Pre-pregnancy or first-trimester risk scoring to identify women at high risk of preterm birth. 2018

Rebecca J Baer, and Monica R McLemore, and Nancy Adler, and Scott P Oltman, and Brittany D Chambers, and Miriam Kuppermann, and Matthew S Pantell, and Elizabeth E Rogers, and Kelli K Ryckman, and Marina Sirota, and Larry Rand, and Laura L Jelliffe-Pawlowski
Department of Pediatrics, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States; California Preterm Birth Initiative, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, United States. Electronic address: rjbaer@ucsd.edu.

Objective To develop a pre-pregnancy or first-trimester risk score to identify women at high risk of preterm birth. Study design In this retrospective cohort analysis, the sample was drawn from California singleton livebirths from 2007 to 2012 with linked birth certificate and hospital discharge records. The dataset was divided into a training (2/3 of sample) and a testing (1/3 of sample) set for discovery and validation. Predictive models for preterm birth using pre-pregnancy or first-trimester maternal factors were developed using backward stepwise logistic regression on a training dataset. A risk score for preterm birth was created for each pregnancy using beta-coefficients for each maternal factor remaining in the final multivariable model. Risk score utility was replicated in a testing dataset and by race/ethnicity and payer for prenatal care. Results The sample included 2,339,696 pregnancies divided into training and testing datasets. Twenty-three maternal risk factors were identified including several that were associated with a two or more increased odds of preterm birth (preexisting diabetes, preexisting hypertension, sickle cell anemia, and previous preterm birth). Approximately 40% of women with a risk score ≥ 3.0 in the training and testing samples delivered preterm (40.6% and 40.8%, respectively) compared to 3.1-3.3% of women with a risk score of 0.0 [odds ratio (OR) 13.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 10.7-15.8, training; OR 12.2, 95% CI 9.4-15.9, testing). Additionally, over 18% of women with a risk score ≥ 3.0 had an adverse outcome other than preterm birth. Conclusion Maternal factors that are identifiable prior to pregnancy or during the first-trimester can be used create a cumulative risk score to identify women at the lowest and highest risk for preterm birth regardless of race/ethnicity or socioeconomic status. Further, we found that this cumulative risk score could also identify women at risk for other adverse outcomes who did not have a preterm birth. The risk score is not an effective screening test, but does identify women at very high risk of a preterm birth.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007231 Infant, Newborn An infant during the first 28 days after birth. Neonate,Newborns,Infants, Newborn,Neonates,Newborn,Newborn Infant,Newborn Infants
D008423 Maternal Age The age of the mother in PREGNANCY. Age, Maternal,Ages, Maternal,Maternal Ages
D011247 Pregnancy The status during which female mammals carry their developing young (EMBRYOS or FETUSES) in utero before birth, beginning from FERTILIZATION to BIRTH. Gestation,Pregnancies
D011256 Pregnancy Outcome Results of conception and ensuing pregnancy, including LIVE BIRTH; STILLBIRTH; or SPONTANEOUS ABORTION. The outcome may follow natural or artificial insemination or any of the various ASSISTED REPRODUCTIVE TECHNIQUES, such as EMBRYO TRANSFER or FERTILIZATION IN VITRO. Outcome, Pregnancy,Outcomes, Pregnancy,Pregnancy Outcomes
D011261 Pregnancy Trimester, First The beginning third of a human PREGNANCY, from the first day of the last normal menstrual period (MENSTRUATION) through the completion of 14 weeks (98 days) of gestation. Early Placental Phase,Pregnancy, First Trimester,Trimester, First,Early Placental Phases,First Pregnancy Trimester,First Pregnancy Trimesters,First Trimester,First Trimester Pregnancies,First Trimester Pregnancy,First Trimesters,Phase, Early Placental,Phases, Early Placental,Placental Phase, Early,Placental Phases, Early,Pregnancies, First Trimester,Pregnancy Trimesters, First,Trimesters, First
D011295 Prenatal Care Care provided the pregnant woman in order to prevent complications, and decrease the incidence of maternal and prenatal mortality. Antenatal Care,Care, Antenatal,Care, Prenatal
D002140 California State bounded on the east by Nevada and Arizona, on the south by Mexico and the Pacific Ocean on the south and west, and on the north by Oregon.
D005260 Female Females
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000293 Adolescent A person 13 to 18 years of age. Adolescence,Youth,Adolescents,Adolescents, Female,Adolescents, Male,Teenagers,Teens,Adolescent, Female,Adolescent, Male,Female Adolescent,Female Adolescents,Male Adolescent,Male Adolescents,Teen,Teenager,Youths

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