BACKGROUND Immunohistochemical staining for C4d in peritubular capillaries has been part of antibody-mediated rejection (AbMR) definition in the Banff Classification for Allograft Pathology since 2003. However, it has limited sensitivity and specificity, therefore the clinical significance of C4d-positive biopsies without evidence of rejection (C4d+ WER) is unknown. We investigated the transcript levels of genes associated with AbMR in C4d+ WER biopsies from both ABO-compatible and incompatible renal transplant patients. METHODS RNA was extracted from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded renal transplant biopsies (n = 125) and gene expression analysis of 35 AbMR-associated transcripts carried out using the NanoString nCounter system. RESULTS AbMR-associated transcripts were significantly increased in samples with AbMR or suspicious AbMR. A subgroup of 17 of 35 transcripts that best distinguished AbMR from C4d-negative biopsies without evidence of rejection was used to study C4d+ WER samples. There was no differential expression between C4d-negative and C4d+ WER from both ABO-incompatible and -compatible transplants. The geometric mean of 17 differentially expressed genes was used to assign the C4d+ WER biopsies a high- or low-AbMR transcript score. Follow-up biopsies showed AbMR within 1 year of initial biopsy in 5 of 7 high-AbMR transcript patients but only 2 of 46 low-AbMR transcript patients. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, elevated transcript levels in a C4d+ WER biopsy were associated with increased odds for biopsy-proven AbMR on follow-up (P = 0.032, odds ratio 16.318), whereas factors including donor-specific antibody (DSA) status and time since transplantation were not. CONCLUSIONS Gene expression analysis in C4d+ WER samples has the potential to identify patients at higher risk of developing AbMR.