Dynamic-DeepHit: A Deep Learning Approach for Dynamic Survival Analysis With Competing Risks Based on Longitudinal Data. 2020

Changhee Lee, and Jinsung Yoon, and Mihaela van der Schaar

Currently available risk prediction methods are limited in their ability to deal with complex, heterogeneous, and longitudinal data such as that available in primary care records, or in their ability to deal with multiple competing risks. This paper develops a novel deep learning approach that is able to successfully address current limitations of standard statistical approaches such as landmarking and joint modeling. Our approach, which we call Dynamic-DeepHit, flexibly incorporates the available longitudinal data comprising various repeated measurements (rather than only the last available measurements) in order to issue dynamically updated survival predictions for one or multiple competing risk(s). Dynamic-DeepHit learns the time-to-event distributions without the need to make any assumptions about the underlying stochastic models for the longitudinal and the time-to-event processes. Thus, unlike existing works in statistics, our method is able to learn data-driven associations between the longitudinal data and the various associated risks without underlying model specifications. We demonstrate the power of our approach by applying it to a real-world longitudinal dataset from the U.K. Cystic Fibrosis Registry, which includes a heterogeneous cohort of 5883 adult patients with annual follow-ups between 2009 to 2015. The results show that Dynamic-DeepHit provides a drastic improvement in discriminating individual risks of different forms of failures due to cystic fibrosis. Furthermore, our analysis utilizes post-processing statistics that provide clinical insight by measuring the influence of each covariate on risk predictions and the temporal importance of longitudinal measurements, thereby enabling us to identify covariates that are influential for different competing risks.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008137 Longitudinal Studies Studies in which variables relating to an individual or group of individuals are assessed over a period of time. Bogalusa Heart Study,California Teachers Study,Framingham Heart Study,Jackson Heart Study,Longitudinal Survey,Tuskegee Syphilis Study,Bogalusa Heart Studies,California Teachers Studies,Framingham Heart Studies,Heart Studies, Bogalusa,Heart Studies, Framingham,Heart Studies, Jackson,Heart Study, Bogalusa,Heart Study, Framingham,Heart Study, Jackson,Jackson Heart Studies,Longitudinal Study,Longitudinal Surveys,Studies, Bogalusa Heart,Studies, California Teachers,Studies, Jackson Heart,Studies, Longitudinal,Study, Bogalusa Heart,Study, California Teachers,Study, Longitudinal,Survey, Longitudinal,Surveys, Longitudinal,Syphilis Studies, Tuskegee,Syphilis Study, Tuskegee,Teachers Studies, California,Teachers Study, California,Tuskegee Syphilis Studies
D003550 Cystic Fibrosis An autosomal recessive genetic disease of the EXOCRINE GLANDS. It is caused by mutations in the gene encoding the CYSTIC FIBROSIS TRANSMEMBRANE CONDUCTANCE REGULATOR expressed in several organs including the LUNG, the PANCREAS, the BILIARY SYSTEM, and the SWEAT GLANDS. Cystic fibrosis is characterized by epithelial secretory dysfunction associated with ductal obstruction resulting in AIRWAY OBSTRUCTION; chronic RESPIRATORY INFECTIONS; PANCREATIC INSUFFICIENCY; maldigestion; salt depletion; and HEAT PROSTRATION. Mucoviscidosis,Cystic Fibrosis of Pancreas,Fibrocystic Disease of Pancreas,Pancreatic Cystic Fibrosis,Pulmonary Cystic Fibrosis,Cystic Fibrosis, Pancreatic,Cystic Fibrosis, Pulmonary,Fibrosis, Cystic,Pancreas Fibrocystic Disease,Pancreas Fibrocystic Diseases
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000077321 Deep Learning Supervised or unsupervised machine learning methods that use multiple layers of data representations generated by nonlinear transformations, instead of individual task-specific ALGORITHMS, to build and train neural network models. Hierarchical Learning,Learning, Deep,Learning, Hierarchical
D016019 Survival Analysis A class of statistical procedures for estimating the survival function (function of time, starting with a population 100% well at a given time and providing the percentage of the population still well at later times). The survival analysis is then used for making inferences about the effects of treatments, prognostic factors, exposures, and other covariates on the function. Analysis, Survival,Analyses, Survival,Survival Analyses
D016208 Databases, Factual Extensive collections, reputedly complete, of facts and data garnered from material of a specialized subject area and made available for analysis and application. The collection can be automated by various contemporary methods for retrieval. The concept should be differentiated from DATABASES, BIBLIOGRAPHIC which is restricted to collections of bibliographic references. Databanks, Factual,Data Banks, Factual,Data Bases, Factual,Data Bank, Factual,Data Base, Factual,Databank, Factual,Database, Factual,Factual Data Bank,Factual Data Banks,Factual Data Base,Factual Data Bases,Factual Databank,Factual Databanks,Factual Database,Factual Databases

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