Medical therapy does not confer stroke prevention for all patients: identification of high-risk patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis is still needed. 2019

Sungho Lim, and Maria Mora-Pinzon, and Taeyoung Park, and William Yoon, and Paul R Crisostomo, and Jae S Cho
Department of Vascular Surgery, Cleveland Clinic Foundation, Cleveland, OH, USA.

BACKGROUND Recent advances in best medical therapy (BMT) has been associated with reduced risk of stroke similar to that observed following surgical carotid revascularization (CR). Thus, it remains uncertain which subset(s) of patients would benefit from prophylactic CR+BMT for asymptomatic carotid stenosis (ACS) over BMT alone. The purpose of this study was to analyze the contemporary experience in the management of >70% ACS in an academic institution, to compare the short- and long-term outcomes of BMT alone against CR+BMT, and to identify risk factors for the development of future cerebrovascular events. METHODS A retrospective review of all patients with severe ACS between January 2005 and December 2012 at Loyola University Medical Center and its affiliated Edward Hines Jr. Veterans Administration Hospital was conducted. Baseline patient characteristics, medications, and follow-up data were collected from electronic medical records, and treatment outcomes were compared. The random forest method was performed to select potential important variables for the development of late stroke. The recursive partitioning regression analysis (RPRA) was performed to identify the patient subgroup at increased risk of future stroke. RESULTS Of 409 patients identified; 247 were treated with CR and 162 with BMT. Between these groups with CR+BMT and BMT alone, the mean age was 69.1±8.2 versus 75.5±9.0, respectively (P<0.01). Mean follow-up was 60.7±37.5 months. Early (30-day) outcomes of stroke, acute myocardial infarction or mortality did not differ between the treatment modalities (2.0% CR vs. 0.6% BMT, P=0.41). Probability of freedom from ipsilateral stroke, and any stroke at 1- and 5-year follow-up were also comparable between CR+BMT and BMT alone. However, random forest method and RPRA demonstrated that patients with history of diabetes and remote stroke treated with BMT alone were at a high risk for future stroke (36.4% in total, 7.2% per year). The diabetics with contralateral carotid stenosis >50% who are active smokers are at the highest risk for stroke after CR (20.0% in total, 4.0% per year). CONCLUSIONS Prophylactic CR+BMT does not provide overall late stroke prevention compared with BMT alone. Diabetics with a history of stroke, in particular, are at an increased risk of stroke despite BMT. Timely CR+BMT for high-risk patients is still indicated.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007087 Illinois State bounded on the north by Wisconsin, on the east by Lake Michigan, Indiana, and Kentucky, on the west by Missouri and Iowa, and on the south by Kentucky.
D008297 Male Males
D008875 Middle Aged An adult aged 45 - 64 years. Middle Age
D009203 Myocardial Infarction NECROSIS of the MYOCARDIUM caused by an obstruction of the blood supply to the heart (CORONARY CIRCULATION). Cardiovascular Stroke,Heart Attack,Myocardial Infarct,Cardiovascular Strokes,Heart Attacks,Infarct, Myocardial,Infarction, Myocardial,Infarctions, Myocardial,Infarcts, Myocardial,Myocardial Infarctions,Myocardial Infarcts,Stroke, Cardiovascular,Strokes, Cardiovascular
D012044 Regression Analysis Procedures for finding the mathematical function which best describes the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. In linear regression (see LINEAR MODELS) the relationship is constrained to be a straight line and LEAST-SQUARES ANALYSIS is used to determine the best fit. In logistic regression (see LOGISTIC MODELS) the dependent variable is qualitative rather than continuously variable and LIKELIHOOD FUNCTIONS are used to find the best relationship. In multiple regression, the dependent variable is considered to depend on more than a single independent variable. Regression Diagnostics,Statistical Regression,Analysis, Regression,Analyses, Regression,Diagnostics, Regression,Regression Analyses,Regression, Statistical,Regressions, Statistical,Statistical Regressions
D002317 Cardiovascular Agents Agents that affect the rate or intensity of cardiac contraction, blood vessel diameter, or blood volume. Cardioactive Agent,Cardioactive Drug,Cardiovascular Agent,Cardiovascular Drug,Cardioactive Agents,Cardioactive Drugs,Cardiovascular Drugs,Agent, Cardioactive,Agent, Cardiovascular,Drug, Cardioactive,Drug, Cardiovascular
D005260 Female Females
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000368 Aged A person 65 years of age or older. For a person older than 79 years, AGED, 80 AND OVER is available. Elderly
D000369 Aged, 80 and over Persons 80 years of age and older. Oldest Old

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