Taking error into account when fitting models using Approximate Bayesian Computation. 2018

Elske van der Vaart, and Dennis Prangle, and Richard M Sibly
School of Biological Sciences, University of Reading, Harborne Building, Whiteknights, Reading, Berkshire, RG6 6AS, United Kingdom.

Stochastic computer simulations are often the only practical way of answering questions relating to ecological management. However, due to their complexity, such models are difficult to calibrate and evaluate. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) offers an increasingly popular approach to this problem, widely applied across a variety of fields. However, ensuring the accuracy of ABC's estimates has been difficult. Here, we obtain more accurate estimates by incorporating estimation of error into the ABC protocol. We show how this can be done where the data consist of repeated measures of the same quantity and errors may be assumed to be normally distributed and independent. We then derive the correct acceptance probabilities for a probabilistic ABC algorithm, and update the coverage test with which accuracy is assessed. We apply this method, which we call error-calibrated ABC, to a toy example and a realistic 14-parameter simulation model of earthworms that is used in environmental risk assessment. A comparison with exact methods and the diagnostic coverage test show that our approach improves estimation of parameter values and their credible intervals for both models.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008954 Models, Biological Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of biological processes or diseases. For disease models in living animals, DISEASE MODELS, ANIMAL is available. Biological models include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Biological Model,Biological Models,Model, Biological,Models, Biologic,Biologic Model,Biologic Models,Model, Biologic
D009835 Oligochaeta A class of annelid worms with few setae per segment. It includes the earthworms such as Lumbricus and Eisenia. Earthworms,Eisenia foetida,Eisenia worm,Lumbricus,Lumbricus terrestris,Eisenia fetida,Earthworm,Eisenia fetidas,Eisenia foetidas,Eisenia worms,Lumbricus terrestri,Oligochaetas,fetida, Eisenia,foetidas, Eisenia,terrestris, Lumbricus,worm, Eisenia
D004463 Ecology The branch of science concerned with the interrelationship of organisms and their ENVIRONMENT, especially as manifested by natural cycles and rhythms, community development and structure, interactions between different kinds of organisms, geographic distributions, and population alterations. (Webster's, 3d ed) Bionomics,Ecologies
D000818 Animals Unicellular or multicellular, heterotrophic organisms, that have sensation and the power of voluntary movement. Under the older five kingdom paradigm, Animalia was one of the kingdoms. Under the modern three domain model, Animalia represents one of the many groups in the domain EUKARYOTA. Animal,Metazoa,Animalia
D001499 Bayes Theorem A theorem in probability theory named for Thomas Bayes (1702-1761). In epidemiology, it is used to obtain the probability of disease in a group of people with some characteristic on the basis of the overall rate of that disease and of the likelihood of that characteristic in healthy and diseased individuals. The most familiar application is in clinical decision analysis where it is used for estimating the probability of a particular diagnosis given the appearance of some symptoms or test result. Bayesian Analysis,Bayesian Estimation,Bayesian Forecast,Bayesian Method,Bayesian Prediction,Analysis, Bayesian,Bayesian Approach,Approach, Bayesian,Approachs, Bayesian,Bayesian Approachs,Estimation, Bayesian,Forecast, Bayesian,Method, Bayesian,Prediction, Bayesian,Theorem, Bayes

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