Trends in the incidence and survival of patients with esophageal cancer: A SEER database analysis. 2020

Haiqi He, and Nanzheng Chen, and Yue Hou, and Zhe Wang, and Yong Zhang, and Guangjian Zhang, and Junke Fu
Department of Thoracic Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China.

Recent studies have indicated that the incidence of esophageal cancer has declined in the past decade in the U.S. However, trends in the incidence and survival have not been thoroughly examined. Data from 46 063 patients with esophageal cancer between 1973 and 2015 were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The trends in the age-adjusted incidence and survival were analyzed using joinpoint regression models. The age-adjusted incidence of esophageal cancer increased from 5.55 to 7.44 per 100 000 person-years between 1973 and 2004. Later, it decreased at an annual percentage change of 1.23%. In the last 40 years, the strong male predominance increased slightly. Importantly, the percentage of patients with localized stage of squamous cell cancer decreased. It was observed that the incidence of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma declined since 1986, while the incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma sharply increased since 1973 and surpassed the rate of squamous cell cancer, mainly due to the increase in the incidence among men. Consistently, the estimated 40-year limited-duration prevalence of esophageal adenocarcinoma was higher than that of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Additionally, we observed a modest but significant improvement in survival during the study period. The incidence of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma has decreased significantly over the past four decades in the U.S., while the incidence of adenocarcinoma has increased, particularly among men. Overall, the long-term survival of patients with esophageal cancer is poor but it has improved over the past decades, especially for the localized disease. Significant findings of the study The incidence of esophageal cancer has decreased at an annual percentage change of 1.23% since 2004. The incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma has sharply increased since 1973 and surpassed the rate of squamous cell cancer, mainly due to the increase in the incidence among men. What this study adds There has been a shift in the prevalence of esophageal cancer histological subtypes over the past decades in the U.S. We found that the incidence of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma has continued to decrease, while the esophageal adenocarcinoma rate has continued to increase.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008297 Male Males
D008875 Middle Aged An adult aged 45 - 64 years. Middle Age
D009026 Mortality All deaths reported in a given population. CFR Case Fatality Rate,Crude Death Rate,Crude Mortality Rate,Death Rate,Age Specific Death Rate,Age-Specific Death Rate,Case Fatality Rate,Decline, Mortality,Determinants, Mortality,Differential Mortality,Excess Mortality,Mortality Decline,Mortality Determinants,Mortality Rate,Mortality, Differential,Mortality, Excess,Age-Specific Death Rates,Case Fatality Rates,Crude Death Rates,Crude Mortality Rates,Death Rate, Age-Specific,Death Rate, Crude,Death Rates,Determinant, Mortality,Differential Mortalities,Excess Mortalities,Mortalities,Mortality Declines,Mortality Determinant,Mortality Rate, Crude,Mortality Rates,Rate, Age-Specific Death,Rate, Case Fatality,Rate, Crude Death,Rate, Crude Mortality,Rate, Death,Rate, Mortality,Rates, Case Fatality
D011379 Prognosis A prediction of the probable outcome of a disease based on a individual's condition and the usual course of the disease as seen in similar situations. Prognostic Factor,Prognostic Factors,Factor, Prognostic,Factors, Prognostic,Prognoses
D004938 Esophageal Neoplasms Tumors or cancer of the ESOPHAGUS. Cancer of Esophagus,Esophageal Cancer,Cancer of the Esophagus,Esophagus Cancer,Esophagus Neoplasm,Neoplasms, Esophageal,Cancer, Esophageal,Cancer, Esophagus,Cancers, Esophageal,Cancers, Esophagus,Esophageal Cancers,Esophageal Neoplasm,Esophagus Cancers,Esophagus Neoplasms,Neoplasm, Esophageal,Neoplasm, Esophagus,Neoplasms, Esophagus
D005260 Female Females
D005500 Follow-Up Studies Studies in which individuals or populations are followed to assess the outcome of exposures, procedures, or effects of a characteristic, e.g., occurrence of disease. Followup Studies,Follow Up Studies,Follow-Up Study,Followup Study,Studies, Follow-Up,Studies, Followup,Study, Follow-Up,Study, Followup
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000077277 Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma A carcinoma that originates usually from cells on the surface of the middle and lower third of the ESOPHAGUS. Tumor cells exhibit typical squamous morphology and form large polypoid lesions. Mutations in RNF6, LZTS1, TGFBR2, DEC1, and WWOX1 genes are associated with this cancer. Oesophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma
D000328 Adult A person having attained full growth or maturity. Adults are of 19 through 44 years of age. For a person between 19 and 24 years of age, YOUNG ADULT is available. Adults

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