A Novel Nomogram and Risk Classification System Predicting Radiation Pneumonitis in Patients With Esophageal Cancer Receiving Radiation Therapy. 2019

Lu Wang, and Shuai Liang, and Chengqiang Li, and Xindong Sun, and Linlin Pang, and Xue Meng, and Jinming Yu
Department of Radiation Oncology, School of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China; Department of Radiation Oncology, Shandong Cancer Hospital and Institute, Shandong First Medical University and Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences, Jinan, China.

We initially aimed to ascertain the application value of inflammatory indexes in predicting severe acute radiation pneumonitis (SARP). Furthermore, a novel nomogram and risk classification system integrating clinicopathologic, dosimetric, and biological parameters were built to provide individualized risk assessment and accurate prediction of SARP in patients with esophageal cancer who received radiation therapy. All data were retrospectively collected from 416 esophageal cancer patients in 2 participating institutes. A novel nomogram was constructed that forecasted SARP based on logistic regression analyses. The concordance index, calibration curves, and decision curve analyses were used by both internal and external validation to demonstrate discriminatory and predictive capacity. Moreover, a corresponding risk classification system was generated by recursive partitioning analysis. The Subjective Global Assessment score, pulmonary fibrosis score, planning target volume/total lung volume, mean lung dose, and ratio of change regarding systemic immune inflammation index at 4 weeks in the course of treatment were independent predictors of SARP and finally incorporated into our nomogram. The concordance index of nomogram for SARP prediction was 0.852, which showed superior discriminatory power (range, 0.604-0.712). Calibration curves indicated favorable consistency between the nomogram prediction and the actual outcomes. Decision curve analyses exhibited satisfactory clinical utility. A risk classification system was established to perfectly divide patients into 3 different risk groups, which were low-risk group (6.1%, score 0-158), intermediate-risk group (37.3%, score 159-280), and high-risk group (78.9%, score >280). The Subjective Global Assessment score, pulmonary fibrosis score, planning target volume/total lung volume, mean lung dose, and ratio of change regarding systemic immune inflammation index at 4 weeks were potential valuable markers in predicting SARP. The developed nomogram and corresponding risk classification system with superior prediction ability for SARP could assist in patient counseling and provide guidance when making treatment decisions.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007958 Leukocyte Count The number of WHITE BLOOD CELLS per unit volume in venous BLOOD. A differential leukocyte count measures the relative numbers of the different types of white cells. Blood Cell Count, White,Differential Leukocyte Count,Leukocyte Count, Differential,Leukocyte Number,White Blood Cell Count,Count, Differential Leukocyte,Count, Leukocyte,Counts, Differential Leukocyte,Counts, Leukocyte,Differential Leukocyte Counts,Leukocyte Counts,Leukocyte Counts, Differential,Leukocyte Numbers,Number, Leukocyte,Numbers, Leukocyte
D008297 Male Males
D008875 Middle Aged An adult aged 45 - 64 years. Middle Age
D010976 Platelet Count The number of PLATELETS per unit volume in a sample of venous BLOOD. Blood Platelet Count,Blood Platelet Number,Platelet Number,Blood Platelet Counts,Blood Platelet Numbers,Count, Blood Platelet,Count, Platelet,Counts, Blood Platelet,Counts, Platelet,Number, Blood Platelet,Number, Platelet,Numbers, Blood Platelet,Numbers, Platelet,Platelet Count, Blood,Platelet Counts,Platelet Counts, Blood,Platelet Number, Blood,Platelet Numbers,Platelet Numbers, Blood
D011658 Pulmonary Fibrosis A process in which normal lung tissues are progressively replaced by FIBROBLASTS and COLLAGEN causing an irreversible loss of the ability to transfer oxygen into the bloodstream via PULMONARY ALVEOLI. Patients show progressive DYSPNEA finally resulting in death. Alveolitis, Fibrosing,Idiopathic Diffuse Interstitial Pulmonary Fibrosis,Fibroses, Pulmonary,Fibrosis, Pulmonary,Pulmonary Fibroses,Alveolitides, Fibrosing,Fibrosing Alveolitides,Fibrosing Alveolitis
D002138 Calibration Determination, by measurement or comparison with a standard, of the correct value of each scale reading on a meter or other measuring instrument; or determination of the settings of a control device that correspond to particular values of voltage, current, frequency or other output. Calibrations
D004938 Esophageal Neoplasms Tumors or cancer of the ESOPHAGUS. Cancer of Esophagus,Esophageal Cancer,Cancer of the Esophagus,Esophagus Cancer,Esophagus Neoplasm,Neoplasms, Esophageal,Cancer, Esophageal,Cancer, Esophagus,Cancers, Esophageal,Cancers, Esophagus,Esophageal Cancers,Esophageal Neoplasm,Esophagus Cancers,Esophagus Neoplasms,Neoplasm, Esophageal,Neoplasm, Esophagus,Neoplasms, Esophagus
D005260 Female Females
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000208 Acute Disease Disease having a short and relatively severe course. Acute Diseases,Disease, Acute,Diseases, Acute

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