,Air Pollutants, Environmental,Environmental Air Pollutants,Environmental Pollutants, Air,Air Environmental Pollutants,Pollutant, Air,Pollutants, Air,Pollutants, Air Environmental,Pollutants, Environmental Air
D000397 Air Pollution The presence of contaminants or pollutant substances in the air (AIR POLLUTANTS) that interfere with human health or welfare, or produce other harmful environmental effects. The substances may include GASES; PARTICULATE MATTER; or volatile ORGANIC CHEMICALS. Air Quality,Air Pollutions,Pollution, Air
D052638 Particulate Matter Particles of any solid substance, generally under 30 microns in size, often noted as PM30. There is special concern with PM1 which can get down to PULMONARY ALVEOLI and induce MACROPHAGE ACTIVATION and PHAGOCYTOSIS leading to FOREIGN BODY REACTION and LUNG DISEASES. Ultrafine Fiber,Ultrafine Fibers,Ultrafine Particle,Ultrafine Particles,Ultrafine Particulate Matter,Air Pollutants, Particulate,Airborne Particulate Matter,Ambient Particulate Matter,Fiber, Ultrafine,Particle, Ultrafine,Particles, Ultrafine,Particulate Air Pollutants,Particulate Matter, Airborne,Particulate Matter, Ambient,Particulate Matter, Ultrafine

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