Biomaterial Database

Structural and Practical Identifiability Analysis of Zika Epidemiological Models. 2018

Necibe Tuncer, and Maia Marctheva, and Brian LaBarre, and Sabrina Payoute

Department of Mathematical Sciences, Florida Atlantic University, Science Building, Room 234 777 Glades Road, Boca Raton, FL, 33431, USA. ntuncer@fau.edu.

The Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic has caused an ongoing threat to global health security and spurred new investigations of the virus. Use of epidemiological models for arbovirus diseases can be a powerful tool to assist in prevention and control of the emerging disease. In this article, we introduce six models of ZIKV, beginning with a general vector-borne model and gradually including different transmission routes of ZIKV. These epidemiological models use various combinations of disease transmission (vector and direct) and infectious classes (asymptomatic and pregnant), with addition to loss of immunity being included. The disease-induced death rate is omitted from the models. We test the structural and practical identifiability of the models to find whether unknown model parameters can uniquely be determined. The models were fit to obtain time-series data of cumulative incidences and pregnant infections from the Florida Department of Health Daily Zika Update Reports. The average relative estimation errors (AREs) were computed from the Monte Carlo simulations to further analyze the identifiability of the models. We show that direct transmission rates are not practically identifiable; however, fixed recovery rates improve identifiability overall. We found ARE is low for each model (only slightly higher for those that account for a pregnant class) and help to confirm a reproduction number greater than one at the start of the Florida epidemic. Basic reproduction number, [Formula: see text], is an epidemiologically important threshold value which gives the number of secondary cases generated by one infected individual in a totally susceptible population in duration of infectiousness. Elasticity of the reproduction numbers suggests that the mosquito-to-human ratio, mosquito life span and biting rate have the greatest potential for reducing the reproduction number of Zika, and therefore, corresponding control measures need to be focused on.

UI	MeSH Term	Description	Entries
D008954	Models, Biological	Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of biological processes or diseases. For disease models in living animals, DISEASE MODELS, ANIMAL is available. Biological models include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment.	Biological Model,Biological Models,Model, Biological,Models, Biologic,Biologic Model,Biologic Models,Model, Biologic
D009010	Monte Carlo Method	In statistics, a technique for numerically approximating the solution of a mathematical problem by studying the distribution of some random variable, often generated by a computer. The name alludes to the randomness characteristic of the games of chance played at the gambling casinos in Monte Carlo. (From Random House Unabridged Dictionary, 2d ed, 1993)	Method, Monte Carlo
D011247	Pregnancy	The status during which female mammals carry their developing young (EMBRYOS or FETUSES) in utero before birth, beginning from FERTILIZATION to BIRTH.	Gestation,Pregnancies
D011251	Pregnancy Complications, Infectious	The co-occurrence of pregnancy and an INFECTION. The infection may precede or follow FERTILIZATION.	Complications, Infectious Pregnancy,Infectious Pregnancy Complications,Maternal Sepsis,Pregnancy, Infectious Complications,Sepsis during Pregnancy,Sepsis in Pregnancy,Infectious Pregnancy Complication,Pregnancy Complication, Infectious,Sepsis in Pregnancies,Sepsis, Maternal
D003198	Computer Simulation	Computer-based representation of physical systems and phenomena such as chemical processes.	Computational Modeling,Computational Modelling,Computer Models,In silico Modeling,In silico Models,In silico Simulation,Models, Computer,Computerized Models,Computer Model,Computer Simulations,Computerized Model,In silico Model,Model, Computer,Model, Computerized,Model, In silico,Modeling, Computational,Modeling, In silico,Modelling, Computational,Simulation, Computer,Simulation, In silico,Simulations, Computer
D004196	Disease Outbreaks	Sudden increase in the incidence of a disease. The concept includes EPIDEMICS and PANDEMICS.	Outbreaks,Infectious Disease Outbreaks,Disease Outbreak,Disease Outbreak, Infectious,Disease Outbreaks, Infectious,Infectious Disease Outbreak,Outbreak, Disease,Outbreak, Infectious Disease,Outbreaks, Disease,Outbreaks, Infectious Disease
D005260	Female		Females
D005431	Florida	State bounded on east by the Atlantic Ocean, on the south by the Gulf of Mexico, on the west by Alabama and on the north by Alabama and Georgia.
D006801	Humans	Members of the species Homo sapiens.	Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000071243	Zika Virus Infection	A viral disease transmitted by the bite of AEDES mosquitoes infected with ZIKA VIRUS. Its mild DENGUE-like symptoms include fever, rash, headaches and ARTHRALGIA. The viral infection during pregnancy, in rare cases, is associated with congenital brain and ocular abnormalities, called Congenital Zika Syndrome, including MICROCEPHALY and may also lead to GUILLAIN-BARRE SYNDROME.	Congenital Zika Syndrome,Congenital Zika Virus Infection,Fever, Zika,ZikV Infection,Zika Fever,Zika Virus Disease,Disease, Zika Virus,Infection, ZikV,Infection, Zika Virus,Virus Disease, Zika,Virus Infection, Zika