Empirical analysis of climate change factors affecting cereal yield: evidence from Turkey. 2020

Abbas Ali Chandio, and Ilhan Ozturk, and Waqar Akram, and Fayyaz Ahmad, and Aamir Ali Mirani
College of Economics, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu, 611130, China. alichandio@sicau.edu.cn.

This research has examined the dynamic linkages among climate change factors, such as CO2 emissions, temperature, rainfall, and cereal yield in Turkey from 1968 to 2014. At first step, we tested stationary properties of the climatic factors and crop yield by using both traditional and breakpoint unit root tests. After the confirmation of given properties, we used the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to capture the dynamic relationship among the variables in the given span of time. The empirical results show that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship that exists between climate change factors and cereal yield. CO2 emissions and average temperature have a diverse effect on the cereal yield, whereas average rainfall has a positive effect on the cereal yield in both the long run and short run. To check the causality, we use the Granger causality test that reveals a significant effect of climate change variables on the cereal yield. The unidirectional causal link is significant among temperature and rainfall factors. The results show that the cereal yield is affected by more climate factors like rain fall and temperature due to CO2 emissions as compared to land and labor use. Based on the findings of the study, few suggestions have been made to address the climate change factors. Devise agriculture-specific adaptation policy for the farmers to build their capacity and resilience to tackle climate changes, for example, farm practices. Agriculture research and development should work on cereal crop varieties that can tolerate the high temperature and precipitation. These policies could help the agriculture sector to sustain production and allocation efficiency in the long run.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D011891 Rain Water particles that fall from the ATMOSPHERE. Rains
D002245 Carbon Dioxide A colorless, odorless gas that can be formed by the body and is necessary for the respiration cycle of plants and animals. Carbonic Anhydride,Anhydride, Carbonic,Dioxide, Carbon
D002523 Edible Grain SEEDS used as a major nutritional source, most often the grain from the POACEAE family. Cereals,Cereal Grain,Cereal,Cereal Grains,Edible Grains,Grain, Cereal,Grain, Edible,Grains, Cereal,Grains, Edible
D000383 Agriculture The science, art or practice of cultivating soil, producing crops, and raising livestock. Agronomy,Agricultural Development,Farming,Agronomies,Development, Agricultural
D014421 Turkey Country in Southeastern Europe and Southwestern Asia bordering the Black Sea, between Bulgaria and Georgia, and bordering the Aegean Sea and the Mediterranean Sea, between Greece and Syria. The capital is Ankara. Turkiye
D057231 Climate Change Any significant change in measures of climate (such as temperature, precipitation, or wind) lasting for an extended period (decades or longer). It may result from natural factors such as changes in the sun's intensity, natural processes within the climate system such as changes in ocean circulation, or human activities. Change, Climate,Changes, Climate,Climate Changes

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