A novel scoring model for predicting mortality risk in patients with cirrhosis and hepatorenal syndrome. 2018

Shuan Zhang, and Ling-Ling He, and Xin-Hui Wang, and Zhi-Bo Dang, and Xiao-Li Liu, and Meng-Ge Li, and Xian-Bo Wang, and Zhi-Yun Yang

This study aimed to create a risk scoring model for death from cirrhosis and hepatorenal syndrome, improve the detection rate of high-risk groups, and provide clinical evidence for early intervention treatment. We retrospectively recruited 196 patients with cirrhosis and hepatorenal syndrome between 1 January 2013 and 31 July 2014 at Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, China. The clinical information, biochemical values, age, and sex of the patients were included in the multivariate logistic regression model for screening independent risk factors. The model was validated in 56 patients with cirrhosis and hepatorenal syndrome between 1 August 2014 and 31 December 2014 at Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, China. The death risk prediction scoring model included the following four independent risk factors: liver cancer, neutrophil above 70%, alanine aminotransferase higher than 40 U/l, and creatinine higher than 127 mmol/l. The sum death risk score ranged from 0 to 5: 0-2 identified patients with a lower risk of death (mortality rates: 12-41.4%), whereas 3-5 identified patients with a higher risk of death (mortality rates: 48.8-80%). Receiver-operating characteristic curves were constructed for the scoring model and the areas under the curves (AUC) were compared using the z-test. The AUC of the scoring model was 0.843. In addition, the AUC of validated model in 56 patients was 0.742. The scoring model can accurately predict mortality risk in patients with hepatorenal syndrome.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007958 Leukocyte Count The number of WHITE BLOOD CELLS per unit volume in venous BLOOD. A differential leukocyte count measures the relative numbers of the different types of white cells. Blood Cell Count, White,Differential Leukocyte Count,Leukocyte Count, Differential,Leukocyte Number,White Blood Cell Count,Count, Differential Leukocyte,Count, Leukocyte,Counts, Differential Leukocyte,Counts, Leukocyte,Differential Leukocyte Counts,Leukocyte Counts,Leukocyte Counts, Differential,Leukocyte Numbers,Number, Leukocyte,Numbers, Leukocyte
D008103 Liver Cirrhosis Liver disease in which the normal microcirculation, the gross vascular anatomy, and the hepatic architecture have been variably destroyed and altered with fibrous septa surrounding regenerated or regenerating parenchymal nodules. Cirrhosis, Liver,Fibrosis, Liver,Hepatic Cirrhosis,Liver Fibrosis,Cirrhosis, Hepatic
D008113 Liver Neoplasms Tumors or cancer of the LIVER. Cancer of Liver,Hepatic Cancer,Liver Cancer,Cancer of the Liver,Cancer, Hepatocellular,Hepatic Neoplasms,Hepatocellular Cancer,Neoplasms, Hepatic,Neoplasms, Liver,Cancer, Hepatic,Cancer, Liver,Cancers, Hepatic,Cancers, Hepatocellular,Cancers, Liver,Hepatic Cancers,Hepatic Neoplasm,Hepatocellular Cancers,Liver Cancers,Liver Neoplasm,Neoplasm, Hepatic,Neoplasm, Liver
D008297 Male Males
D008875 Middle Aged An adult aged 45 - 64 years. Middle Age
D009504 Neutrophils Granular leukocytes having a nucleus with three to five lobes connected by slender threads of chromatin, and cytoplasm containing fine inconspicuous granules and stainable by neutral dyes. LE Cells,Leukocytes, Polymorphonuclear,Polymorphonuclear Leukocytes,Polymorphonuclear Neutrophils,Neutrophil Band Cells,Band Cell, Neutrophil,Cell, LE,LE Cell,Leukocyte, Polymorphonuclear,Neutrophil,Neutrophil Band Cell,Neutrophil, Polymorphonuclear,Polymorphonuclear Leukocyte,Polymorphonuclear Neutrophil
D011237 Predictive Value of Tests In screening and diagnostic tests, the probability that a person with a positive test is a true positive (i.e., has the disease), is referred to as the predictive value of a positive test; whereas, the predictive value of a negative test is the probability that the person with a negative test does not have the disease. Predictive value is related to the sensitivity and specificity of the test. Negative Predictive Value,Positive Predictive Value,Predictive Value Of Test,Predictive Values Of Tests,Negative Predictive Values,Positive Predictive Values,Predictive Value, Negative,Predictive Value, Positive
D011379 Prognosis A prediction of the probable outcome of a disease based on a individual's condition and the usual course of the disease as seen in similar situations. Prognostic Factor,Prognostic Factors,Factor, Prognostic,Factors, Prognostic,Prognoses
D002681 China A country spanning from central Asia to the Pacific Ocean. Inner Mongolia,Manchuria,People's Republic of China,Sinkiang,Mainland China
D003404 Creatinine Creatinine Sulfate Salt,Krebiozen,Salt, Creatinine Sulfate,Sulfate Salt, Creatinine

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