Optimization of Prehospital Triage of Patients With Suspected Ischemic Stroke. 2018

Ayman Ali, and Kori S Zachrison, and Patrick C Eschenfeldt, and Lee H Schwamm, and Chin Hur
From the Institute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston (A.A., P.C.E., C.H.).

Background and Purpose- Prehospital routing algorithms for patients with suspected stroke because of large vessel occlusions should account for likelihood of benefit from endovascular therapy (EVT), risk of alteplase delays, and transport times. We built a mathematical model to give a real-time, location-based optimal emergency medical service routing location based on local resources, transport times, and patient characteristics. Methods- Using location, onset time, age, sex, and prehospital stroke severity, we calculated odds of a favorable outcome for a patient with suspected large vessel occlusions under 2 scenarios: direct to EVT-capable hospital versus transport to the nearest alteplase-capable hospital with transfer to EVT-capable hospital if appropriate. We project lifetime outcomes incorporating disability, quality of life utility, and cost. Multiple parameter sets of center-specific times (eg, door to alteplase) were randomly selected within a clinically plausible range to account for the model sensitivity to these estimates; for each iteration, the optimal strategy was defined as the most cost-effective outcome (threshold, $100 000 per quality-adjusted life-years gained). After 1000 simulations, the most frequently occurring optimal strategy was the final recommendation, with its strength measured as the proportion of runs for which it was optimal. Results- Routing recommendations were highly sensitive to small changes in model input parameters. Under many scenarios, the recommendations for direct transfer to the EVT site increased with increasing stroke severity and geographic proximity but did not vary substantially with respect to sex, age, or onset time. Conclusions- We present a mathematical decision model that determines ideal prehospital routing recommendations for patients with suspected stroke because of large vessel occlusions, with consideration of patient characteristics and location at onset. This model may be further refined by incorporating real-time data on traffic patterns and actual EVT and alteplase timeliness performance. Further studies are needed to verify model predictions.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007511 Ischemia A hypoperfusion of the BLOOD through an organ or tissue caused by a PATHOLOGIC CONSTRICTION or obstruction of its BLOOD VESSELS, or an absence of BLOOD CIRCULATION. Ischemias
D008297 Male Males
D011788 Quality of Life A generic concept reflecting concern with the modification and enhancement of life attributes, e.g., physical, political, moral, social environment as well as health and disease. HRQOL,Health-Related Quality Of Life,Life Quality,Health Related Quality Of Life
D002545 Brain Ischemia Localized reduction of blood flow to brain tissue due to arterial obstruction or systemic hypoperfusion. This frequently occurs in conjunction with brain hypoxia (HYPOXIA, BRAIN). Prolonged ischemia is associated with BRAIN INFARCTION. Cerebral Ischemia,Ischemic Encephalopathy,Encephalopathy, Ischemic,Ischemia, Cerebral,Brain Ischemias,Cerebral Ischemias,Ischemia, Brain,Ischemias, Cerebral,Ischemic Encephalopathies
D004632 Emergency Medical Services Services specifically designed, staffed, and equipped for the emergency care of patients. Emergency Care,Emergency Health Services,Emergicenters,Prehospital Emergency Care,Emergency Care, Prehospital,Emergency Services, Medical,Medical Services, Emergency,Services, Emergency Medical,Emergency Health Service,Emergency Medical Service,Emergency Service, Medical,Emergicenter,Health Service, Emergency,Health Services, Emergency,Medical Emergency Service,Medical Emergency Services,Medical Service, Emergency,Service, Emergency Health,Service, Emergency Medical,Service, Medical Emergency,Services, Emergency Health,Services, Medical Emergency
D005260 Female Females
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D012720 Severity of Illness Index Levels within a diagnostic group which are established by various measurement criteria applied to the seriousness of a patient's disorder. Illness Index Severities,Illness Index Severity
D014218 Triage The sorting out and classification of patients or casualties to determine priority of need and proper place of treatment. Triages
D015912 Thrombolytic Therapy Use of infusions of FIBRINOLYTIC AGENTS to destroy or dissolve thrombi in blood vessels or bypass grafts. Fibrinolytic Therapy,Thrombolysis, Therapeutic,Therapeutic Thrombolysis,Therapy, Fibrinolytic,Therapy, Thrombolytic,Fibrinolytic Therapies,Therapeutic Thrombolyses,Therapies, Fibrinolytic,Therapies, Thrombolytic,Thrombolyses, Therapeutic,Thrombolytic Therapies

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