Bayesian sample size determination for phase IIA clinical trials using historical data and semi-parametric prior's elicitation. 2019

Paola Berchialla, and Sarah Zohar, and Ileana Baldi
Department of Clinical and Biological Sciences, University of Torino, Torino, Italy.

The Simon's two-stage design is the most commonly applied among multi-stage designs in phase IIA clinical trials. It combines the sample sizes at the two stages in order to minimize either the expected or the maximum sample size. When the uncertainty about pre-trial beliefs on the expected or desired response rate is high, a Bayesian alternative should be considered since it allows to deal with the entire distribution of the parameter of interest in a more natural way. In this setting, a crucial issue is how to construct a distribution from the available summaries to use as a clinical prior in a Bayesian design. In this work, we explore the Bayesian counterparts of the Simon's two-stage design based on the predictive version of the single threshold design. This design requires specifying two prior distributions: the analysis prior, which is used to compute the posterior probabilities, and the design prior, which is employed to obtain the prior predictive distribution. While the usual approach is to build beta priors for carrying out a conjugate analysis, we derived both the analysis and the design distributions through linear combinations of B-splines. The motivating example is the planning of the phase IIA two-stage trial on anti-HER2 DNA vaccine in breast cancer, where initial beliefs formed from elicited experts' opinions and historical data showed a high level of uncertainty. In a sample size determination problem, the impact of different priors is evaluated.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D011336 Probability The study of chance processes or the relative frequency characterizing a chance process. Probabilities
D012107 Research Design A plan for collecting and utilizing data so that desired information can be obtained with sufficient precision or so that an hypothesis can be tested properly. Experimental Design,Data Adjustment,Data Reporting,Design, Experimental,Designs, Experimental,Error Sources,Experimental Designs,Matched Groups,Methodology, Research,Problem Formulation,Research Methodology,Research Proposal,Research Strategy,Research Technics,Research Techniques,Scoring Methods,Adjustment, Data,Adjustments, Data,Data Adjustments,Design, Research,Designs, Research,Error Source,Formulation, Problem,Formulations, Problem,Group, Matched,Groups, Matched,Matched Group,Method, Scoring,Methods, Scoring,Problem Formulations,Proposal, Research,Proposals, Research,Reporting, Data,Research Designs,Research Proposals,Research Strategies,Research Technic,Research Technique,Scoring Method,Source, Error,Sources, Error,Strategies, Research,Strategy, Research,Technic, Research,Technics, Research,Technique, Research,Techniques, Research
D001943 Breast Neoplasms Tumors or cancer of the human BREAST. Breast Cancer,Breast Tumors,Cancer of Breast,Breast Carcinoma,Cancer of the Breast,Human Mammary Carcinoma,Malignant Neoplasm of Breast,Malignant Tumor of Breast,Mammary Cancer,Mammary Carcinoma, Human,Mammary Neoplasm, Human,Mammary Neoplasms, Human,Neoplasms, Breast,Tumors, Breast,Breast Carcinomas,Breast Malignant Neoplasm,Breast Malignant Neoplasms,Breast Malignant Tumor,Breast Malignant Tumors,Breast Neoplasm,Breast Tumor,Cancer, Breast,Cancer, Mammary,Cancers, Mammary,Carcinoma, Breast,Carcinoma, Human Mammary,Carcinomas, Breast,Carcinomas, Human Mammary,Human Mammary Carcinomas,Human Mammary Neoplasm,Human Mammary Neoplasms,Mammary Cancers,Mammary Carcinomas, Human,Neoplasm, Breast,Neoplasm, Human Mammary,Neoplasms, Human Mammary,Tumor, Breast
D005260 Female Females
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D001499 Bayes Theorem A theorem in probability theory named for Thomas Bayes (1702-1761). In epidemiology, it is used to obtain the probability of disease in a group of people with some characteristic on the basis of the overall rate of that disease and of the likelihood of that characteristic in healthy and diseased individuals. The most familiar application is in clinical decision analysis where it is used for estimating the probability of a particular diagnosis given the appearance of some symptoms or test result. Bayesian Analysis,Bayesian Estimation,Bayesian Forecast,Bayesian Method,Bayesian Prediction,Analysis, Bayesian,Bayesian Approach,Approach, Bayesian,Approachs, Bayesian,Bayesian Approachs,Estimation, Bayesian,Forecast, Bayesian,Method, Bayesian,Prediction, Bayesian,Theorem, Bayes
D017322 Clinical Trials, Phase II as Topic Works about studies that are usually controlled to assess the effectiveness and dosage (if appropriate) of diagnostic, therapeutic, or prophylactic drugs, devices, or techniques. These studies are performed on several hundred volunteers, including a limited number of patients with the target disease or disorder, and last about two years. This concept includes phase II studies conducted in both the U.S. and in other countries. Drug Evaluation, FDA Phase 2 as Topic,Drug Evaluation, FDA Phase II as Topic,Evaluation Studies, FDA Phase 2 as Topic,Evaluation Studies, FDA Phase II as Topic
D018401 Sample Size The number of units (persons, animals, patients, specified circumstances, etc.) in a population to be studied. The sample size should be big enough to have a high likelihood of detecting a true difference between two groups. (From Wassertheil-Smoller, Biostatistics and Epidemiology, 1990, p95) Sample Sizes,Size, Sample,Sizes, Sample
D018719 Receptor, ErbB-2 A cell surface protein-tyrosine kinase receptor that is overexpressed in a variety of ADENOCARCINOMAS. It has extensive homology to and heterodimerizes with the EGF RECEPTOR, the ERBB-3 RECEPTOR, and the ERBB-4 RECEPTOR. Activation of the erbB-2 receptor occurs through heterodimer formation with a ligand-bound erbB receptor family member. HER-2 Proto-Oncogene Protein,Proto-Oncogene Protein HER-2,Proto-Oncogene Protein p185(neu),c-erbB-2 Protein,erbB-2 Proto-Oncogene Protein,erbB-2 Receptor Protein-Tyrosine Kinase,neu Proto-Oncogene Protein,Antigens, CD340,CD340 Antigen,Erb-b2 Receptor Tyrosine Kinases,Metastatic Lymph Node Gene 19 Protein,Neu Receptor,Oncogene Protein HER-2,Proto-Oncogene Proteins c-erbB-2,Proto-oncogene Protein Neu,Receptor, Neu,Receptors, erbB-2,Tyrosine Kinase-type Cell Surface Receptor HER2,p185(c-neu),p185erbB2 Protein,CD340 Antigens,Erb b2 Receptor Tyrosine Kinases,ErbB-2 Receptor,HER 2 Proto Oncogene Protein,Oncogene Protein HER 2,Proto Oncogene Protein HER 2,Proto Oncogene Proteins c erbB 2,Proto-Oncogene Protein, HER-2,Proto-Oncogene Protein, erbB-2,Proto-Oncogene Protein, neu,Tyrosine Kinase type Cell Surface Receptor HER2,c erbB 2 Protein,erbB 2 Proto Oncogene Protein,erbB 2 Receptor Protein Tyrosine Kinase,erbB-2 Receptors,neu Proto Oncogene Protein
D019444 Vaccines, DNA Recombinant DNA vectors encoding antigens administered for the prevention or treatment of disease. The host cells take up the DNA, express the antigen, and present it to the immune system in a manner similar to that which would occur during natural infection. This induces humoral and cellular immune responses against the encoded antigens. The vector is called naked DNA because there is no need for complex formulations or delivery agents; the plasmid is injected in saline or other buffers. DNA Vaccine,DNA Vaccines,Naked DNA Vaccine,Naked DNA Vaccines,Recombinant DNA Vaccine,Recombinant DNA Vaccines,Vaccines, Recombinant DNA,DNA Vaccine, Naked,DNA Vaccine, Recombinant,DNA Vaccines, Naked,DNA Vaccines, Recombinant,Vaccine, DNA,Vaccine, Naked DNA,Vaccine, Recombinant DNA,Vaccines, Naked DNA

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