Risk prediction in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: Direct comparison of the MEGNA score and the 8th edition of the UICC/AJCC Cancer staging system. 2020

Felix Hahn, and Lukas Müller, and Aline Mähringer-Kunz, and Sebastian Schotten, and Christoph Düber, and Jan B Hinrichs, and Sabine K Maschke, and Peter R Galle, and Fabian Bartsch, and Hauke Lang, and Arndt Weinmann, and Roman Kloeckner
Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Johannes Gutenberg-University Medical Center Mainz, Mainz, Germany.

External validation of prognostic risk models is essential before they are implemented in clinical practice. This study evaluated the recently developed MEGNA score for survival prediction after resection of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC), with a focus on the direct comparison of its prognostic value to that of the current International Union Against Cancer (UICC)/American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) Cancer staging system. Between 1997 and 2018, 417 consecutive patients with ICC were referred to our tertiary care centre and were retrospectively identified out of a dedicated clinical database. Of this group, 203 patients underwent surgical resection and met the inclusion criteria. Multivariate analysis was performed to assess the predictors of the recently proposed MEGNA score regarding overall survival (OS). Concordance indices (C-indices) and integrated Brier scores (IBS) were calculated to assess the ability of both the MEGNA score and the current (8th) edition of the UICC/AJCC Cancer staging system to predict individual patient outcome. Stratification according to the MEGNA score resulted in a median OS of 34.5 months, 26.1 months, 21.5 months, and 16.6 months for MEGNA scores 0, 1, 2, and ≥3, respectively (log rank p < 0.001). However, of the five factors that contribute to the MEGNA score, age > 60 years was not a predictor for poor OS in our cohort. The C-index for the MEGNA score was 0.58, the IBS was 0.193. The 8th edition of the UICC/AJCC system performed slightly better, with a C-index of 0.61 and an IBS of 0.186. The ability of the MEGNA score to predict individual patient outcome was only moderate in this external validation. Its prognostic value did not reach that of the more widely known and used UICC/AJCC system. However, neither scoring system performed well enough to support clear-cut clinical decisions.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007390 International Agencies International organizations which provide health-related or other cooperative services. Agencies, International,Agency, International,International Agency
D008297 Male Males
D008495 Medical Oncology A subspecialty of internal medicine concerned with the study of neoplasms. Oncology, Medical,Clinical Oncology,Oncology, Clinical
D008875 Middle Aged An adult aged 45 - 64 years. Middle Age
D009367 Neoplasm Staging Methods which attempt to express in replicable terms the extent of the neoplasm in the patient. Cancer Staging,Staging, Neoplasm,Tumor Staging,TNM Classification,TNM Staging,TNM Staging System,Classification, TNM,Classifications, TNM,Staging System, TNM,Staging Systems, TNM,Staging, Cancer,Staging, TNM,Staging, Tumor,System, TNM Staging,Systems, TNM Staging,TNM Classifications,TNM Staging Systems
D011237 Predictive Value of Tests In screening and diagnostic tests, the probability that a person with a positive test is a true positive (i.e., has the disease), is referred to as the predictive value of a positive test; whereas, the predictive value of a negative test is the probability that the person with a negative test does not have the disease. Predictive value is related to the sensitivity and specificity of the test. Negative Predictive Value,Positive Predictive Value,Predictive Value Of Test,Predictive Values Of Tests,Negative Predictive Values,Positive Predictive Values,Predictive Value, Negative,Predictive Value, Positive
D011379 Prognosis A prediction of the probable outcome of a disease based on a individual's condition and the usual course of the disease as seen in similar situations. Prognostic Factor,Prognostic Factors,Factor, Prognostic,Factors, Prognostic,Prognoses
D012107 Research Design A plan for collecting and utilizing data so that desired information can be obtained with sufficient precision or so that an hypothesis can be tested properly. Experimental Design,Data Adjustment,Data Reporting,Design, Experimental,Designs, Experimental,Error Sources,Experimental Designs,Matched Groups,Methodology, Research,Problem Formulation,Research Methodology,Research Proposal,Research Strategy,Research Technics,Research Techniques,Scoring Methods,Adjustment, Data,Adjustments, Data,Data Adjustments,Design, Research,Designs, Research,Error Source,Formulation, Problem,Formulations, Problem,Group, Matched,Groups, Matched,Matched Group,Method, Scoring,Methods, Scoring,Problem Formulations,Proposal, Research,Proposals, Research,Reporting, Data,Research Designs,Research Proposals,Research Strategies,Research Technic,Research Technique,Scoring Method,Source, Error,Sources, Error,Strategies, Research,Strategy, Research,Technic, Research,Technics, Research,Technique, Research,Techniques, Research
D005260 Female Females
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man

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