Pancreatic cancer incidence trends: evidence from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) population-based data. 2018

Vanessa L Gordon-Dseagu, and Susan S Devesa, and Michael Goggins, and Rachael Stolzenberg-Solomon
Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20850, USA.

Annual pancreatic cancer incidence rates have been increasing. We examine pancreatic cancer incidence trends by demographics and histologic type. Data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) registries were available to assess temporal trends and pancreatic cancer rates from 1974 to 2013. Pancreatic cancer incidence rates declined between the 1970s and 1990s but increased from 1994 to 2013 among White males. Among non-Hispanic White and Hispanic males, the annual percent change (APC) in incidence between 1992 and 2013 was 0.84% and 0.73%, respectively. Rates also rose among White non-Hispanic, Hispanic and Asian females (APC = 0.81%, 0.56% and 1.23%, respectively) and even more rapidly among females aged 25-34 years (APC > 2.5%). Rates among Black males and females remained unchanged, but higher compared with the other racial/ethnic groups. By histologic type, the increases were greatest for non-secretory endocrine cancers ( > 6%), followed by ductal adenocarcinomas (∼5%) and adenocarcinoma, NOS (∼1.4%)-the largest histologic subgroup of pancreatic cancer. Rates for mucinous adenocarcinomas and poorly specified pancreatic cancer decreased. Overall, incidence rates during 2000-13 were higher among males than females [MF incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 1.28]. The IRR was >1.00 at all ages ≥ 35, but rates among females were higher at younger ages (IRRs 15-24: 0.66, 25-34: 0.81). The MF IRRs for most of the histologic types were elevated among males apart from solid pseudopapillary adenocarcinoma and cystic carcinomas (IRR = 0.22, confidence interval: 0.14-0.34 and 0.52, 0.41-0.65, respectively). Pancreatic cancer has been increasing overall, but patterns differ by demographic group and histologic type. Many of the trends parallel changing prevalence of lifestyle risk factors such as smoking, overweight and obesity, and diabetes in the USA, particularly for pancreatic adenocarcinoma, and improved diagnosis methods during the past 40 years.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007223 Infant A child between 1 and 23 months of age. Infants
D007231 Infant, Newborn An infant during the first 28 days after birth. Neonate,Newborns,Infants, Newborn,Neonates,Newborn,Newborn Infant,Newborn Infants
D008297 Male Males
D008875 Middle Aged An adult aged 45 - 64 years. Middle Age
D010190 Pancreatic Neoplasms Tumors or cancer of the PANCREAS. Depending on the types of ISLET CELLS present in the tumors, various hormones can be secreted: GLUCAGON from PANCREATIC ALPHA CELLS; INSULIN from PANCREATIC BETA CELLS; and SOMATOSTATIN from the SOMATOSTATIN-SECRETING CELLS. Most are malignant except the insulin-producing tumors (INSULINOMA). Cancer of Pancreas,Pancreatic Cancer,Cancer of the Pancreas,Neoplasms, Pancreatic,Pancreas Cancer,Pancreas Neoplasms,Pancreatic Acinar Carcinoma,Pancreatic Carcinoma,Acinar Carcinoma, Pancreatic,Acinar Carcinomas, Pancreatic,Cancer, Pancreas,Cancer, Pancreatic,Cancers, Pancreas,Cancers, Pancreatic,Carcinoma, Pancreatic,Carcinoma, Pancreatic Acinar,Carcinomas, Pancreatic,Carcinomas, Pancreatic Acinar,Neoplasm, Pancreas,Neoplasm, Pancreatic,Neoplasms, Pancreas,Pancreas Cancers,Pancreas Neoplasm,Pancreatic Acinar Carcinomas,Pancreatic Cancers,Pancreatic Carcinomas,Pancreatic Neoplasm
D002648 Child A person 6 to 12 years of age. An individual 2 to 5 years old is CHILD, PRESCHOOL. Children
D002675 Child, Preschool A child between the ages of 2 and 5. Children, Preschool,Preschool Child,Preschool Children
D005260 Female Females
D005544 Forecasting The prediction or projection of the nature of future problems or existing conditions based upon the extrapolation or interpretation of existing scientific data or by the application of scientific methodology. Futurology,Projections and Predictions,Future,Predictions and Projections
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man

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