Association of Medicaid Expansion With Opioid Overdose Mortality in the United States. 2020

Nicole Kravitz-Wirtz, and Corey S Davis, and William R Ponicki, and Ariadne Rivera-Aguirre, and Brandon D L Marshall, and Silvia S Martins, and Magdalena Cerdá
Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California Davis School of Medicine, Sacramento.

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) permits states to expand Medicaid coverage for most low-income adults to 138% of the federal poverty level and requires the provision of mental health and substance use disorder services on parity with other medical and surgical services. Uptake of substance use disorder services with medications for opioid use disorder has increased more in Medicaid expansion states than in nonexpansion states, but whether ACA-related Medicaid expansion is associated with county-level opioid overdose mortality has not been examined. To examine whether Medicaid expansion is associated with county × year counts of opioid overdose deaths overall and by class of opioid. This serial cross-sectional study used data from 3109 counties within 49 states and the District of Columbia from January 1, 2001, to December 31, 2017 (N = 3109 counties × 17 years = 52 853 county-years). Overdose deaths were modeled using hierarchical Bayesian Poisson models. Analyses were performed from April 1, 2018, to July 31, 2019. The primary exposure was state adoption of Medicaid expansion under the ACA, measured as the proportion of each calendar year during which a given state had Medicaid expansion in effect. By the end of study observation in 2017, a total of 32 states and the District of Columbia had expanded Medicaid eligibility. The outcomes of interest were annual county-level mortality from overdoses involving any opioid, natural and semisynthetic opioids, methadone, heroin, and synthetic opioids other than methadone, derived from the National Vital Statistics System multiple-cause-of-death files. A secondary analysis examined fatal overdoses involving all drugs. There were 383 091 opioid overdose fatalities across observed US counties during the study period, with a mean (SD) of 7.25 (27.45) deaths per county (range, 0-1145 deaths per county). Adoption of Medicaid expansion was associated with a 6% lower rate of total opioid overdose deaths compared with the rate in nonexpansion states (relative rate [RR], 0.94; 95% credible interval [CrI], 0.91-0.98). Counties in expansion states had an 11% lower rate of death involving heroin (RR, 0.89; 95% CrI, 0.84-0.94) and a 10% lower rate of death involving synthetic opioids other than methadone (RR, 0.90; 95% CrI, 0.84-0.96) compared with counties in nonexpansion states. An 11% increase was observed in methadone-related overdose mortality in expansion states (RR, 1.11; 95% CrI, 1.04-1.19). An association between Medicaid expansion and deaths involving natural and semisynthetic opioids was not well supported (RR, 1.03; 95% CrI, 0.98-1.08). Medicaid expansion was associated with reductions in total opioid overdose deaths, particularly deaths involving heroin and synthetic opioids other than methadone, but increases in methadone-related mortality. As states invest more resources in addressing the opioid overdose epidemic, attention should be paid to the role that Medicaid expansion may play in reducing opioid overdose mortality, in part through greater access to medications for opioid use disorder.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008297 Male Males
D008484 Medicaid Federal program, created by Public Law 89-97, Title XIX, a 1965 amendment to the Social Security Act, administered by the states, that provides health care benefits to indigent and medically indigent persons. Dental Medicaid Program,Medical Assistance, Title 19,Dental Medicaid Programs,Medicaid Program, Dental,Medicaid Programs, Dental,Program, Dental Medicaid,Programs, Dental Medicaid
D008875 Middle Aged An adult aged 45 - 64 years. Middle Age
D009293 Opioid-Related Disorders Disorders related to or resulting from abuse or misuse of OPIOIDS. Opiate Addiction,Opiate Dependence,Opioid Misuse,Opioid Use Disorder,Prescription Opioid Abuse,Prescription Opioid Misuse,Addiction, Opioid,Dependence, Opioid,Opiate Abuse,Opioid Abuse,Opioid Addiction,Opioid Dependence,Abuse, Opiate,Abuse, Opioid,Abuse, Prescription Opioid,Addiction, Opiate,Dependence, Opiate,Disorder, Opioid Use,Misuse, Opioid,Misuse, Prescription Opioid,Opiate Abuses,Opioid Abuse, Prescription,Opioid Abuses,Opioid Addictions,Opioid Dependences,Opioid Misuses,Opioid Related Disorders,Opioid Use Disorders,Opioid-Related Disorder,Prescription Opioid Abuses,Prescription Opioid Misuses
D003430 Cross-Sectional Studies Studies in which the presence or absence of disease or other health-related variables are determined in each member of the study population or in a representative sample at one particular time. This contrasts with LONGITUDINAL STUDIES which are followed over a period of time. Disease Frequency Surveys,Prevalence Studies,Analysis, Cross-Sectional,Cross Sectional Analysis,Cross-Sectional Survey,Surveys, Disease Frequency,Analyses, Cross Sectional,Analyses, Cross-Sectional,Analysis, Cross Sectional,Cross Sectional Analyses,Cross Sectional Studies,Cross Sectional Survey,Cross-Sectional Analyses,Cross-Sectional Analysis,Cross-Sectional Study,Cross-Sectional Surveys,Disease Frequency Survey,Prevalence Study,Studies, Cross-Sectional,Studies, Prevalence,Study, Cross-Sectional,Study, Prevalence,Survey, Cross-Sectional,Survey, Disease Frequency,Surveys, Cross-Sectional
D005260 Female Females
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000293 Adolescent A person 13 to 18 years of age. Adolescence,Youth,Adolescents,Adolescents, Female,Adolescents, Male,Teenagers,Teens,Adolescent, Female,Adolescent, Male,Female Adolescent,Female Adolescents,Male Adolescent,Male Adolescents,Teen,Teenager,Youths
D000328 Adult A person having attained full growth or maturity. Adults are of 19 through 44 years of age. For a person between 19 and 24 years of age, YOUNG ADULT is available. Adults
D000701 Analgesics, Opioid Compounds with activity like OPIATE ALKALOIDS, acting at OPIOID RECEPTORS. Properties include induction of ANALGESIA or NARCOSIS. Opioid,Opioid Analgesic,Opioid Analgesics,Opioids,Full Opioid Agonists,Opioid Full Agonists,Opioid Mixed Agonist-Antagonists,Opioid Partial Agonists,Partial Opioid Agonists,Agonist-Antagonists, Opioid Mixed,Agonists, Full Opioid,Agonists, Opioid Full,Agonists, Opioid Partial,Agonists, Partial Opioid,Analgesic, Opioid,Full Agonists, Opioid,Mixed Agonist-Antagonists, Opioid,Opioid Agonists, Full,Opioid Agonists, Partial,Opioid Mixed Agonist Antagonists,Partial Agonists, Opioid

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