The incidence of vertebral fractures (VF) by vertebral fracture assessment (VFA) was 6.6% in postmenopausal women (FRODOS cohort) after 4 years of follow-up, increasing with prevalent VF and minor vertebral deformities, age, lower bone mass, glucocorticoid use, and rheumatoid arthritis. This study supports the usefulness of VFA to identify VF. OBJECTIVE Vertebral fracture assessment (VFA) is increasingly used to identify spine fractures, but few cohort studies have used this method in prevalence and incidence assessment. We previously reported the prevalence of vertebral fractures (VF) and minor vertebral deformities (MVD) by morphometric VFA in a population-based cohort of postmenopausal women (FRODOS study). Therefore, the aim of this study was to analyze the incidence of VF, the associated risk factors, and particularly the role of MVD in this cohort of subjects. METHODS We performed a longitudinal analysis of 2510 women aged 59-70 years participating in the FRODOS prevalence study (2006-2009) with evaluable VFA 4 years later. VFA at baseline and in the present study was assessed by quantitative vertebral morphometry and by visual semiquantitative measurement. The multivariate Poisson regression model was performed, and relative risks with confidence interval of 95% were calculated for the incidence of VF. Bone mineral density (BMD) and an osteoporosis questionnaire were collected. RESULTS Overall, the incidence of VF was 6.6%, increasing with prevalent VF (24.5%) and in women with prevalent MVD (17.7%). Age and low BMD were also associated risk factors as were the presence of rheumatoid arthritis and exposure to glucocorticoids and bisphosphonates. CONCLUSIONS The presence of prevalent VF assessed by VFA is associated with further incident spinal fractures in postmenopausal women. In addition, having MVD confers an increased risk of new VF.