A simple, step-by-step guide to interpreting decision curve analysis. 2019

Andrew J Vickers, and Ben van Calster, and Ewout W Steyerberg
1Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, 485 Lexington Avenue, 2nd Floor, New York, NY 10017 USA.

BACKGROUND Decision curve analysis is a method to evaluate prediction models and diagnostic tests that was introduced in a 2006 publication. Decision curves are now commonly reported in the literature, but there remains widespread misunderstanding of and confusion about what they mean. RESULTS In this paper, we present a didactic, step-by-step introduction to interpreting a decision curve analysis and answer some common questions about the method. We argue that many of the difficulties with interpreting decision curves can be solved by relabeling the y-axis as "benefit" and the x-axis as "preference." A model or test can be recommended for clinical use if it has the highest level of benefit across a range of clinically reasonable preferences. CONCLUSIONS Decision curves are readily interpretable if readers and authors follow a few simple guidelines.

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