Development of a novel linear model for predicting recipient's post-transplant serum creatinine level after living donor kidney transplantation: A multicenter cross-validation study. 2019

Jinsoo Rhu, and Sung Joo Kim, and Kyo Won Lee, and Jae Berm Park, and Kyunga Kim, and Heejin Yoo, and Hyejin Mo, and Chanjoong Choi, and Sang-Il Min, and Jongwon Ha
Department of Surgery, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.

This study was designed to develop and cross-validate a statistical model for predicting post-transplant serum creatinine of living donor kidney transplantation. Adult recipients of living donor kidney transplantation from August 2012 to October 2017 at Samsung Medical Center (SMC) and Seoul National University Hospital (SNUH) with normal post-transplant protocol biopsy were included for modelling. Demographic data including recipient and donor's sex, age, body measurements and comorbidities, pre-transplant donor serum creatinine, graft weight, post-transplant recipient serum creatinine and the result of protocol biopsy were collected. Multivariate linear regression analysis was performed for developing the model based on SMC cohort. Internal validation was performed using leave-one-out cross-validation with the same cohort. External validation using leave-one-out cross-validation was performed based on the cohort of SNUH. A total of 238 and 191 recipients were included from SMC and SNUH, respectively. The prediction model included recipient's sex (β = 0.228, P<0.001), height (β = 0.007, P<0.001), and weight (β = 0.006, P<0.001), donor's age (β = 0.004, P<0.001), height (β = -0.007, P<0.001), pre-transplant serum Cr (β = 0.377, P<0.001) and graft weight (β = -0.002, P<0.001). The model showed R2 of 0.708, root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) of 0.161 and intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) of 0.83. The internal validation showed predicted ICC of 0.82, RMSEP of 0.161, and accuracy was calculated 0.895. The external validation showed predicted ICC of 0.78, RMSEP of 0.170, and accuracy was calculated 0.876. The linear prediction model based on body measurement and donor serum creatinine and graft weight showed a high accuracy in cross-validation.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008297 Male Males
D008875 Middle Aged An adult aged 45 - 64 years. Middle Age
D003404 Creatinine Creatinine Sulfate Salt,Krebiozen,Salt, Creatinine Sulfate,Sulfate Salt, Creatinine
D005260 Female Females
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D015203 Reproducibility of Results The statistical reproducibility of measurements (often in a clinical context), including the testing of instrumentation or techniques to obtain reproducible results. The concept includes reproducibility of physiological measurements, which may be used to develop rules to assess probability or prognosis, or response to a stimulus; reproducibility of occurrence of a condition; and reproducibility of experimental results. Reliability and Validity,Reliability of Result,Reproducibility Of Result,Reproducibility of Finding,Validity of Result,Validity of Results,Face Validity,Reliability (Epidemiology),Reliability of Results,Reproducibility of Findings,Test-Retest Reliability,Validity (Epidemiology),Finding Reproducibilities,Finding Reproducibility,Of Result, Reproducibility,Of Results, Reproducibility,Reliabilities, Test-Retest,Reliability, Test-Retest,Result Reliabilities,Result Reliability,Result Validities,Result Validity,Result, Reproducibility Of,Results, Reproducibility Of,Test Retest Reliability,Validity and Reliability,Validity, Face
D015999 Multivariate Analysis A set of techniques used when variation in several variables are studied simultaneously. In statistics, multivariate analysis is interpreted as any analytic method that allows simultaneous study of two or more dependent variables. Analysis, Multivariate,Multivariate Analyses
D016014 Linear Models Statistical models in which the value of a parameter for a given value of a factor is assumed to be equal to a + bx, where a and b are constants. The models predict a linear regression. Linear Regression,Log-Linear Models,Models, Linear,Linear Model,Linear Regressions,Log Linear Models,Log-Linear Model,Model, Linear,Model, Log-Linear,Models, Log-Linear,Regression, Linear,Regressions, Linear
D016030 Kidney Transplantation The transference of a kidney from one human or animal to another. Grafting, Kidney,Renal Transplantation,Transplantation, Kidney,Transplantation, Renal,Kidney Grafting,Kidney Transplantations,Renal Transplantations,Transplantations, Kidney,Transplantations, Renal
D019520 Living Donors Non-cadaveric providers of organs for transplant to related or non-related recipients. Donors, Living,Donor, Living,Living Donor

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