Chronic kidney disease of unknown etiology (CKDu): Using a system dynamics model to conceptualize the multiple environmental causative pathways of the epidemic. 2020

Saroj Jayasinghe, and Yong-Guan Zhu
Department of Clinical Medicine, University of Colombo, Colombo, Sri Lanka. Electronic address: saroj@clinmed.cmb.ac.lk.

A chronic kidney disease of unknown etiology is devastating agricultural communities of Sri Lanka, Central America, areas of India, and Egypt. Researchers are yet to agree on its etio-pathogenesis despite many cross-sectional, case-control and cohort studies done in these countries. These approaches are broadly based on a reductionist approach. We propose a complementary paradigm based on complexity science to deepen our understanding of the disease. Complexity science views a population as system that has several dynamically interacting and inter-dependent sub-systems and is 'open' to the 'outer' environment. Health outcomes or epidemics are viewed as 'emergent' properties of the population. Using available literature from Sri Lanka, the paper presents a system dynamics model incorporating exposures from pesticides and heavy metals, drinking hard water with high levels of fluoride, poverty, low birth weight, micronutrient deficiencies and heat stress. This approach can be used to model the epidemic, understand the impacts of different factors, predict potential populations at risk, and formulate multi-pronged prevention strategies that target leverage points of the system.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D003430 Cross-Sectional Studies Studies in which the presence or absence of disease or other health-related variables are determined in each member of the study population or in a representative sample at one particular time. This contrasts with LONGITUDINAL STUDIES which are followed over a period of time. Disease Frequency Surveys,Prevalence Studies,Analysis, Cross-Sectional,Cross Sectional Analysis,Cross-Sectional Survey,Surveys, Disease Frequency,Analyses, Cross Sectional,Analyses, Cross-Sectional,Analysis, Cross Sectional,Cross Sectional Analyses,Cross Sectional Studies,Cross Sectional Survey,Cross-Sectional Analyses,Cross-Sectional Analysis,Cross-Sectional Study,Cross-Sectional Surveys,Disease Frequency Survey,Prevalence Study,Studies, Cross-Sectional,Studies, Prevalence,Study, Cross-Sectional,Study, Prevalence,Survey, Cross-Sectional,Survey, Disease Frequency,Surveys, Cross-Sectional
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D051436 Renal Insufficiency, Chronic Conditions in which the KIDNEYS perform below the normal level for more than three months. Chronic kidney insufficiency is classified by five stages according to the decline in GLOMERULAR FILTRATION RATE and the degree of kidney damage (as measured by the level of PROTEINURIA). The most severe form is the end-stage renal disease (CHRONIC KIDNEY FAILURE). (Kidney Foundation: Kidney Disease Outcome Quality Initiative, 2002) Kidney Insufficiency, Chronic,Chronic Kidney Diseases,Chronic Kidney Insufficiency,Chronic Renal Diseases,Chronic Renal Insufficiency,Chronic Kidney Disease,Chronic Kidney Insufficiencies,Chronic Renal Disease,Chronic Renal Insufficiencies,Disease, Chronic Kidney,Disease, Chronic Renal,Diseases, Chronic Kidney,Diseases, Chronic Renal,Kidney Disease, Chronic,Kidney Diseases, Chronic,Kidney Insufficiencies, Chronic,Renal Disease, Chronic,Renal Diseases, Chronic,Renal Insufficiencies, Chronic
D058872 Epidemics Sudden outbreaks of a disease in a country or region not previously recognized in that area, or a rapid increase in the number of new cases of a previous existing endemic disease. Epidemics can also refer to outbreaks of disease in animal or plant populations.

Related Publications

Saroj Jayasinghe, and Yong-Guan Zhu
May 2023, Environmental geochemistry and health,
Saroj Jayasinghe, and Yong-Guan Zhu
November 2023, Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987),
Saroj Jayasinghe, and Yong-Guan Zhu
December 2020, International journal of environmental research and public health,
Saroj Jayasinghe, and Yong-Guan Zhu
June 2021, Journal of water and health,
Copied contents to your clipboard!