Assessment of an Updated Neonatal Research Network Extremely Preterm Birth Outcome Model in the Vermont Oxford Network. 2020

Matthew A Rysavy, and Jeffrey D Horbar, and Edward F Bell, and Lei Li, and Lucy T Greenberg, and Jon E Tyson, and Ravi M Patel, and Waldemar A Carlo, and Noelle E Younge, and Charles E Green, and Erika M Edwards, and Susan R Hintz, and Michele C Walsh, and Jeffrey S Buzas, and Abhik Das, and Rosemary D Higgins, and
Stead Family Department of Pediatrics, University of Iowa, Iowa City.

The Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Neonatal Research Network (NRN) extremely preterm birth outcome model is widely used for prognostication by practitioners caring for families expecting extremely preterm birth. The model provides information on mean outcomes from 1998 to 2003 and does not account for substantial variation in outcomes among US hospitals. To update and validate the NRN extremely preterm birth outcome model for most extremely preterm infants in the United States. This prognostic study included 3 observational cohorts from January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2016, at 19 US centers in the NRN (derivation cohort) and 637 US centers in Vermont Oxford Network (VON) (validation cohorts). Actively treated infants born at 22 weeks' 0 days' to 25 weeks' 6 days' gestation and weighing 401 to 1000 g, including 4176 in the NRN for 2006 to 2012, 45 179 in VON for 2006 to 2012, and 25 969 in VON for 2013 to 2016, were studied. VON cohorts comprised more than 85% of eligible US births. Data analysis was performed from May 1, 2017, to March 31, 2019. Predictive variables used in the original model, including infant sex, birth weight, plurality, gestational age at birth, and exposure to antenatal corticosteroids. The main outcome was death before discharge. Secondary outcomes included neurodevelopmental impairment at 18 to 26 months' corrected age and measures of hospital resource use (days of hospitalization and ventilator use). Among 4176 actively treated infants in the NRN cohort (48% female; mean [SD] gestational age, 24.2 [0.8] weeks), survival was 63% vs 62% among 3702 infants in the era of the original model (47% female; mean [SD] gestational age, 24.2 [0.8] weeks). In the concurrent (2006-2012) VON cohort, survival was 66% among 45 179 actively treated infants (47% female; mean [SD] gestational age, 24.1 [0.8] weeks) and 70% among 25 969 infants from 2013 to 2016 (48% female; mean [SD] gestational age, 24.1 [0.8] weeks). Model C statistics were 0.74 in the 2006-2012 validation cohort and 0.73 in the 2013-2016 validation cohort. With the use of decision curve analysis to compare the model with a gestational age-only approach to prognostication, the updated model showed a predictive advantage. The birth hospital contributed equally as much to prediction of survival as gestational age (20%) but less than the other factors combined (60%). An updated model using well-known factors to predict survival for extremely preterm infants performed moderately well when applied to large US cohorts. Because survival rates change over time, the model requires periodic updating. The hospital of birth contributed substantially to outcome prediction.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007223 Infant A child between 1 and 23 months of age. Infants
D007226 Infant Mortality Postnatal deaths from BIRTH to 365 days after birth in a given population. Postneonatal mortality represents deaths between 28 days and 365 days after birth (as defined by National Center for Health Statistics). Neonatal mortality represents deaths from birth to 27 days after birth. Neonatal Mortality,Mortality, Infant,Postneonatal Mortality,Infant Mortalities,Mortalities, Infant,Mortalities, Neonatal,Mortalities, Postneonatal,Mortality, Neonatal,Mortality, Postneonatal,Neonatal Mortalities,Postneonatal Mortalities
D007231 Infant, Newborn An infant during the first 28 days after birth. Neonate,Newborns,Infants, Newborn,Neonates,Newborn,Newborn Infant,Newborn Infants
D007232 Infant, Newborn, Diseases Diseases of newborn infants present at birth (congenital) or developing within the first month of birth. It does not include hereditary diseases not manifesting at birth or within the first 30 days of life nor does it include inborn errors of metabolism. Both HEREDITARY DISEASES and METABOLISM, INBORN ERRORS are available as general concepts. Neonatal Diseases,Disease, Neonatal,Diseases, Neonatal,Neonatal Disease
D008297 Male Males
D011379 Prognosis A prediction of the probable outcome of a disease based on a individual's condition and the usual course of the disease as seen in similar situations. Prognostic Factor,Prognostic Factors,Factor, Prognostic,Factors, Prognostic,Prognoses
D005260 Female Females
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D014481 United States A country in NORTH AMERICA between CANADA and MEXICO.
D014707 Vermont State bounded on the north by Canada, on the east by New Hampshire, on the south by Massachusetts, and on the west by New York.

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