Modelling and sample size reestimation for longitudinal count data with incomplete follow up. 2019

Thomas Asendorf, and Robin Henderson, and Heinz Schmidli, and Tim Friede
1 Department of Medical Statistics, University Medical Center Göttingen, Germany.

We consider modelling and inference as well as sample size estimation and reestimation for clinical trials with longitudinal count data as outcomes. Our approach is general but is rooted in design and analysis of multiple sclerosis trials where lesion counts obtained by magnetic resonance imaging are important endpoints. We adopt a binomial thinning model that allows for correlated counts with marginal Poisson or negative binomial distributions. Methods for sample size planning and blinded sample size reestimation for randomised controlled clinical trials with such outcomes are developed. The models and approaches are applicable to data with incomplete observations. A simulation study is conducted to assess the effectiveness of sample size estimation and blinded sample size reestimation methods. Sample sizes attained through these procedures are shown to maintain the desired study power without inflating the type I error. Data from a recent trial in patients with secondary progressive multiple sclerosis illustrate the modelling approach.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008137 Longitudinal Studies Studies in which variables relating to an individual or group of individuals are assessed over a period of time. Bogalusa Heart Study,California Teachers Study,Framingham Heart Study,Jackson Heart Study,Longitudinal Survey,Tuskegee Syphilis Study,Bogalusa Heart Studies,California Teachers Studies,Framingham Heart Studies,Heart Studies, Bogalusa,Heart Studies, Framingham,Heart Studies, Jackson,Heart Study, Bogalusa,Heart Study, Framingham,Heart Study, Jackson,Jackson Heart Studies,Longitudinal Study,Longitudinal Surveys,Studies, Bogalusa Heart,Studies, California Teachers,Studies, Jackson Heart,Studies, Longitudinal,Study, Bogalusa Heart,Study, California Teachers,Study, Longitudinal,Survey, Longitudinal,Surveys, Longitudinal,Syphilis Studies, Tuskegee,Syphilis Study, Tuskegee,Teachers Studies, California,Teachers Study, California,Tuskegee Syphilis Studies
D008279 Magnetic Resonance Imaging Non-invasive method of demonstrating internal anatomy based on the principle that atomic nuclei in a strong magnetic field absorb pulses of radiofrequency energy and emit them as radiowaves which can be reconstructed into computerized images. The concept includes proton spin tomographic techniques. Chemical Shift Imaging,MR Tomography,MRI Scans,MRI, Functional,Magnetic Resonance Image,Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Functional,Magnetization Transfer Contrast Imaging,NMR Imaging,NMR Tomography,Tomography, NMR,Tomography, Proton Spin,fMRI,Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging,Imaging, Chemical Shift,Proton Spin Tomography,Spin Echo Imaging,Steady-State Free Precession MRI,Tomography, MR,Zeugmatography,Chemical Shift Imagings,Echo Imaging, Spin,Echo Imagings, Spin,Functional MRI,Functional MRIs,Image, Magnetic Resonance,Imaging, Magnetic Resonance,Imaging, NMR,Imaging, Spin Echo,Imagings, Chemical Shift,Imagings, Spin Echo,MRI Scan,MRIs, Functional,Magnetic Resonance Images,Resonance Image, Magnetic,Scan, MRI,Scans, MRI,Shift Imaging, Chemical,Shift Imagings, Chemical,Spin Echo Imagings,Steady State Free Precession MRI
D009103 Multiple Sclerosis An autoimmune disorder mainly affecting young adults and characterized by destruction of myelin in the central nervous system. Pathologic findings include multiple sharply demarcated areas of demyelination throughout the white matter of the central nervous system. Clinical manifestations include visual loss, extra-ocular movement disorders, paresthesias, loss of sensation, weakness, dysarthria, spasticity, ataxia, and bladder dysfunction. The usual pattern is one of recurrent attacks followed by partial recovery (see MULTIPLE SCLEROSIS, RELAPSING-REMITTING), but acute fulminating and chronic progressive forms (see MULTIPLE SCLEROSIS, CHRONIC PROGRESSIVE) also occur. (Adams et al., Principles of Neurology, 6th ed, p903) MS (Multiple Sclerosis),Multiple Sclerosis, Acute Fulminating,Sclerosis, Disseminated,Disseminated Sclerosis,Sclerosis, Multiple
D003627 Data Interpretation, Statistical Application of statistical procedures to analyze specific observed or assumed facts from a particular study. Data Analysis, Statistical,Data Interpretations, Statistical,Interpretation, Statistical Data,Statistical Data Analysis,Statistical Data Interpretation,Analyses, Statistical Data,Analysis, Statistical Data,Data Analyses, Statistical,Interpretations, Statistical Data,Statistical Data Analyses,Statistical Data Interpretations
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D013223 Statistics as Topic Works about the science and art of collecting, summarizing, and analyzing data that are subject to random variation. Area Analysis,Estimation Technics,Estimation Techniques,Indirect Estimation Technics,Indirect Estimation Techniques,Multiple Classification Analysis,Service Statistics,Statistical Study,Statistics, Service,Tables and Charts as Topic,Analyses, Area,Analyses, Multiple Classification,Area Analyses,Classification Analyses, Multiple,Classification Analysis, Multiple,Estimation Technic, Indirect,Estimation Technics, Indirect,Estimation Technique,Estimation Technique, Indirect,Estimation Techniques, Indirect,Indirect Estimation Technic,Indirect Estimation Technique,Multiple Classification Analyses,Statistical Studies,Studies, Statistical,Study, Statistical,Technic, Indirect Estimation,Technics, Estimation,Technics, Indirect Estimation,Technique, Estimation,Technique, Indirect Estimation,Techniques, Estimation,Techniques, Indirect Estimation
D013997 Time Factors Elements of limited time intervals, contributing to particular results or situations. Time Series,Factor, Time,Time Factor
D015233 Models, Statistical Statistical formulations or analyses which, when applied to data and found to fit the data, are then used to verify the assumptions and parameters used in the analysis. Examples of statistical models are the linear model, binomial model, polynomial model, two-parameter model, etc. Probabilistic Models,Statistical Models,Two-Parameter Models,Model, Statistical,Models, Binomial,Models, Polynomial,Statistical Model,Binomial Model,Binomial Models,Model, Binomial,Model, Polynomial,Model, Probabilistic,Model, Two-Parameter,Models, Probabilistic,Models, Two-Parameter,Polynomial Model,Polynomial Models,Probabilistic Model,Two Parameter Models,Two-Parameter Model
D016012 Poisson Distribution A distribution function used to describe the occurrence of rare events or to describe the sampling distribution of isolated counts in a continuum of time or space. Distribution, Poisson
D016032 Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic Works about clinical trials that involve at least one test treatment and one control treatment, concurrent enrollment and follow-up of the test- and control-treated groups, and in which the treatments to be administered are selected by a random process, such as the use of a random-numbers table. Clinical Trials, Randomized,Controlled Clinical Trials, Randomized,Trials, Randomized Clinical

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