A dynamic risk model for inpatient falls. 2018

Yoonyoung Choi, and Benjamin Staley, and Carl Henriksen, and Dandan Xu, and Gloria Lipori, and Babette Brumback, and Almut G Winterstein
Center for Observational and Real-World Evidence (CORE), Merck & Co, Inc., North Wales, PA.

OBJECTIVE Construction and validation of a fall risk prediction model specific to inpatients receiving fall risk-increasing drugs (FRIDs) are described. METHODS In a retrospective cohort study of 75,036 admissions to 2 hospitals over a designated 22-month period that involved FRID exposure during the first 5 hospital days, factors influencing fall risk were investigated via logistic regression. The resultant risk prediction model was internally validated and its performance compared with that of a model based on Morse Fall Scale (MFS) scores. RESULTS A total of 220,904 patient-days of FRID exposure were evaluated. The three most commonly administered FRIDs were oxycodone (given on 79,697 patient-days, 36.08%), morphine (52,427, 23.73%) and hydromorphone (42,063, 19.04%). Within the 90th percentile of modeled risk scores, 144 of the 466 documented falls (30.9%) were captured by the developed risk prediction model (unbiased C statistic, 0.69), as compared with 94 falls (20.2%) captured using the MFS model (unbiased C statistic, 0.62). Strong predictors of inpatient falls included a history of falling (odds ratio [OR], 1.99; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.42-2.80); overestimation of ability to ambulate (OR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.12-2.09); and "comorbidity predisposition," a composite measure encompassing a history of falling and 11 past diagnoses (OR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.30-1.97). CONCLUSIONS The proposed risk model for inpatient falls achieved superior predictive performance when compared with the MFS model. All risk factors were operationalized from discrete electronic health record fields, allowing full automation of real-time identification of high-risk patients.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007297 Inpatients Persons admitted to health facilities which provide board and room, for the purpose of observation, care, diagnosis or treatment. Inpatient
D008297 Male Males
D008875 Middle Aged An adult aged 45 - 64 years. Middle Age
D005260 Female Females
D005544 Forecasting The prediction or projection of the nature of future problems or existing conditions based upon the extrapolation or interpretation of existing scientific data or by the application of scientific methodology. Futurology,Projections and Predictions,Future,Predictions and Projections
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000058 Accidental Falls Falls due to slipping or tripping which may result in injury. Falls, Accidental,Falling,Falls,Slip and Fall,Accidental Fall,Fall and Slip,Fall, Accidental
D000328 Adult A person having attained full growth or maturity. Adults are of 19 through 44 years of age. For a person between 19 and 24 years of age, YOUNG ADULT is available. Adults
D000368 Aged A person 65 years of age or older. For a person older than 79 years, AGED, 80 AND OVER is available. Elderly
D000369 Aged, 80 and over Persons 80 years of age and older. Oldest Old

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