Metabolomic Pattern Predicts Incident Coronary Heart Disease. 2019

Zhe Wang, and Cong Zhu, and Vijay Nambi, and Alanna C Morrison, and Aaron R Folsom, and Christie M Ballantyne, and Eric Boerwinkle, and Bing Yu
From the Human Genetics Center, University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston (Z.W., C.Z., A.C.M., E.B., B.Y.).

Objective- Alterations in the serum metabolome may be detectable in at-risk individuals before the onset of coronary heart disease (CHD). Identifying metabolomic signatures associated with CHD may provide insight into disease pathophysiology and prevention. Approach and Results- Metabolomic profiling (chromatography-mass spectrometry) was performed in 2232 African Americans and 1366 European Americans from the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities). We applied Cox regression with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator to select metabolites associated with incident CHD. A metabolite risk score was constructed to evaluate whether the metabolite risk score predicted CHD risk beyond traditional risk factors. After 30 years of follow-up, we observed 633 incident CHD cases. Thirty-two metabolites were selected by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator to be associated with CHD, and 19 of the 32 showed significant individual associations with CHD, including a sugar substitute, erythritol. Theophylline (hazard ratio [95% CI] =1.16 [1.09-1.25]) and gamma-linolenic acid (hazard ratio [95% CI] =0.89 [0.81-0.97]) showed the greatest positive and negative associations with CHD, respectively. A 1 SD greater standardized metabolite risk score was associated with a 1.37-fold higher risk of CHD (hazard ratio [95% CI] =1.37 [1.27-1.47]). Adding the metabolite risk score to the traditional risk factors significantly improved model predictive performance (30-year risk prediction: Δ C statistics [95% CI] =0.016 [0.008-0.024], continuous net reclassification index [95% CI] =0.522 [0.480-0.556], integrated discrimination index [95% CI] =0.038 [0.019-0.065]). Conclusions- We identified 19 metabolites from known and novel metabolic pathways that collectively improved CHD risk prediction. Visual Overview- An online visual overview is available for this article.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008297 Male Males
D008875 Middle Aged An adult aged 45 - 64 years. Middle Age
D011446 Prospective Studies Observation of a population for a sufficient number of persons over a sufficient number of years to generate incidence or mortality rates subsequent to the selection of the study group. Prospective Study,Studies, Prospective,Study, Prospective
D003327 Coronary Disease An imbalance between myocardial functional requirements and the capacity of the CORONARY VESSELS to supply sufficient blood flow. It is a form of MYOCARDIAL ISCHEMIA (insufficient blood supply to the heart muscle) caused by a decreased capacity of the coronary vessels. Coronary Heart Disease,Coronary Diseases,Coronary Heart Diseases,Disease, Coronary,Disease, Coronary Heart,Diseases, Coronary,Diseases, Coronary Heart,Heart Disease, Coronary,Heart Diseases, Coronary
D005260 Female Females
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D012307 Risk Factors An aspect of personal behavior or lifestyle, environmental exposure, inborn or inherited characteristic, which, based on epidemiological evidence, is known to be associated with a health-related condition considered important to prevent. Health Correlates,Risk Factor Scores,Risk Scores,Social Risk Factors,Population at Risk,Populations at Risk,Correlates, Health,Factor, Risk,Factor, Social Risk,Factors, Social Risk,Risk Factor,Risk Factor Score,Risk Factor, Social,Risk Factors, Social,Risk Score,Score, Risk,Score, Risk Factor,Social Risk Factor
D016016 Proportional Hazards Models Statistical models used in survival analysis that assert that the effect of the study factors on the hazard rate in the study population is multiplicative and does not change over time. Cox Model,Cox Proportional Hazards Model,Hazard Model,Hazards Model,Hazards Models,Models, Proportional Hazards,Proportional Hazard Model,Proportional Hazards Model,Cox Models,Cox Proportional Hazards Models,Hazard Models,Proportional Hazard Models,Hazard Model, Proportional,Hazard Models, Proportional,Hazards Model, Proportional,Hazards Models, Proportional,Model, Cox,Model, Hazard,Model, Hazards,Model, Proportional Hazard,Model, Proportional Hazards,Models, Cox,Models, Hazard,Models, Hazards,Models, Proportional Hazard
D050197 Atherosclerosis A thickening and loss of elasticity of the walls of ARTERIES that occurs with formation of ATHEROSCLEROTIC PLAQUES within the ARTERIAL INTIMA. Atherogenesis,Atherogeneses,Atheroscleroses
D055432 Metabolomics The systematic identification and quantitation of all the metabolic products of a cell, tissue, organ, or organism under varying conditions. The METABOLOME of a cell or organism is a dynamic collection of metabolites which represent its net response to current conditions. Metabonomics,Metabolomic,Metabonomic

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