Prediction model and web-based risk calculator for postoperative ileus after loop ileostomy closure. 2019

R Garfinkle, and K B Filion, and S Bhatnagar, and G Sigler, and A Banks, and F Letarte, and S Liberman, and C J Brown, and M Boutros
Division of Colon and Rectal Surgery, Jewish General Hospital, Montreal, Quebec, Canada.

Postoperative ileus (POI) is a significant complication after loop ileostomy closure given both its frequency and impact on the patient. The purpose of this study was to develop and externally validate a prediction model for POI after loop ileostomy closure. The model was developed and validated according to the TRIPOD checklist for prediction model development and validation. The development cohort included consecutive patients who underwent loop ileostomy closure in two teaching hospitals in Montreal, Canada. Candidate variables considered for inclusion in the model were chosen a priori based on subject knowledge. The final prediction model, which modelled the 30-day cumulative incidence of POI using logistic regression, was selected using the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) criterion. Model calibration was assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. The model was then validated externally in an independent cohort of similar patients from the University of British Columbia. The development cohort included 531 patients, in whom the incidence of POI was 16·8 per cent. The final model included five variables: age, ASA fitness grade, underlying pathology/treatment, interval between ileostomy creation and closure, and duration of surgery for ileostomy closure (AUC 0·68, 95 per cent c.i. 0·61 to 0·74). The model demonstrated good calibration (P = 0·142). The validation cohort consisted of 216 patients, and the incidence of POI was 15·7 per cent. On external validation, the model maintained good discrimination (AUC 0·72, 0·63 to 0·81) and calibration (P = 0·538). A prediction model was developed for POI after loop ileostomy closure and included five variables. The model maintained good performance on external validation.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007081 Ileostomy Surgical creation of an external opening into the ILEUM for fecal diversion or drainage. This replacement for the RECTUM is usually created in patients with severe INFLAMMATORY BOWEL DISEASES. Loop (continent) or tube (incontinent) procedures are most often employed. Loop Ileostomy,Tube Ileostomy,Continent Ileostomy,Incontinent Ileostomy,Continent Ileostomies,Ileostomies,Ileostomies, Continent,Ileostomies, Incontinent,Ileostomies, Loop,Ileostomies, Tube,Ileostomy, Continent,Ileostomy, Incontinent,Ileostomy, Loop,Ileostomy, Tube,Incontinent Ileostomies,Loop Ileostomies,Tube Ileostomies
D008297 Male Males
D008875 Middle Aged An adult aged 45 - 64 years. Middle Age
D011183 Postoperative Complications Pathologic processes that affect patients after a surgical procedure. They may or may not be related to the disease for which the surgery was done, and they may or may not be direct results of the surgery. Complication, Postoperative,Complications, Postoperative,Postoperative Complication
D011336 Probability The study of chance processes or the relative frequency characterizing a chance process. Probabilities
D005260 Female Females
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000066491 Clinical Decision-Making Process of formulating a diagnosis based on medical history and physical or mental examinations, and/or choosing an appropriate intervention. Medical Decision-Making,Clinical Decision Making,Decision-Making, Clinical,Decision-Making, Medical,Medical Decision Making
D000368 Aged A person 65 years of age or older. For a person older than 79 years, AGED, 80 AND OVER is available. Elderly
D012307 Risk Factors An aspect of personal behavior or lifestyle, environmental exposure, inborn or inherited characteristic, which, based on epidemiological evidence, is known to be associated with a health-related condition considered important to prevent. Health Correlates,Risk Factor Scores,Risk Scores,Social Risk Factors,Population at Risk,Populations at Risk,Correlates, Health,Factor, Risk,Factor, Social Risk,Factors, Social Risk,Risk Factor,Risk Factor Score,Risk Factor, Social,Risk Factors, Social,Risk Score,Score, Risk,Score, Risk Factor,Social Risk Factor

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