Biomaterial Database

Value of External Data in the Extrapolation of Survival Data: A Study Using the NJR Data Set. 2018

Mark Pennington, and Richard Grieve, and Jan Van der Meulen, and Neil Hawkins

King's Health Economics, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King's College London, London, UK. Electronic address: mark.w.pennington@kcl.ac.uk.

Extrapolation of time-to-event data can be a critical component of cost-effectiveness analysis. To contrast the value of external data on treatment effects as a selection aid in model fitting to the clinical data or for the direct extrapolation of survival. We assume the existence of external summary data on both treatment and control and consider two scenarios: availability of external individual patient data (IPD) on the control only and an absence of external IPD. We describe how the summary data can be used to extrapolate survival or to assess the plausibility of extrapolations of the clinical data. We assess the merit of either approach using a comparison of cemented and cementless total hip replacement as a case study. Merit is judged by comparing incremental net benefit (INB) obtained in scenarios with incomplete IPD with that derived from modeling external IPD on both treatment and control. Measures of fit with the external summary data did not identify survival model specifications that best estimated INB. Addition of external IPD for the control only did not improve estimates of INB. Extrapolation of survival using the external summary data comparing treatment and control improved estimates of INB. Our case study indicates that summary data comparing treatment and control are more valuable than IPD limited to the control when extrapolating event rates for cost-effectiveness analysis. These data are best exploited in direct extrapolation of event rates rather than as an aid to select extrapolations on the basis of the clinical data.

UI	MeSH Term	Description	Entries
D008297	Male		Males
D008390	Markov Chains	A stochastic process such that the conditional probability distribution for a state at any future instant, given the present state, is unaffected by any additional knowledge of the past history of the system.	Markov Process,Markov Chain,Chain, Markov,Chains, Markov,Markov Processes,Process, Markov,Processes, Markov
D008875	Middle Aged	An adult aged 45 - 64 years.	Middle Age
D011183	Postoperative Complications	Pathologic processes that affect patients after a surgical procedure. They may or may not be related to the disease for which the surgery was done, and they may or may not be direct results of the surgery.	Complication, Postoperative,Complications, Postoperative,Postoperative Complication
D011474	Prosthesis Design	The plan and delineation of prostheses in general or a specific prosthesis.	Design, Prosthesis,Designs, Prosthesis,Prosthesis Designs
D011475	Prosthesis Failure	Malfunction of implantation shunts, valves, etc., and prosthesis loosening, migration, and breaking.	Prosthesis Loosening,Prosthesis Durability,Prosthesis Migration,Prosthesis Survival,Durabilities, Prosthesis,Durability, Prosthesis,Failure, Prosthesis,Failures, Prosthesis,Loosening, Prosthesis,Loosenings, Prosthesis,Migration, Prosthesis,Migrations, Prosthesis,Prosthesis Durabilities,Prosthesis Failures,Prosthesis Loosenings,Prosthesis Migrations,Prosthesis Survivals,Survival, Prosthesis,Survivals, Prosthesis
D012042	Registries	The systems and processes involved in the establishment, support, management, and operation of registers, e.g., disease registers.	Parish Registers,Population Register,Parish Register,Population Registers,Register, Parish,Register, Population,Registers, Parish,Registers, Population,Registry
D001843	Bone Cements	Adhesives used to fix prosthetic devices to bones and to cement bone to bone in difficult fractures. Synthetic resins are commonly used as cements. A mixture of monocalcium phosphate, monohydrate, alpha-tricalcium phosphate, and calcium carbonate with a sodium phosphate solution is also a useful bone paste.	Bone Cement,Bone Glues,Bone Pastes,Bone Glue,Bone Paste,Cement, Bone,Cements, Bone,Glue, Bone,Glues, Bone,Paste, Bone,Pastes, Bone
D003362	Cost-Benefit Analysis	A method of comparing the cost of a program with its expected benefits in dollars (or other currency). The benefit-to-cost ratio is a measure of total return expected per unit of money spent. This analysis generally excludes consideration of factors that are not measured ultimately in economic terms. In contrast a cost effectiveness in general compares cost with qualitative outcomes.	Cost and Benefit,Cost-Benefit Data,Benefits and Costs,Cost Benefit,Cost Benefit Analysis,Cost-Utility Analysis,Costs and Benefits,Economic Evaluation,Marginal Analysis,Analyses, Cost Benefit,Analysis, Cost Benefit,Analysis, Cost-Benefit,Analysis, Cost-Utility,Analysis, Marginal,Benefit and Cost,Cost Benefit Analyses,Cost Benefit Data,Cost Utility Analysis,Cost-Benefit Analyses,Cost-Utility Analyses,Data, Cost-Benefit,Economic Evaluations,Evaluation, Economic,Marginal Analyses
D005260	Female		Females